Sunday, September 29, 2013

Potential Tropical Activity This Week...Could This System Enhance Weekend Rain?

A complex of thunderstorms has persisted across the Caribbean for a couple of days and modeling is starting to sniff out the possibility of tropical development out of the complex of storms over the course of this week. While there's little there at this point but the GFS and Euro hint at *something* developing and eventually tracking north and northwest towards the Gulf of Mexico.

At this point, any tropical development may be slow to occur -- the models aren't really aggressive in blowing this complex of storms up into something as there is some wind shear in the Caribbean. This should slacken off in the coming days, yielding a more favorable environment for development. The GFS hints that whatever develops (assuming it does) would work towards Florida late this week and then, perhaps, into the Carolinas late next weekend.

This would be in concert with an approaching cold front that is poised to move through the East Coast next weekend. Modeling varies on timing with the front within each run and between the models.  Yesterday afternoon, the Euro was faster (Saturday PM) than the GFS (Sunday into Monday) with this entity. Last night, those roles flipped completely (GFS much faster than the Euro).  This tropical entity would likely weaken in intensity due to land interaction over Florida and then wind shear out ahead of the front, so the result could be enhanced rainfall, perhaps some heavy rain for the weekend with this front.  Timing and interaction with the front will be critical -- but there are signs that some heavy rain could occur around the region next weekend.

This is still several days out so the details will likely fine tune and change a fair amount between now and the weekend but it is a feature to keep an eye on.