Monday, June 24, 2013

Potentially Stormy End Of Week

The week starts off on a hot note, one that carries through Thursday despite chances for storms popping up around town nearly every afternoon.  However, a trough that's currently in the Plains and in the Midwest will gradually nudge to the East Coast by week's end. This trough will struggle to push east in much of a hurry, blocked by a strengthening Bermuda High in the Western Atlantic that builds northwards towards Newfoundland.  The result is a perfect scenario for any approaching frontal boundaries to stall near or just offshore...

Such scenarios typically yield chances for thunderstorms and perhaps more heavy rainfall.  The graphic above shows the trough over the Great Lakes and the Northeast in relation to that Bermuda High in the Atlantic, with us in the flow of moisture pushing up the East Coast from Florida and from the Gulf of Mexico.

Thursday PM and Friday offer a particularly noted threat for thunderstorms as the first front approaches the East Coast, stalling out nearby as we work into later Friday.  A second chance of widespread thunder seems to loom on Sunday with another disturbance approaching the region.  These threats may bring some strong or severe storms to the region along with heavy rainfall to more widespread areas.  Early modeling hints at a couple of inches of rain falling as a possibility for Friday through doesn't mean that will be reality but if this setup in the atmosphere does indeed materialize and we get a stalled out front we could indeed see the increased risk of heavy rain to close out this week.