Phillyweather.net

Stepping Down, Then Stepping Back Up

2012-01-30T04:39:00.001-05:00

Last night's front shot through with wind gusts to 40 miles per hour at Philly's Airport, bringing a quick thump of snow showers for a few locations in the western suburbs and in the city as its moved through. Despite the gusty winds, temperatures didn't drop much in the wake of the front and as of 4 AM are in the 30's across the region.

Today is shaping up as a breezy day with sunshine to start for most places, exception being the Poconos thanks to lake effect clouds. However, warmer air will try to nudge back in aloft later on today so clouds will increase across the region this afternoon. It will be blustery at times with west winds generally in the 10 to 16 miles per hour range through the day, with higher gusts this morning with lingering wind energy still around.

Despite the front and the wind, high temperatures won't be too terrible today. We're projecting 42 in the city, around 40 north of the city, and lower and middle 40's south. Today would mark another minor step down before we take a step back up in the temperature department on Tuesday as warmer air returns at the surface and aloft. Temperatures should get safely into the middle 50's tomorrow across much of the region, with a run at 60 on Wednesday looking pretty likely.

Incoming Cold Front Could Bring A Rumble of Thunder

2012-01-29T19:12:00.000-05:00

Doug talked about the incoming cold front for tonight and that it could bring a brief squall the region. It is moving east and has a decent amount of pop with it as it zips through Pennsylvania -- it should reach our region between 9 and 10 PM this evening with a gusty round of showers. Those showers will generally be snow north of the city, with a sprinkle/flurry/snow shower south of the city (moisture support is pretty poor south of the city).

The best chances for anything more than a few flakes of snow will be to the north of I-78 -- generally the Poconos could see a coating or a rogue inch of snow, with most of us getting little to nothing. However, there's a decent bit of dynamic pop with this system as it rolls east and it could bring a rumble or two of thunder as it moves through.

Lightning detection from Strikestarus.com shows a few lightning strikes across Western Pennsylvania over the 6 PM hour -- one strike near Indiana University and another near Pittsburgh, with more strikes up in Upstate New York near Buffalo as the squall rolls in off Lake Erie. The odds that this survives the trek across Pennsylvania and brings thunder into our region is remote -- but not impossible. Again, the better chance of this would be up north -- Poconos, Northern Tier of PA, but it will be something to track for those to the north of the city. Locally, the biggest impacts will be wind increasing later on tonight -- gusting to 40 mph in spots as the cold front blasts through.

More: Current Weather Page

Weather Rewind: January 22-28, 2012

2012-01-29T18:09:00.000-05:00

It was rather warm last week -- arguably not as warm as we thought it could get but temperatures did average 9.1 degrees above average for the week in Philadelphia, with just Sunday being the lone chilled day locally thanks to a high of 34 degrees just before Midnight. Two surges of warmth -- on Monday evening into early Tuesday morning and again on Friday helped drive the significant temperature departure although every day through the duration of the week was above average in the Delaware Valley.

Rainfall in Philadelphia totaled 0.76" for the week, with just under three tenths of an inch from Monday's rains and just under a half inch from the Thursday night & Friday event. Some rumbles of thunder were heard in a few spots on Friday morning with the squall line that moved through in the morning hours, with gusty winds taking over during the afternoon as the cool front crossed the region.

Despite a few cool days of late, the average temperature this month has been running over four degrees above average this month...and in the last two weeks temperatures in much of the United States have averaged above average, warmest to normal across the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast where departures have been close to ten degrees above average. Where's the cold you may ask? The Pacific Northwest and Alaska. Nome, for instance, has averaged twenty degrees below normal this month alone.

Forecast for Monday, January 30, 2012

2012-01-29T16:02:00.004-05:00

Tonight, a strong cold front will pass through the area. Both the NAM and GFS have come in drier with latest runs. However, there still appears to be a chance for snow squalls or a round of snow showers. As I mentioned yesterday, the best chances of this happening are north and west of the city. There still appears that raindrops could mix in initially in any snow shower closer to the coast, if it precipitates at all in these areas. Winds will increase and gust between 35 and 45 MPH. Any snow shower may combine with the wind to cause reductions in visibility. At this point, it is a touch of snow at best for most with scattered coatings. It is possible that in the Poconos there could be a narrow area of highly localized inch reports. With dropping temperatures, it may cause spots of black ice.

Our next issue will be a weak warm front on late Monday Night into early on Tuesday. The moisture with this system is not too deep. Therefore, I think there may be a few areas of patchy drizzle and fog. If temperatures fall back a bit in the evening, north and west may have some spotty freezing drizzle. If moisture with the front happens to be great enough…some light snow cannot be ruled out.

