Thursday, June 27, 2013

Will There Be Dry Days Ahead?

With our forecast showing the potential for several days of scattered thunderstorms around the region, one may be wondering if we need to purchase stock in arks, boats, or canoes...or if there will be at least one or two dry days ahead.

The pattern, on the whole, is conducive for showers and storms being around on most days, especially in the afternoon and evening hours.  Some days, such as Monday and Tuesday, will likely have more thunderstorms around than others.  Saturday (if one believes the European computer model) and Sunday (if you believe the GFS) are examples of days where the potential for widespread thunderstorms is minimal.

The interaction of various disturbances with the Great Lakes trough and blocking Bermuda High will ultimately determine which days will be more thundery than others.  Monday and Tuesday will probably be those days where heavy rain and thunder are more prominent, with Saturday and Sunday days where many may skate through with little or no thunder whatsoever.

Over the next week or so, the potential for three or four inches of rain is possible in parts of the region. Not everyone will pick up that level of rain and, in fact, some may struggle to pick up much more than an inch, with very little falling outside of Monday and Tuesday. The nature of the storms over the next week on the less active days will be generally scattered to perhaps isolated, similar in concept and scope to that of the past four days.  Some get hit, perhaps twice, others don't.

The pattern looks to remain active through the 4th before it shows signs of breaking down at the end of next week.  Keep your fingers crossed.