Sunday, August 25, 2013

More On The Ringing Of Fire This Week

Continuing our discussion of the ring of fire that we've been hinting at for a couple of days now, there's a bit more consistency in modeling regarding specifics for the coming week's "fun" as we straddle the ring of fire.

The two waves we'll have to watch are Monday night followed by Wednesday. Both waves will bring moisture, energy, and the potential for heavy thunderstorms as they swing around this upper level high over the Midwest that will generate plenty of heat and humidity across the center of the nation.

The Monday night and Tuesday wave is currently modeled to track towards New England, probably bringing a greater thunder threat over Southeast New England and Upstate New York than locally. However, we will be close enough to the first wave to have to keep a chance of thunder in the forecast...especially in the pre-dawn hours on Tuesday. It wouldn't shock me if a line of storms zipped southeast through North and Central Jersey, the Poconos, and offshore early on Tuesday morning. Whether they get into Philly or across the south and west burbs is still to be determined...just be aware that you might be awaken overnight Monday into Tuesday with a loud rumbling.

Tuesday offers a respite once these storms move out -- might be damp in the morning hours but sunshine should take over. There's a shot at 90 on Tuesday if we clear out fast enough (the NAM and Euro hint at it).  Even if we don't hit 90, there's enough of a break that we will get a decent afternoon in between disturbances...the Wednesday disturbance being a bit nastier, more robust, and more likely to impact our region (at least from this far out).  The Wednesday disturbance is in association with the dying remnants of Tropical Storm Ivo in the Pacific and will have traveled around the periphery of the heat ridge between today and Wednesday.  Impressive movement, impressive energy, and lots of moisture.

As you can see below, by late Monday afternoon there's over two inches of PWAT available in Minnesota and North Dakota (where Ivo's remnants will be located)...all of which will track towards us for Wednesday.

Wednesday could produce more widespread thunderstorms around the region, any of which could be rather heavy as they move through. As of now, no risk of severe weather out there but it's three days out. We could see the potential for strong or severe thunderstorms (or minimum of heavy rainfall with thunderstorms) with the Wednesday event.