Thursday, August 08, 2013

An Update On The Cape Verde Part Of Tropics

Last Thursday, we mentioned that the tropics are taking a break for the time being thanks to the presence of dry air in the eastern portions of the Atlantic and a rather huge plume of dry air that pushed off into the Atlantic from the Sahara.  The tropics are still quiet and look to be for at least a few more days thanks to that dry plume -- you can see the relative lack of activity across the tropical Atlantic and that, outside of one wave exiting off of Africa yesterday, there's not a whole lot going on down there.

Even into the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, it's quiet as well.  A tropical wave is working towards Florida and towards the Gulf of Mexico for later this week, with the slight possibility that the wave may try to spin into something this weekend. If it does, it will likely be more rain-maker than anything else down there. Outside of this possibility of "home brew", the tropics do look to remain quiet for the next several days.

You do notice a bit more activity working through Africa, with two waves on the continent (one on the edge of the map, the other in the middle of West Africa) moving west. These waves will work westward into the Atlantic and may provide a shot at some tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic after August 15th.  The GFS hints at this possibility below.

Any tropical development does not immediately mean East Coast threat or that the system will even survive the trek through the Atlantic -- it does indicate that our lull of activity will eventually come to an end, which is not surprising given that we're about to enter prime time for the tropics.