Wednesday, November 06, 2013

Tomorrow's Front Not A Huge Rain Or Wind Producer

The incoming cool front for tomorrow will bring a couple of rounds of showers along with it but it lacks the same intensity or dynamics that last Friday's frontal boundary had with it.  Showers move in during the morning hours and linger through the midday and afternoon before exiting stage right in the afternoon. These will not be accompanied by a fall squall although there will be some 15-25 mile per hour breezes along and ahead of the front.

Last Friday's front had 70 to 80 mph winds along the front at 5000 feet up. Tomorrow's front brings 40 to 50 mph winds at that same level. The result will be a calmer (although breezy at times) scenario for late tonight into tomorrow.

The amount of rain will be rather modest -- many spots will pick up just a tenth of an inch or two as the front moves through. As the front hits the coast, there's a chance that rainfall may pick up a bit in intensity as the mid level trough begins to catch the front and precipitation enhances a bit...the Shore could see upwards of a half inch of rain tomorrow afternoon and evening from the front.  Most of the rest of us are probably going to be in the tenth or two department.  Modeling generally ranges from GFS' tenth (if that) for I-95 to the Euro giving many locations a quarter inch or more.  The NAM sort of takes the middle ground with tomorrow.  All models do paint a bit more rain across the Poconos and Central Pennsylvania than they do for Philly.

In general, a bit of a yawner system tomorrow but one that reinforces cool air from Canada for the weekend.