Monday, November 18, 2013

Chilled Advance Of Turkey Day

The yo-yo of November continues this week as we cool down over the next few days before moderating later this week in temperature realm. While temperatures later this week will not approach the levels that we saw yesterday and this morning, we will generally edge back towards average or slightly above later this week.

Another cold front, or pair of fronts, slide on through on Saturday into Sunday. There's been waffling with the specifics of what accompanies the front -- whether it is a low pressure center with a steadier rain or just a round of showers followed by chill.  Regardless, modeling has been suggesting for a few days that we will get a pretty decent cold shot after the front (or low) into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic, with the prospect of colder weather than what we got earlier last week when Philly dropped to below freezing for the first time this autumn.

While the Euro from Saturday night was a lot more aggressive with the level of chill coming down the pike compared to yesterday's GFS model, the details aren't as important as the general concept that a cold shot is coming next week to our realm. Some of the modeling is sniffing the possibility of highs in the 30's as early as Sunday in Philadelphia.  So, yeah, it's going to get colder.

It's also late November and this type of weather is not unusual.

There have been occasional hypemongerings of a winter storm for Thanksgiving. While modeling from the GFS and Euro both show the possibility of a storm tracking across the South in the run-up to Turkey Day, the general worrying about details is still quite silly given general inconsistency in track and what ultimately happens as the cold shot relaxes a bit.

That said, the yo-yo and yin and yang of November will swing the pendulum of temperatures in a colder direction than this week's chill in the not-too-distant future.