|Doppler radar estimate of rainfall yesterday evening and last night. Yellow shade yields 2"+. Orange yields 2.5"+.|
The fact some areas got prolific rainfall last night and the prospect for more thunderstorm activity later on today yields a Flash Flood Watch across most of the region -- exceptions being the Shore counties in South Jersey plus the southern two-thirds of Delaware, places where thunderstorms were minimal in impact yesterday and last night compared to the city and points north.
Thunderstorms, as our daycast earlier mentions, will be scattered around from midday into the afternoon hours. Modeling has downplayed some of the risk for thunderstorms in the morning runs compared to runs from yesterday. Downplay does not mean completely removed, however...and the higher resolution models as well as the GFS and Euro both show scattered showers and storms popping in the midday and afternoon hours across the region.
These do not look as widespread, especially north of the city, as what transpired yesterday. However, because the atmosphere is still full of moisture the prospect of heavy rains and localized flooding in any thunderstorm that does pop does exist. Atmospheric PWAT's (index of how much "juice" or moisture is in the atmosphere overall) stay above 1.75" through the course of the day but do trend lower as we work through the afternoon as the disturbance responsible for last night's stuff pushes offshore. To me, it suggests a scattered storm threat this afternoon with the prospect of some additional localized flooding...just not on the order of the heavy rains that a chunk of the region picked up.
More: Current Weather Page