Thursday, May 23, 2013

Slight Risk Of Severe In Parts Of Region

The Storm Prediction Center has part of the region under a slight risk for severe weather today -- essentially it's north and west of I-95 through Pennsylvania, Delaware, and New Jersey that are at risk for some strong or damaging winds from any thunderstorms that fire up.

Given that sunshine may be a bit of a premium today, the threat of severe is more on the borderline isolated side. However, the more sun that does pop through (and some of the higher resolution models do paint a bit less cloud cover in the sky than the GFS/Euro later this afternoon), the better the threat ultimately is for some severe weather around the region later this afternoon and this evening.

Regardless of thunderstorm intensity from a severe criteria standpoint, the biggest threat in any thunderstorm that develops will be heavy rainfall. Modeling continues to paint the possibility of isolated two inch rains in areas that pick up multiple thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight around the region.  The best chances for this would reside over the Poconos, Lehigh Valley, Berks County (generally west and northwest of the city).

The graphic below represents 7 PM tonight on one of the higher resolution models -- thunderstorms are scattered around, some heavy, mostly to the west of the city. The best chance for stronger thunderstorm activity will be after 2 PM today but there is the risk of a shower or storm at any point through the day.

More: Current Weather Page