Sunday, August 11, 2013

Tuesday Thunder Threat Might Push Severe Limits In Spots

With another cool front and reinforcing shot of dry weather coming at us for the middle of the week, its passage on Tuesday brings us a threat for thunderstorms in most of the region. That threat actually will be with us to a smaller degree tomorrow as scattered storms will be around in a few spots with a weak disturbance pushing on through.

Tuesday's front has enough oomph to it that a few storms could briefly threaten severe limits or become severe. The Storm Prediction Center has the Delmarva under a slight risk for severe storms at this point for Tuesday, with us in a five percent category for severe storms, meaning while severe weather can't be totally ruled out, the odds of it happening around us are pretty low.

The biggest issue with Tuesday appears to be timing for us -- modeling shows rain and thunder approaching the region during the early morning hours, with the NAM showing the front moving towards Philadelphia from the west and scattered areas of rain and storms out in advance of it.  Some of that rain could be locally soaking in spots -- potentially dropping over an inch of rain depending on track and intensity of the storm.  Other models are a bit slower on the storm development, suggesting a midday or early afternoon development of storms. If the latter scenario verifies, we could see some stronger storms around our area.

This front will settle down across the Outer Banks of the Carolinas later this week and a wave or two of low pressure will develop along the front. High pressure builds in over us, bringing at least a few days of dry weather. The question turns to whether that front stays stalled or tries to wiggle back north this weekend towards us. There isn't much consistency in what pans out but at minimum, Wednesday through Friday look dry and comfortable...and if that high pressure ridge that builds in over us is strong enough, that dry trend may hold into the weekend.