Thursday, July 25, 2013

Dorian's Voyage Through The Atlantic

Tropical Storm Dorian is spinning through the Atlantic, working west and west-northwest at a steady clip. It's still a week plus away from being anywhere near this part of the world. Dorian is doing relatively well for a tropical storm in the Central Atlantic, trekking through a relatively favorable environment for slow intensification.  That environment will not remain as favorable over the next couple of days as modeling indicates some dry air in the mid levels of the atmosphere plus some upper level winds from the southwest that appear to move through the system over the coming couple of days.  While Dorian shouldn't meet the fate of Chantal, the system probably won't intensify terribly much over the next few days.

The vast majority of modeling with Dorian takes the storm on a steady west to west-northwest clip through the Atlantic, tracking it to the north of the Caribbean Islands early next week.  The Euro and GFS place the system near the Bahamas in a week's time, with the GFS suggesting a stronger system than the Euro but with both models showing a distinct entity surviving the trek across the Atlantic.

From there, uncertainty exists with the final destination...and that's not a surprise given modeling in the longer ranges is not as accurate as the next several days.  Some models run this towards Florida, others run Dorian along and up the East Coast or just offshore. It would still need to survive the trek through the Atlantic...and the bits of wind shear that lurk in the path ahead of the storm...but it does have a decent chance of being a topic of conversation going into next week as we keep an eye on this system.