Thursday, May 16, 2013

Sunday Uncertainties South of City

Today's warmth will gradually give way to a slightly cooler weekend as the cool front that lies nearby drifts a bit further south. Thanks to high pressure that will gradually move over New England, we end up getting an east wind off of the Atlantic. That in itself provides enough natural air conditioning given ocean temperatures are still south of 60 degrees to provide us a bit of a cooler weekend.  Temperatures on Saturday likely hang out in the lower, perhaps middle 70's on both afternoons locally.   Modeling suggests Saturday ends up the nicer and slightly milder of the two days as there appears to be more sunshine in the offing for the whole of the region.

Sunday is where uncertainties crop up into the forecast to our south -- the front slides down to near the Outer Banks, draped northwest through Virginia and into Ohio, but then stalls and begins to return northward later Saturday into Sunday as a warm front (see below). As the front moves northeast, showers are possible along the front thanks to a disturbance that some of the modeling out there is trying to push along the front.  At this point, southern areas could see some scattered showers and storms on Sunday afternoon, with the city and points north perhaps getting some showers on Monday as the front lifts north.  It's not a lock or guarantee that this will happen as detailed -- the front is pretty weak as it lifts north so the amount of precipitation may not be all that significant but it does separate 80's (which we get back into next week) from the cooler 60's and 70's that will be overhead.  That transition zone will probably have some cloudiness and precipitation to contend with and it will gradually push on through.

Sunday looks to be iffy south of town, with Monday an iffy weather day locally.  The front should lift north by Monday night and put us all back squarely into the warm sector for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.