Monday, May 13, 2013

Wednesday's Reintroduction To Warmth May Have A Thundery Price

The push of warmth that will eventually bring us 80 degree weather on Thursday will have a disturbance associated with it on Wednesday afternoon into evening, which will result in a chance of a few thunderstorms along and in advance of the warm front as it pushes east towards us.  The timing of the disturbance and the warm front varies a bit between the models but impacts generally center around Wednesday midday through evening.  The NAM, a bit slower than the other models, suggests the evening as the main time for impact locally but does show the thunder potential across the Mid Atlantic and west into Western Pennsylvania.

Wednesday's temperature forecast is a bit tricky due to the timing element of clouds and potential thunderstorms being around the region but we should be on the way towards warmer air.  Right now, we're forecasting lower and middle 70's but it's going to be one of those days where those to the north of Philadelphia will be cooler than those to the south and southwest.  The NAM is the warmest for us -- mid 70's into Philadelphia (it's also the slowest with bringing those thunderstorms on in).

Some of the storms that move through on Wednesday could be locally strong if not severe -- best chances for any of that to take place will be to the north and west of the city. Hail may be a bit of a threat with any of the stronger storms on Wednesday afternoon.

Regardless of timing, everything should push away to allow Thursday to be a warm day.  We don't shake the thunder threat locally but we should see 80's in most locations.