Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Chilled, Damp In Spots

Temperatures this morning are in the 30's (northwest) and 40's (elsewhere) as clouds have moved back in overnight through much of the region. It's a chilled start to our coldest day since April as we likely only get into the mid 50's by day's end in much of the region.

Skies will generally remain cloudy today as a disturbance pushes northeast along the frontal boundary that slipped through yesterday afternoon. That disturbance will organize into low pressure as it moves into the Atlantic but will push areas of showers northeast along with it.  Those showers are falling in spots south and east of the city already this morning -- radar picked up showers near Dover and Millville just before 5 AM.

The best chances of showers today will loom east of the city, as modeled above by the NAM and other guidance...which all of generally shifted the best chances and higher precip totals into South Jersey and Delaware.  Some of those showers will be steadier to perhaps heavier as they push through -- wouldn't shock me to see some totals exceed a third of an inch.  Little, if any, shower activity may fall north and west of Route 202 in Pennsylvania.  The farther north and west one resides, the lower the shower threat today.

The city could get clipped by a band of showers later on this morning into the midday hours -- high res, short-term modeling remains on the fence on this and looking at radar trends, it's a close call for Philly itself.