Monday, June 17, 2013

Storm Chances Around Tomorrow Afternoon

We're looking at a similar setup to what we had on Sunday around here -- a frontal boundary sliding through the region with a mix of clouds and sunshine -- for Tuesday. It will be warmer -- perhaps approaching 90 tomorrow afternoon around the city -- and sunnier than it was yesterday. Instead of a disturbance like Sunday, we're relying on frontal boundary dynamics to be the kicker for thunderstorms as the main disturbance tracks through New England.

From a "what it ends up doing" standpoint, it does look awfully similar though. A 5% chance according to the Storm Prediction Center of anything becoming severe and scattered thunderstorms in spots.

Some of the more aggressive higher resolution variants of the NAM paint some pretty nasty thunderstorms across portions of Pennsylvania tomorrow afternoon and evening; however, most modeling indicates scattered to widely scattered coverage of thunderstorms around, mostly north or northwest of the city.  The Penn State version of the NAM's high resolution model (below) shows a scattered line of thunderstorms through the state tomorrow afternoon, but no solid line.

Other modeling (GFS, Euro) also supports the notion of more widely scattered thunderstorms around.  Nothing serious but enough to warrant a heads up from us.

With the front sliding through a warm airmass ahead of the front and some instability, the possibility of a few stronger to severe storms does exist but it appears scattered storms is the key in tomorrow's thunder development.

The good news is that in the wake of the frontal boundary passage on Tuesday night, lower humidity takes over for Wednesday and Thursday as highs barely nudge into the lower 80's around town. The middle of the week definitely looks comfortable from a weather standpoint!