Saturday, August 03, 2013

How Are We Doing On 2013's Overall Temperature?

We just finished a tie for tenth in warmest July in Philadelphia -- well, eleventh if one does not round.  It was also the least warm July since 2009 and part of a trend where we've been running cooler than last year in nearly every month (May was an exception to that).

We're running over three degrees cooler than last year to this point as well. 

2012 was the warmest year on record and its pace through July, shown on left, was clearly in a world of its own. Temperatures in 2012 averaged 58.59 degrees through July, with July 2013's temperature year-to-date only coming in at 55.36 degrees.

Average for year-to-date is we're running nine tenths of a degree above average for the year so far.  A chilled March has helped keep us in line.

In fact, our current pace puts us in the running for the third coolest year in the last eight years, behind only 2007 and 2009, and would be the coolest year since 2009.  All-time, it ranks 21st we're still running above the historical mean and the recent average, but it's better than lapping the field like last year did.

Definitely a more "normal" regime on temperatures, if one can put up with excessive rain and humidity as the return trade in the deal.

Another stat of sorts that I look at is running twelve month temperature -- how have temperatures averaged over a rolling twelve month basis.  Our August-July average of  56.93 degrees is the lowest rolling average since December 2010-November 2011 averaged out to 56.79 degrees (remember we had a very cold December/January in that stretch). 

At this point, we can safely assume it won't be the hottest summer on record, hottest year on record (we'd have to run quite a bit above average from here on out), and it will likely be the coolest year in a few years around here before all is said and done.