Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Friday Morning's Commute Looks Wet, Windy

There's a mixture of good news and not-so-good news for you this morning in the weather department.

First, Halloween looks dry and mild for those who are looking to get out and get candy, or accompany the young ghost, goblin, or assorted costume character (please for the love of humanity, avoid going as Miley Cyrus). There could be a shower or two out towards Harrisburg or up towards Scranton but for those of us here, should be dry and mild.  Temperatures will likely be in the 60's tomorrow night for a good chunk of the evening with a mild southwesterly breeze. Not quite "shorts and t-shirt" weather but pretty nice for the end of October.

That's all brought to you by an approaching cold front that's going to move through on Friday with a pre-frontal band of rain and perhaps thunder. That mass of rain and isolated thunder moves in after Midnight tomorrow night, pushing through for the morning commute before departing. In addition to the rain will be an increasing breeze on Thursday night as winds at 5000 feet up will push above 70 miles per hour, higher north and west of the city, towards daybreak Friday. Those winds don't all transpose to the surface but in heavier showers we could see some 40-50 mile per hour gusts, perhaps a bit higher on ridge tops in the Poconos. It would not shock us to see a severe "thunderstorm" warning or two fire up tomorrow night and early Friday because of those winds.  Thunderstorm is in quotes because the line of rain and wind may not contain much, if any, thunder at all.

This frontal boundary and storm system will produce a higher risk of severe weather back across the Ohio Valley and Western Pennsylvania than locally as instability parameters will be a bit better to our west than locally, thanks in large part to timing. That said, there's enough wind energy with this storm system despite the timing to probably get some 40+ mile per hour wind gusts with the frontal squall as it moves through.

Rainfall should average out to about a half an inch regionwide, a bit more north than south.

Temperatures on Friday morning could be in the mid, perhaps upper, 60's across a large chunk of the region. This may help us pull off a second 70 degree day in a row to start November as tomorrow looks like we should get to 70 in the city.