Monday, July 15, 2013

Halfway Point Of Meteorological Summer Is Tomorrow

We'll recap where we stand so far this July tomorrow but today marks the midpoint of meteorological summer (46 days in, 46 to go).  I've used July 15th for many years as the midpoint since we do have pre-season and post-season heat...and preseason heat can occur as early as seven to eight weeks prior to the start of June while the latest 90 on record is in early October...mid July is a reasonable halfway point.

Today is day 13 of 90 degree weather this year, the fewest 90 degree days we've had so far in a summer since 2009's whopping total of four.  13 is right around the average of the past 22 years (12.8). Although we've been around two to two and a half degrees above average this summer so far, much of that warmth is coming in the form of warm overnight lows thanks to a humid weather pattern around the western flank of a Bermuda High.

Since 1992, we have averaged 28 90 degree days...15 of which occur after today.  Assuming we hold to "average" here on out, we end up just shy of 30 for the year.  We've had as few as two (three times last 20 years) and as many as 36 (1995).  Two is not going to happen as far as a low water mark this year, unfortunately...the best hope at this point is to hope for a relatively early end to the heat.

The "good" news, if there is much to be had in the midst of summer, is that 55 90 degree days at this point would be pretty much an unrealistic target...42 90 degree days here on out would shatter the '95 standard and given modeling does show a bit of a break next week in the heat, is probably going to be incredibly tough to even come close on.  A realistic number for the summer is close to 30 when all is said and done, which would be fewer than any summer since 2009, with the unfortunate price of humidity looming through the summer ahead.