Saturday, July 20, 2013

Watching The Thunder Threat Into This Evening

The region is back in a slight risk for severe storms this afternoon and evening, with that operative word being slight.  Some storms may reach severe criteria but the majority of the region may avoid getting severe weather before day's end.  Severe storm watches have been issued for parts of New England and down in Maryland, with our immediate region not under anything as of 2:30 PM.

There are some storms firing up -- mostly to the northwest of the city along I-80, moving east.  Other storms will probably pop in the next few hours in Central PA and also move east towards the Philly metro.

The main threat from any storm that fires, should they fire, is gusty winds...hail is possible but it isn't as primary a threat with these storms at this point.

We're still looking at a timing/impact after 7 PM in the city, a bit earlier west, and towards 8 or later at the Shore.  At this point, thinking that any line of storms that develops is probably going to be scattered to broken, meaning some (perhaps most?) spots may miss out on much storminess while others get hit pretty hard.

Modeling may very well end up overplaying the extent of thunderstorms around the region later today -- given pockets of cloudiness around, it's possible things are more scattered and less widespread as we progress through the afternoon.  The NAM, up above, shares the more widespread thinking that other higher resolution modeling is playing up for today's storm chances. Not sure it verifies but the timing is generally parked between 6 to 9 PM for an impact in the city between the high resolution guidance.

It does look like a better shot of severe weather lines up for New England as a broken line of severe storms pushes east through Southern New England this afternoon and early this evening.

We'll keep an eye on things and update as needed.

More: Current Weather Page