Sunday, September 08, 2013

Summer Is Not Through With You Yet

Usually, we're not ones to post NAM model graphics for the very, very end of their run but it, along with the GFS and Euro, hint rather strongly that 90 is not out of the question by the middle or end of this week.


Yep, a shot of summer is pushing back northeast for Wednesday and Thursday ahead of a cool front that will bring you relief next weekend.  Wednesday probably is our best shot of the two days to hit 90 around here as we will be funny entrenched in the warm sector and we should a decent amount of sunshine to help us get to that warm level.  Temperatures aloft will also be warm...and with a west-southwest wind, we have enough ingredients in place to take a serious, solid, hardcore run at 90.

For now, I won't throw it in the forecast that comes out later on but we'll get darn close...it wouldn't surprise me if we end up "going there" with 90 degrees in subsequent forecasts.

The one fly in the ointment that may prevent 90 is the possibility for a few pop up thunderstorms around Wednesday afternoon. While the front itself will still reside out to our northwest, there will be enough instability and lift to trigger a few pop up storms across the region. There will a better chance of these on Thursday as the front slides through the area, which may result in us having a lesser chance of making a run at 90 then compared to Wednesday.

There's a chance that this is NOT our last shot at 90 for the year. Some modeling suggests that we could have another crack at it in the middle or latter stages of next week as a ridge of high pressure builds across the Southeast (the GFS in particular has been pretty consistent on this feature).  Even if we don't make a run at 90 next week, the odds of warmth are pretty high at this point.  We'll keep an eye on that in the coming days.

Until then, enjoy the yo-yo of September as we begin the slow, gradual descent into cooler temperatures.