Sunday, October 06, 2013

Possible Fall Squall In Northeast With Tomorrow's Front

We're still on track for a decent shot of rain in parts of the region tomorrow and tomorrow night with the advancing cold front. The slug of mugginess that's been part of our weather the past few days remains in place and provides enough moisture to feed into a dynamic storm system that  pushes northeast through the Great Lakes and into Canada over the course of Monday, with the dragging cold front firing a line of heavy rain and potential gusty winds as it pushes east Monday afternoon and evening into our region.

The brunt of any potential "Fall Squall" sets up for Upstate New York and Central Pennsylvania, where winds aloft at 5000' in the atmosphere could reach over 60 mph north of I-80. The strongest those winds at 5000' get in our region is in the 40-50 mph range as the front crosses the region Monday evening. At minimum, Monday will be breezy through the region with the potential for a shot of gusty winds with the front.  Those winds probably won't get as strong here as they do to the west but there will be some wind-enhanced squalls going thanks to this storm system.

Besides the wind, which has been trending a bit gustier overall in guidance, rain still remains on tap for the region. Guidance suggests a general 3/4" to 2" event, with the heaviest rains west of the city.  Much of this falls with the heavy rain shield that accompanies the front as it moves through the region. Monday and Monday night's rains could mainly fall in a three to six hour window preceding frontal boundary passage.

At this point, timing remains in the Monday afternoon and evening hours, centering on the 4-8 PM timeframe for frontal passage.  The front should clear through in time for Tuesday morning's rush, leaving you a pretty nice day on the whole...albeit a bit breezy at times.