Beyond the upper level disturbance that is poised to move through the region on Tuesday and Wednesday, a stronger storm system is setting up for the weekend for the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. The front looks particularly strong, at least from several days out's distance, and it's possible that this could produce the threat for strong or even severe thunderstorms on Mother's Day as it moves through.
Before Sunday's frontal boundary passage, though, a chance of thunderstorms could exist on Saturday as warmer air pushes northeast along the frontal boundary thanks to a surface low pushing along the front. Both the Euro and GFS show at least the possibility for some thunderstorms around parts of the region on Saturday afternoon, with a greater threat of thunder on Sunday.
This week presents a pretty good shot at getting some needed rain around here -- the prospect of picking up an inch or more of rain between now and next Sunday seems legit according to model guidance...the region's been running with a decent rainfall deficit the past few weeks and could use a steady rain to help get caught up. Tuesday into Wednesday will provide that first opportunity in the week for a catch up rainfall. However, the prospect of a stronger frontal boundary this weekend suggests that we could see a bit more rain and thunder this weekend as well, some of which may very well be strong at times.