Saturday, June 22, 2013

Forecast for Sunday, June 23, 2013

As we head into tonight, skies will be partly cloudy. It does appear that the atmosphere will become favorable for the development of fog late tonight and early on Sunday Morning. Fog on Sunday could become a factor in how high temperatures climb. Anytime you get foggy days near the time of higher sun angles, usually the fog doesn't have a lasting impact and is short-lived. So I think it is reasonable to add a few degrees onto the MOS guidance which takes the city into the upper eighties with some areas flirting with 90. There is a weak disturbance that may spark an isolated thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening hours.

Monday through Wednesday looks to be a hot and humid period with high pressure off to our east pumping in hot air and moisture. Several disturbances should allow for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. The heat and humidity will allow for instability to build up each day and this may lead to some locally strong thunderstorms. Two caveats to hitting 90 degrees is if any former thunderstorm complex can throw some high cloudiness our way during the daytime hours or if a backdoor cold front is further south than currently indicated. It would probably take a fairly thick cloud deck this time of the year for remnant clouds to have an impact, but we will continue to monitor. It doesn't look like we will be getting rid of the thunderstorm chances anytime soon as additional triggering mechanisms look to impact us through the start of next weekend.

I am not anticipating a "washout" this week. However, any afternoon or evening could feature a scattering of thunderstorms and where they hit…there could be some localized heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. It is very possible that some areas may not see much until Thursday and Friday of this week. With flash flood guidance still running low, despite a few days of dry weather, flash flooding remains a concern heading into this week.