Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Sandy's Well Forecast & Documented Journey

Tropical Storm Sandy formed a year ago yesterday in the Caribbean, a week away from its ultimate impact and destination along the Jersey coastline. It's amazing that it's been a year already -- and while much has been done to clean up New York and New Jersey and to put in preventive measures going forward, there's still a lot of work ahead for many.

The storm was still a week away from impacting us last week at this point but was in the process of organizing across the Caribbean but modeling was sniffing out what ultimately was a monster storm.


This was the model setup between the GFS (left, below) and Euro (right, below) from October 22nd's midday run for Halloween (which was a Wednesday last year).  The stunning amount of accuracy in detail with the Euro model, while not entirely accurate in timing this far out, was one of the biggest things that came out of Sandy from a forecasting perspective. The Euro essentially did a great job of forecasting an extreme scenario to verify...and verify it certainly did.


Heck, the discussion that came out of those early Euro forecasts was interesting to say the least...



...and...



A year ago at this time, it was a strengthening tropical storm that had hurricane warnings out for Cuba but was not projected to get terribly strong from a wind perspective before it struck the Caribbean islands. Sandy would intensify to hurricane status before landfall in Jamaica, then intensify further as it approached Cuba. Six days from October 23rd, 2012, Sandy ultimately would have wreaked tremendous havoc on not just the Caribbean but also the East Coast as it blasted ashore along the Jersey coastline.