Tuesday, September 10, 2013

Gabrielle Reorganizes, Plus Potential For Tropical System In Deep South Texas

After a couple of days of meandering northward, the remnants of Gabrielle have organized sufficiently enough to warrant reclassification as a tropical storm to the east of Florida. Gabrielle is a threat to Bermuda over the coming days as it generally nudges northward before turning northeast ahead of the cold front that pushes our incoming heat and humidity out of the picture.

Depending on how strong Gabrielle gets, there could be some slightly higher swells at the Atlantic coastline later this week from the storm as it passes far to our east.  In terms of intensity, it looks like the storm should maintain tropical storm intensity although it could be a relatively large tropical storm in terms of size, which could help generate some increase in the swells or surf at the Shore. Nothing major league in height though.

Farther out in the Atlantic, Humberto is nearing hurricane intensity and should earn hurricane status later today, avoiding the record for latest first hurricane in the recon era. It is poised to remain far, far, away from the East Coast as it turns to the north in response to a trough in the Central Atlantic. Humberto could become a rather strong hurricane for a time since it will track in a favorable environment for the next couple of days.  It then will encounter cooler ocean water, some increasing upper level shear, and drier air aloft -- and may weaken as steadily as it has strengthened in recent days.

Closer to home, an area of disturbed weather in the northwest Caribbean is poised to track over the Yucatan in the coming days, emerging in the Gulf of Mexico. Some modeling suggests that it may make a run at South Texas or Northeast Mexico this weekend, perhaps as a strengthening tropical system (see the GFS depiction below, which shows the system coming ashore in Northeast Mexico about 100 miles south of Brownsville).

This possible system will not be a threat to the East Coast as high pressure will block us but it could sneak up into Southern Texas. Future modeling will refine where exactly this one goes.