Saturday, November 16, 2013

Forecast For Sunday, November 17, 2013

Overcast skies with a spotty shower can be expected as a warm front lifts through the region late tonight into Sunday Morning. With winds becoming calm and increasing moisture at lower levels, some patchy fog should develop and the fog could stick around through about 9 A.M. on Sunday.  Some filtered sunshine is possible on Sunday. High temperatures will likely occur late in the day with temperatures reaching into the mid and upper 60s. 

A powerful low pressure system will drive a strong cold front through our region late Sunday Night into Monday. Showers will accompany the frontal passage. These showers could be in the form of one or two narrow squall lines. If these squall lines form, they may race eastward. Winds aloft will be increasing as a strong low-level jet sets up. The strongest winds within the low-level jet should be in Ohio and Western Pennsylvania. In addition, instability will be limited. However, winds aloft will still be plenty strong in our area. Therefore, some scattered damaging wind gusts (58 MPH or greater) are possible, probably most likely in the heavier showers as the rain helps mix the wind to the surface. Widespread 30 to 45 MPH wind gusts are anticipated as the front pushes through the region. There could be a few rumbles of thunder as this line comes through, but again instability will be limited.

Showers will wrap up on Monday Morning. Sunshine should follow. Colder air will funnel into the region as gusty west-northwest winds develop behind the front. High temperatures will occur in the early morning hours. Temperatures should fall throughout the day. Breezy conditions should linger into Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday should be in the 40s. High pressure will build in from the north late Monday and hold firm for the rest of the week.

Another storm system is expected to approach sometime next weekend and this could produce a few rounds of showers or even a period of heavier rain. Modeling has been inconsistent thus far on the specifics.