Friday, May 31, 2013

Slight Risk of Severe on Sunday Night

The heat will finally subside at the end of this weekend, although 90's could linger through Sunday before the cool front that puts an end to our first run of 90 degree weather.  This front has enough pop with it and will be working into a warm enough airmass that the risk of strong and severe thunderstorms exists for Sunday across a good chunk of the region.

A slight risk for Sunday has been designated along and northwest of the New Jersey Turnpike, as well as for northern Delaware and the eastern two-thirds of Pennsylvania.

The tricky thing with Sunday's storms and determining just how strong they will be when they get into the region will be timing -- most of this looks to be an evening/overnight type event on Sunday night for the city that perhaps lingers into Monday before gradually easing southeast off the coast.  The risk for strong and severe storms is definitely on the map but it's more likely those occur in Central and Northeast Pennsylvania where storms will develop and track over those areas earlier, feeding off of the daytime heating and extra energy from the sun's influence.

Knowing the threat is mostly an overnight one at this point, the bigger threats for us are likely heavy rain with some gusty winds as these storms move through.  They aren't modeled to move quickly so the potential for an inch or two inches of rain in a relatively short period of time does exist on Sunday night and early Monday morning across parts of the region.

We'll update the threat as we work through the weekend -- as of now, it appears this is mostly a Sunday night threat for the city.  The majority of the weekend will be dry although a few thunderstorms are possible tomorrow afternoon to our west and northwest.