Saturday, August 24, 2013

Ringing Fire Next Week

This weekend's weather will be pretty awesome overall -- lower humidity, temperatures about where they should be for late August, and generally nice weather for all. Heat and humidity will build in the Midwest -- and will stay in the Midwest for the next week as a strong ridge of high pressure builds aloft across Missouri and Kansas, pushing north into Minnesota with 90's for the early part of next week.

GFS modeling for late Monday. Disturbances around high pressure ridge are arrowed or circled. Map source:

While that heat stays out to our west, thankfully (if you loathe heat), we will be on the northeast edges of that ridge but not under its influence. Typically in such a scenario in August, one can find disturbances in the atmosphere tracking around the periphery of the high ridge. This will result in thunderstorm chances next week on at least two occasions -- Tuesday, associated with the circled disturbance that's modeled to dive southeast from Canada, and again on Wednesday or Thursday with the disturbances that are pointed to by arrows. These vortexes of energy will travel around the high and are likely associated with Tropical Storm Ivo in the Pacific. These will bring additional thunderstorm chances to the region as well.

There is still some uncertainty to the specific track and impact of those thunder chances -- disturbance-based thunderstorms are tougher to pin down...and how the midweek thunder with the remnant moisture moves across the region will likely be based on how Tuesday's thunder threat materializes plus the strength of the ridge in the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Those factors will drive the bus on how active thunderstorms will ultimately be around here.

Just know that we have at least two cracks at active weather next week.