Thursday, October 03, 2013

Storm That Pulls Karen North Going To Bring Wintry Fun With It

Over the next 48 hours, winter will make its voice heard across the Black Hills and part of the Plains of South Dakota, Nebraska, and Colorado as a storm system fires up and pushes northeast. Significant levels of moisture will pull into a dynamically deepening storm system, resulting in heavy snowfall in an early season winter storm across these areas.

The NAM is suggesting parts of South Dakota could see 30" of snow.

Computer modeling is suggesting the potential for significant snowfall across the Black Hills and also the High Plains of South Dakota to the east. The NAM, above, suggests a bit more snowfall overall than the GFS, but both suggest heavy snowfall for Rapid City...perhaps on the level of two feet or more!  Rapid City reached 65 degrees yesterday for a high -- and by this time tomorrow, it could be snowing pretty prolifically.

The GFS suggests significant snow as well, mostly in higher elevations.

The yin to the wintry yang is the potential for several weather across the Midwest tomorrow -- a moderate risk of severe weather exists across Iowa and Southern Minnesota, with a rather pronounced warm sector ahead of the storm system pushing humidity, moisture, and warmth north. Temperatures in the 70's and 80's ahead of the storm, with snow behind it...sounds like the classic dynamic early Fall storm that will produce a wide array of ingredients!

This storm will help pull Karen north towards the US, which will then pull the storm along its trailing cold front towards us for Monday into Tuesday. While there are still questions of track and rainfall for us, this Plains and Midwest storm is the bus that will eventually drive Karen here.