Friday, September 06, 2013

Gabrielle, For Now, Fizzles

If you were to look at a weather satellite this morning in search of Tropical Storm Gabrielle, you'd probably focus on the blob of storms east of Puerto Rico as the system in question.  If you did so, you'd be mistaken.

Gabrielle's remnants (yep, another fizzler) are located within the black circle between the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico.

Gabrielle was struggling to maintain a surface circulation yesterday -- despite a well-defined mid level center on radar and on satellite, the surface low pressure center was struggling to maintain itself. This became an issue as the storm encountered the terrain of both Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, which lead to the thunderstorms around the storm weakening and the system falling apart.

Between the remnant moisture of Gabrielle and the disorganized complex of thunderstorms to its east, computer modeling still suggests that something tracks north through the Atlantic, far to our east, bringing squally weather to Bermuda early next week.  Whether it's tied directly to Gabrielle, indirectly, or not at all, is to be determined but something between Gabrielle's remnant moisture and the thunderstorms east of Puerto Rico may develop in the coming days.

Whatever does develop will NOT be a threat to the East Coast as a trough in the mid atmosphere blocks the East Coast from tropical impact.