Monday, July 22, 2013

A Respite From Heat For A While!

The eight day heat wave is likely coming to an end today...and if we avoid 90 in the next couple of days, it looks like we could end up going ten plus days (perhaps two weeks?) without any 90 degree days. It won't be pleasant nor dry all ten plus days but the pattern is in the midst of shifting away from high heat and towards a trough east/ridge southwest setup, as shown below in the GFS model.

Mid level map shows trough setting up shop across Great Lakes later this week, resulting in lower temperatures for us!

While the ridge in the West isn't monstrous nor as robust as what parked itself over the Midwest this week, it will set up in response to a trough digging down into Eastern Canada and the Great Lakes. This trough will bring us a couple of dry days initially -- perhaps as soon as Wednesday and extending into Friday -- before a frontal boundary slides southeast towards the coast and slowly crosses the region this weekend.

Temperatures will still be "typical" for summer over those next ten plus days -- 80's more often than not for highs...perhaps even a few days nudging the upper half of the 80's -- but signs of persistent and consistent heat look few and far between as Lakes trough prevents any heat domes of high pressure from influencing our weather.

It's increasingly likely that Thursday morning offers the city it's first sub 70 degree low in a month.  Modeling suggests 60's into the city, perhaps 50's in the cooler outlying areas on Thursday morning. Whether it's model hype, a case of "too good to be true", or actual reality remains to be seen but as the trough in the Lakes establishes itself later this week we should see less humid air push in as we work through Wednesday, setting the stage for a comfortable morning or two later this week.