Sunday, November 03, 2013

Next Shot Of Rain Looms For Thursday

It looks as if we will go into a rinse and repeat mode in the Delaware Valley regarding weather over the coming days. Cooler air looms today and tomorrow in response to the cold trough shot moving overhead. In fact, tomorrow could provide us the coldest day so far this autumn as many of us struggle to reach 50. However, the shot of chill is not sustained as high pressure works offshore and winds veer southwesterly ahead of the next system in the pike.

This system is timing its arrival for Thursday with a round of rain as it moves on through. It could bring showers and drizzle as early as Wednesday evening as moisture increases ahead of the frontal boundary but the bulk of moisture and precipitation with the front move through Thursday.

At the surface, a band of rain and perhaps an embedded line of heavier rain could accompany the front. Unlike last Friday's squall line, wind energy with this system is not quite as robust. The strongest winds at 5000 feet up only get into the 50-60 mile per hour range, which is a bit lower than the 70 plus mile per hour winds we had with Friday's front.  While we can't rule out a "fall squall" setup on Thursday, it may not be as robust. We'll keep an eye on the trends with the low level jet ahead of the front to see how this materializes.

At minimum, we will have some dry weather over the next few days before we get a chance of rain in here.