Friday, October 25, 2013

Pattern Goes Roller Coaster Next Week

The pattern we're in now is pretty robust for late October -- a cold trough in the East, warm ridge out West, but it is not a "locked in" look long term for us as we will see a relaxation in the pattern in the coming days. A ripple in the atmosphere will roll down the jet stream from Canada into the West early next week, digging a deep trough across the Rockies and Plains as it intensifies.

This will create a bit of a ridge across the Mid Atlantic, perhaps the Northeast, in response to the digging trough helping "pump" up some warmer air across the East and South.  We will see temperatures climb back into the 60's next week -- some "Indian Summer" for the end of October as the moderating pattern comes in the wake of our current chilly run.  While we moderate, the west briefly chills as this storm deepens and then rolls east for the balance of the week.

As of last night, modeling was suggesting we see impacts for it on Thursday into Friday, with another deepening trough reinforcing itself across the Great Lakes and eastern North America. This storm system will push into the Lakes, if the GFS and Euro are right, and spread a round of rain and thunder to the East Coast for Thursday or Friday, depending on the model of your choosing.

Granted, it's still a week out, but both models have been hinting at this possibility, the European model more consistently. We could see some thunderstorms or a Fall squall out of this depending on the strength, the position of winds aloft, but at least there will be some warmth and some rain around to close out October and enter November. The details will be flushed out in coming days.

In the wake of whatever moves through the region late next week, another cool shot works through for the proceeding weekend, one that lasts for a few days before relaxing again around or just after Election Day.