Wednesday, September 25, 2013

What's Up With Possible Sunday System?

Some in the meteorological community were frothing with excitement over the prospect of watching a potential coastal storm that the Euro computer model had been hyping for an East Coast hit for three consecutive runs between Monday morning and Tuesday morning. It was one model in the spread -- the GFS hadn't shown this of late -- and the Euro had promised you rain yesterday based on model runs a week ago.

Obviously that didn't happen.

Where do we stand at this point? The Euro has nudged the track of the coastal storm away from us as high pressure holds in control over our region at the surface and the ridge of high pressure in the Atlantic is not as strong as earlier runs had suggested. The GFS continues to maintain a weaker surface feature that stays far to the east of us, with the Canadian showing a similar track to the GFS but with a stronger system.

It does appear some sort of system will fire up off of the Southeast coast late this week or into the weekend but with the presence of high pressure at the surface nearby, the odds of this system backing in and impacting us appear to be pretty low. For the storm to back in and hit us, we would need the ridge of high pressure in the Atlantic to be a bit stronger to the storm's east and in a strengthening or moving west, which would then push the storm on a more westward track. Having a stronger high pressure ridge to its northwest will not allow for the coastal to track back towards us.

As for some of the "Sandy-like" comparisons that a few hypemongers have thrown out there, the only comparison that would apply to is the storm backing in off of the coast in a fashion similar to Sandy. Intensity, wind, waves, coastal flooding wouldn't come close to what we saw last year. It's not as if a coastal storm has never fired up and backed in off the Atlantic before in our lives. Would it be breezy if we got the storm here? Yes...not on the order of what happened last October though.

That said, the scenario is an outlier to what most of the guidance is showing as of this morning...and even the one model that showed that scenario has nudged away from bringing this storm towards us.  We'll keep an eye on it in case any changes do develop in the coming days.