Friday, June 28, 2013

Weekend, While Chancing Thunder, Will Not Be Total Washout

The conveyor belt of tropical moisture and disturbances around the mid level trough that's to our west will remain a presence in our weather into next week. With a Bermuda High out in the Atlantic and the trough in the Lakes, the region is in a pretty prime spot to get rain and thunder chances just about every afternoon.

As we alluded to yesterday, those chances will vary by day, with some days featuring a less widespread presence of thunderstorms than others.  Regardless of whether it storms or not, the region will deal with a warm, soupy airmass as temperatures nudge the upper 80's with dew points in the 60's to around 70 degrees.

Saturday appears to be one of those days at this point. While there will be a chance for some scattered thunderstorms to fire up in the afternoon, a majority of us may dodge thunderstorms.  A relatively "light" look in moisture pushing through our region, combined with a lack of atmospheric disturbances tracking through, should result in thunderstorm coverage being a bit less widespread tomorrow.

There will be more moisture around on Sunday and modeling is indicating a higher risk of scattered thunderstorms in the region as a result. This, corresponding with a disturbance that's tracking through the Appalachians on Sunday, could trigger more thunderstorm development in the afternoon hours and lead to heavy rains at times in some of the stronger storms.

Keep in mind the weekend will not be a total washout but the thunder threat does exist both days. We will have some sunshine, especially Saturday from mid morning on, and should see some sunshine on Sunday as well. A lower threat for thunder does exists on Saturday than on Sunday.