Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Got A Few Dollars? Give Dr. Gray A Hollar...

A surprising bit of news came out yesterday's postmortem of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season (or lack thereof) by Dr. Gray and Philip Klotzbach...

Yep, they need some money to keep their forecasts flowing. Such is life in the research (and nonprofit) industry -- no money, no work can really be accomplished. If you like their work and have a dime or two to spare, feel free to connect and see what can be done.

Gray was among the pioneers in public seasonal forecasting, issuing hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic basin on an annual basis since 1984. In many respects, Gray is a pioneer of sorts in the long range forecasting business...and his research and insight into factors that drove active and inactive hurricane seasons went a long way to helping improve the science of forecasting out several months.

While Gray had passed on most of the official forecasting duties to Phil Klotzbach in 2005, the forecast project still had a lot of Gray's fingerprints over it despite not having primary authorship.

If Gray and Klotzbach are unable to continue their work in 2014, it is a signal to an end of an era of sorts in long range forecasting. Hopefully their work can continue, if only because of the history behind it, but also because of the science. From a technical standpoint, some of the reading is pretty solid and interesting. It may not always be accurate -- this year was one such example (it was across the board pretty bad for tropical forecasting) but even when the forecasts weren't accurate, the science was pretty well-grounded.