Tuesday, May 21, 2013

Thunder Threats The Next Couple Of Days

A warm and soupy airmass is trudging on in over the next three days, providing us a taste of summer as highs get into the 80's each of the next three afternoons while also giving us some passing thunderstorms at times between now and late Thursday night as the storm system that is producing severe weather in the Midwest takes its time pushing east, slowed by a subtropical high over the Southeast.

The stalled front over us fizzles and allows the increased warmth to push in but another weak front tries to push south into New England and Upstate New York. With the boundaries in place, humidity and moisture in place in the atmosphere, the threat for isolated and scattered thunderstorms is around each day through Thursday.

Wednesday's risk for severe weather is to our west, including Scranton, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland.  Most of the focus for thunderstorm activity on Wednesday stays out there but we can't completely limit the threat of thunder around here.  That said, it will be warm as temperatures get into the mid and upper 80's in many spots.

The cold front finally reaches us on Thursday and provides the "best" chance for thunderstorm activity to be more widespread. Dew points in the 60's, temperatures in the 80's, and a pretty decent frontal boundary pushing east really do set the stage for some stronger thunderstorms and a good deal of heavy rain as they move through.

These likely will not be on the order of what has been moving through the Midwest and Plains the past couple of days but will still be capable of heavy rain, gusty winds, and perhaps hail as well.