Monday, October 28, 2013

Storm System For Thursday Night Into Friday

A tranquil and relatively mild week is ahead of us for the Delaware Valley but a stronger storm system lurks in the forecast for Thursday Night into Friday. The GFS has maintained strong consistency so far in suggesting a frontal passage in the overnight Thursday into Friday timeframe, with the Euro a bit delayed in timing (Friday evening). Given the track, it will be a warm, breezy setup for us as temperatures likely push 70 on Thursday.

The specific details of what accompanies the front will still be ironed out but at minimum we will have a breezy Thursday night into Friday, with the prospect of a gusty squall line of wind and rain pushing through with the front itself.  Modeling shows some pretty strong winds (see below) at 5000 feet up. The GFS model suggests that winds could reach 60 or 70 miles per hour aloft, with some of that possibly translating to the surface as the front pushes through.  With an evening or overnight timeframe, we may have a bit more of a struggle in getting a portion of high winds down to the surface as the atmosphere's lowest levels may be a bit more stable.  That said, gusty winds of some sort probably accompany this front, along with a band or two of rain.

Post-front, a cooler weekend is in store on a gusty west-northwest flow. Temperatures probably end up dropping back into the 50's for highs.