Sunday, June 02, 2013

Thunder Threat This Evening & Overnight

No severe weather watches locally (yet) as of 4:30 PM although we remain under a slight risk of severe weather. You can thank the earlier clouds and brief showers that moved through for providing just enough stability to prevent a more widespread round of thunder from breaking out in the region.  That said, there are showers and storms scattered around -- a few in Ocean County, a few to our north, and more to our west over Central Pennsylvania down into Virginia.

Our atmosphere does have some instability and a few storms could briefly approach severe limits, perhaps exceed them over the next few hours. The Storm Prediction Center has those odds generally across Eastern Pennsylvania and the western half of New Jersey through the evening.

The storms across Virginia are intriguing and could bring us most of our rain and thunder activity later tonight. Modeling from the NAM and other guidance does continue to suggest a threat for steady rains and rumbles of thunder after 9 PM tonight as those storms in Virginia push in.  The disturbance that's responsible for those storms is going to push northeast along the front and lead to a bit move coverage in the shower activity later on.  The threat for severe by this time will be exhausted due to the loss of daytime heating but showers, a few rumbles of thunder, and perhaps a gust of wind are still in the cards for later this evening.

The threat for a big time severe weather outbreak, however, is not likely.

More: Current Weather Page