Thursday, August 29, 2013

Unsettled But Not A Complete Washout Weekend

The weekend theme is one that we're used to around here -- at times stormy, some parts sunny, with typical humidity and summertime warmth dominating the scene all weekend long.  A cool front and trough will advance towards the East Coast over the course of the weekend, slowly, with warmth southwesterly winds out in advance of the front helping to pump moisture northeast through our region.

Of the three days, Saturday appears as of now to be the one with the best chance of being dry for most of the region. There could be a shower or storm around but the best odds -- and those appear to be scattered in nature -- appear to be across Central PA, with an increasing chance to the west.

Those chances increase for most of the region into Sunday as low pressure moves into Michigan, with a broad southwest flow of moisture pushing northeast. Most of the thunderstorm development each day occurs in the midday into afternoon hours with daytime heating but storms will linger through each evening, especially on Sunday night into Monday as a weak disturbance nudges along ahead of the front.  Sunday's chances look higher for most locations than on Saturday.  Sunday night into Monday looks to be stormy or rainy in a number of locations, at least as of now.

The disturbance passes through early Monday, working into New England, but the threat for shower and storm activity remains as the front lingers back. The front pushes through Monday night and early Tuesday morning, bringing an end to the morass of moisture.

So what to expect this weekend?  Scattered shower and storm threats, increasing each day from Saturday through Monday. The "bulk" of storm chances reside on Sunday PM and Monday in our area to the Shore. Saturday looks like the best overall day around here from a "get out and enjoy" standpoint.

Humidity will be relatively high through the weekend, with temperatures generally a few degrees above average (80's) each afternoon. It will definitely feel like late summer out there.

With the amount of moisture available -- PWAT's over 1.75" on Sunday and Monday -- rainfall will be locally heavy in spots over the coming weekend, especially in the Sunday night and Monday timeframe.