Sunday, June 16, 2013

Scattering Of Stronger Thunder Possible Late This Afternoon

We're not under a slight risk for severe weather around here today -- there is a "see text" categorization which pretty much means that there's a chance of a rogue severe or stronger thunderstorm or two later on but the risk level isn't quite high enough to justify the classification of slight risk (at least as of this morning).

That said, a disturbance is approaching the region today as evidence by the increase in cloud cover and the few sprinkles passing through early this morning.  We should see some sunshine at times, especially south and east of the city, and temperatures will gradually warm in response later on.

Modeling doesn't indicate a widespread threat of thunder, with some models just suggesting more of a showery smattering later on through Southeast Pennsylvania, South Jersey, and Delaware.  The Storm Prediction Center's high resolution model (seen below) shows a bit more potential for thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening, with a couple of scattered storms around at 6 PM.  Nothing overly severe but a localized stronger storm may pop.

Outside of the high resolution model, most models indicate a less widespread coverage of thunder.  Be aware in case of a few stronger storms later on, with the best chances locally after 4 or 5 PM.  Most of today will be dry, most of the region will be dry, but the threat of some thunder later on does exist.

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