Friday, September 27, 2013

Perhaps Back To 80 Next Week?

Not only is the weather pattern boring in the sense that there's nothing to talk about...well, unless posts about winter storms in the mountains, ocean storms spinning around out in the Atlantic, and cooler than average temperatures are not considered "boring".

The ocean storm continues to look like it will stay far enough offshore to not directly impact us. There have been some hints from the GFS that it could get close enough to throw clouds back inland late Sunday into Monday. Most modeling even keeps the deck of clouds away from us -- and the ensemble variants of the GFS disagree with the primary model regarding closeness to the coast, with the ensembles generally farther east with the low pressure center. We'll keep a smidge of an eye on it but the odds of impact from the ocean storm remain low.

Until then, enjoy the nice weather...which will stay in place through much of next week.  High pressure dominates the East, even with a weak front shooting through on Monday, yielding days of pleasant temperatures as a surface high settles over Virginia and the Carolinas. This alone will produce a light westerly and southwesterly flow, which is a perfect setup for a warmup around here.  As the pattern aloft becomes a bit more amplified later next week, we should see temperatures warm a bit more as a storm system develops in the Midwest late in the week and we get a bit more "ridging" in the atmosphere to help enhance temperatures further.

Thursday or Friday's high temperatures should yield a realistic run at 80 degrees around the region. Certainly not record breaking warmth but it is pushing ten degrees above average (average highs the first few days of October are in the 71, 72 degree range). Arguably, next week may be the last chances for 80 degrees before we step further into the cool entrenches of autumn, but regardless of whether we hit 80 or not we should get several days of nice weather coming at us.