Sunday, November 10, 2013

After A Warm Start, November Has Trended Colder

The first two days of November featured high temperatures near 70 and average temperature departures that were approaching ten degrees above average. Even with the chill that was coming in, it looked like November had a shot of being much like the warm October we just exited.

Through yesterday, November is actually below average in Philadelphia by three tenths of a degree. You can thank the four cold days that we had last Sunday, Monday, Friday, and yesterday for overpowering the warmth from the 1st and 2nd. The result is a a month that has averaged out to slightly colder than average so far.

Pink and dark blue lines are actual highs. Orange and lighter blue are the averages.
Adding the chill from the incoming cold shot later this week to the mix, we will probably see the "to average" part of the equation trend lower for a few days.  Is November going to shape up as a "lock and load" type of cold month?

Likely not. The general trend of things over the next week to two weeks is variable, at times meteorologically volatile with regards to temperatures. The incoming cold shot will not be a long duration one as temperatures warm back to near average by the time we hit Friday.  We may even see temperatures warm a bit further into next weekend in advance of a potential storm system that tracks through the Great Lakes...with a cold front that moves through either Sunday or next Monday.

We'll yo-yo thereafter but the general pattern is not for a "lock and load" of chill in November. We may end up with more cooler days than warmer over the course of the month -- modeling is uncertain about the long range prospects of how cool or how warm we end up being. That said, it doesn't look like we see a long period of warmth or chill in the coming days or weeks...just a continued yo-yo of the weather.