Friday, November 15, 2013

Sunday Night & Early Monday Brings Rain & Some Wind

A large, potent storm will organize in the Dakotas and quickly scoot east and northeast into Canada as we work through Sunday and into Monday. This storm system will drag a cold front through the region on Monday morning, bringing an end to the warmup that's moving in for Sunday and Monday, with temperatures likely falling back to near or slightly below average levels on Tuesday.

The storm system's track is such that it will drag the bulk of wind and rain with it into Canada and New York State. We'll still have some rain to deal with as the front moves through but it looks like we'll probably not have a significant soaking by any stretch -- modeling indicates most locations will pick up between a quarter and a half inch of rain from this frontal system as it moves through. Winds could gust along the front and especially after the front as it moves through -- perhaps to 30-40 miles per hour -- but the bulk of wind energy will stay west and northwest of us if modeling is right. A robust 70 to 80 mile per hour low level jet exists across Western Pennsylvania and Western New York State -- those areas stand the best chance to deal with high levels of wind as the front moves through.

As such, the risk of severe thunderstorms (or fall squalls with severe criteria of wind) exists out to our west as well. While these areas are in a slight risk for now (the red shade is 30 percent odds of severe weather), the potential for a moderate risk in Ohio and Kentucky does exist on Sunday as this storm intensifies and the front pushes east.  It does not look like we'll get in on the severe risk level as the bulk of energy and dynamics passes well to our west and north.

Severe weather risk for Sunday in percentage levels.

However, we will get a breezy and rainy Sunday night into Monday as the front approaches and then passes the region.