Saturday, September 14, 2013

Ingrid & Manuel Tag Team To Soak Mexico

A monsoon weakness in the atmosphere has spawned the formation of two tropical cyclones -- one in the Gulf of Mexico (Ingrid) and one in the Eastern Pacific (Manuel). These two systems will combine to produce prolific rainfall to Mexico over the coming days, with Ingrid likely to become the stronger of the two systems in time.

Both storms are slow-moving at this point and both, gradually, are expected to move northwest and west over the coming days, with Manuel likely to work its way inland over Southwest Mexico while Ingrid makes landfall over Eastern Mexico a safe distance south of the United States border.

While Ingrid has a rather solid potential of intensifying to hurricane strength as wind shear will subside and it spins in the bath waters of the Bay of Campeche, the rains that it produces due to its slow movement could be the bigger story that plays out in the next few days as the storm gradually moves inland. National Hurricane Center forecasters allude to the possibility of 25 inches of rain across parts of Mexico, with the potential that these rains produce mudslides in hillier terrain.

Manuel, the Pacific "twin" of this monsoon weakness-induced system is the weaker of the two systems...struggling to intensify due in some part to its closeness to Ingrid taking on additional strength and intensity, also due to the presence of additional clusters of thunderstorms that are not coalescing around the center. Manuel, however, will add additional moisture and rainfall to Mexico as it gradually moves towards the coast in the next day or so on the Pacific side.