Sunday, June 23, 2013

Forecast For Monday, June 24, 2013

It looks to be mostly cloudy this evening with a few scattered showers and thunderstorms around. Some locally heavy downpours are likely. Fog is possible, especially in locations that see some rain early this evening. Once we lose daytime heating, much of the precipitation should diminish.

Much of the upcoming week looks hot and humid with the threat of scattered showers and thunderstorms around each afternoon and evening. The lowest chance of thunderstorms this week appears to be during Wednesday and the highest chances for thunderstorms looks to be on Thursday and Friday.  Our hottest day may end up being Wednesday, which will coincide with what we expect to be the least thundery day of the week ahead.  It's possible we nudge a bit higher than that 90-93 range on Wednesday, dependent on how much sunshine we get and the placement of a backdoor cold front. On Monday and Tuesday, temperatures look to at least hit 90 in the city. A thunderstorm could of course prevent hitting 90 should one pop-up near the city itself and early enough in the afternoon, so we will watch that closely.

The end of the next round of heat approaches on Thursday as a trough of low pressure in the atmosphere moves into the Great Lakes, accompanied by a cold front. The pattern favors a slow progression of this front and it may have a difficult time clearing our region. It might not be until the second half of next weekend before drier air can completely remove precipitation chances from the forecast.

With the wet month of June continuing, the flash flood guidance remains on the low side. Any locally heavy rainfall during the week may lead to flash flooding. In addition, we could build up some decent instability during the afternoon hours due to the decent heating and this may result in the possibility of localized severe weather. This looks most likely towards the end of the week when we have a stronger cold front moving in and also some increasing shear accompanying that front.