Thunderstorms are moving southeast through Upstate New York this afternoon, powered by a MCV (mesoconvective vort) that will generate into low pressure once it gets into the Atlantic. This complex of storms, shown on radar as of 4 PM, is moving at a decent clip to the southeast. The part over Lake Erie and near Buffalo is the part of the line that may move towards us late this evening.
None of the storms in this line, at this point, are severe, but there's a round of rain and thunder that's moving on southeast. I don't foresee any of this becoming severe as it moves southeast either -- the atmosphere is a bit more stable over us compared to upstream to the northwest and as a result I could see the line of storms weakening a bit. The strongest part of the line -- near the MCV center itself -- should hold its own as it works southeast towards New York City and Connecticut later tonight. The part of the line that's near Buffalo...if it holds, works towards us and becomes our shower and storm threat later this evening.
Like we alluded to yesterday, the best odds of thunder reside the farther north and northeast one is -- that part still holds true as it looks like showers and rumbles of thunder should work through the Poconos, Allentown, Central and North Jersey. However, if this line does hold together, it will work through our region in the 10-11 PM or later timeframe. Modeling varies on whether this line survives to Philly or not -- the most recent NAM and HRRR say yes, other models are less confident. I think a few rumbles of thunder shouldn't be ruled out but I don't foresee the line staying as strong as it is now.
We'll see if it holds together. This first round of the ring of fire isn't the only one this week -- Wednesday's round of thunder still looms as more widespread for the region and as such the odds of storms will increase as another disturbance passes overhead.
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