Monday, July 01, 2013

Updating Today's Tropical Torrent

This morning's round of heavy rain did a number on the northern and western burbs -- with doppler radar estimating one to two inches of rain falling during the 7 AM hour in parts of Montgomery and Bucks Counties and leading to a Flash Flood Warning getting issued in the upper halves of the two counties.   These localized torrents of tropical moisture will be around from time to time today, more widespread than yesterday and more likely to impact more geography as well.  A moisture-rich feed from the tropics is pushing northward up the East Coast, with lots of humidity and available moisture along a stalled frontal boundary that separates more tolerable air in the Midwest from the Bermuda High to our east.

Higher resolution modeling shows the potential for rains with us at times through the day, with more rain and thunder trailing all the way down into the Carolinas and the Atlantic.  Rather heavy rain and thunder resides in North Carolina as of 8 AM, pushing north-northeast. If that holds together, that impacts us this afternoon.  There are showers in between that heavier stuff and us, with those likely to push through parts of the region later on this morning.

Any shower or storm that does pop up will carry the risk for heavy rain and more flood warnings and flood watches will be likely in some areas around the region today. Rainfall totals could exceed three inches in some portions of Eastern Pennsylvania today and this evening.  Other areas will pick substantially less -- the Shore looks to fare a bit better today in the rainfall-less department. On the whole in the Flash Flood Watch area (I-95 and points northwest plus Delaware), most spots should see an inch of rain.

The threat for severe weather is relatively low overall but some storms could produced localized gusty winds and downbursts that bring wind gusts above 50 mph. However, heavy rain is a larger threat overall.

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