Saturday, May 11, 2013

Updating Today's Thunder Threat

Today is featuring on and off shower and storm activity -- the key in today is that it will not storm at all times through the day but there will be periods of time where thunderstorms will impact parts of the region.  This morning's shower and storm activity across Delaware and South Jersey is one such example of this.

More are expected this afternoon thanks to the approach of a cool front and the influence of daytime heating on the atmosphere.  With a humid airmass (dewpoints in the 60's) and temperatures in the 70's, there's enough there to fire up storms later on.

Higher resolution modeling does vary a bit on where storms will fire but it does appear like broken lines or scattered lines of storms should fire up in a number of spots around the region as we work into the afternoon -- whether they are more numerous north or south of the city is dependent on the high resolution model -- the Storm Prediction Center's high res model paints stronger storms south of the city while the NAM's high resolution variant shows those storms lining up north.

Regardless of where they fire up, localized downpours and gusty winds are possible within any thunderstorm development later on today.   The Storm Prediction Center has put South Jersey and Delaware into a slight risk of severe weather this afternoon, with gusty winds the rationale for any severe storm.  Not everyone will get severe weather and not everyone will get bad thunderstorms but the possibility does exist that a couple of storms could produce strong enough winds to warrant severe warnings this afternoon south and southeast of the city.

More:  Current Weather Page