Tuesday still looks like a day where if a temperature forecast were to go wrong, this is when it would happen. The warm front will hopefully progress far enough north to allow Philadelphia to at least hit the mid-fifties. On Wednesday, ahead of a cold front, temperatures may hit or do better than sixty degrees. A line of showers with perhaps a rumble or two of thunder and gusty winds may develop ahead of the front. There remains considerable uncertainty about how far east this front moves before putting on the breaks. This is important as some of the model guidance is suggesting a wave of energy developing along the front Thursday into Friday. Another system may also impact the area for the weekend. It is too early to get into precipitation types at this moment with such high uncertainty. Temperatures for now are a middle ground and may be swung up or down in future forecasts. Models have performed very poorly this winter in the long range.

Taking The Second Of Three Steps Back

2012-01-29T05:21:00.024-05:00

Yesterday's high near 50 degrees will be approached today but thanks to a cool front crossing the region overnight, we'll get knocked back another notch in the temperature department. Last night's front didn't do much precipitation wise, bringing a few sprinkles to the region, but winds picked up and gusted to over 30 mph in much of the region in the late evening and Midnight hours.

Winds won't be quite as strong today but they will still be a bit of a factor, gusting to over 20 mph from time to time. Despite that, and the fact temperatures will be a couple of degrees cooler, it will be a pretty similar day to yesterday around here. Expect highs in the middle and upper 40's across the region with a mix of sunshine and cloud cover. More sun will be expected this morning and early afternoon, with more cloud cover expected during the late afternoon and evening hours. The third step down occurs after the second of two cool fronts crosses the region after dark tonight, bringing a rain or snow shower. The best chance for snow showers are generally city and northwest. At worst, some coating accumulations are possible in a few spots but with winds picking back up in the wake of this next front it could make for a "fun" couple of hours Sunday evening as the front moves through. We'll have more on that later on this evening.

New Plant Hardiness Zone Maps Are Out

2012-01-28T19:00:00.059-05:00

For the agriculturally and garden inclined, knowing what "zone" you are in is sometimes really important when it comes to knowing what you can get away with in your garden, yard, or farm for crops. The last time the USDA issued zone hardiness maps was in 1990...it took until earlier this week for them to come out with new maps, which do show a number of changes around the Delaware Valley.

A plant hardiness zone, for those who never has gardened before or never want to, basically is an indication of how low temperatures can get in a particular geographic location. From there, plants and trees are assigned to a zone by their ability to withstand extreme low temperatures.

The last map, in 1990, looked at a twelve year window of low temperatures (1974-1986), with the new map providing for a thirty year window of temperature (1976-2005) and was computer-aided in its design and detail. More information, better accuracy one could surmise.

Chief among the changes is the introduction of zone 7b into the Delaware Valley. 7b used to be confined to Southern Delaware and generally south of Washington, DC but now encircles the southern fifty or so percent of the city, Southwest New Jersey, and along the Delaware River to Wilmington, as well as Cape May County. Zone 7a, which used to be into Philadelphia only, has expanded into Southeastern Pennsylvania and much of South Jersey. The rest of our immediate area is in zone 6b.

One could make the argument that this is an example of climate change at work. Yeah, you could and we won't dispute one way or the other the thought of that being a player in this. One big, concrete factor that gets little mention though -- the urban heat island and increased urbanization in general. Average low temperatures have increased over the last 20 years thanks to more development around the Airport...we've also had a less favorable pattern for cold in the Eastern US over that time frame.

In Philadelphia, the average low during the 1951-1980 time frame was 45.3 degrees. By 2011, our average low for the 1981-2010 time frame had increased to 47.0 degrees (total of 1.7 degrees). Our average highs in those two separate thirty year periods increased at a slower rate, from 63.5 to 64.7 (1.2 degrees). That half degree difference (the extra nighttime warming) can be attributed in some extent to urbanization.

Anyways, you can check out the new zones by state and nationally at the USDA's website.

Forecast for Sunday, January 29, 2012

2012-01-28T16:14:00.003-05:00

Much of Sunday Morning will be sunny. Temperatures will climb nicely after 9 a.m. with temperatures rising into the forties by early afternoon. Clouds will begin to increase throughout the afternoon. A strong cold front is expected to approach by Sunday Evening and pass through Sunday Night into very early on Monday.

This cold front could cause hazardous travel to develop on Sunday Night into early Monday, especially north and west of Philadelphia. Scattered, squally showers will be associated with the front. While initially the showers will either be a mix of rain and snow or rain…colder air will be advecting in and dragged to the surface by the showers. The result will be a transition to snow as the dominant precipitation type. The transition to snow will be slower to occur closer to the coastline. In addition, the precipitation may be more widespread in the Lehigh Valley and Poconos. All areas should dip below freezing by morning, so even areas that do not see all snow will have to contend with patches of black ice. As the cold front moves through, winds may gust past 40 MPH. With the snow and wind, it may look rather dramatic for a few hours for some in parts of the area. Otherwise, even if you are just seeing the wind gusts...these could take down some branches and make driving difficult. Visibility could be reduced to less than half mile if there are heavy snow showers and gusty winds. In areas that see mostly snow...scattered coatings are possible. In the far northern suburbs, a narrow and highly localized band of one to two inches of new snow accumulation cannot be ruled out.

We quickly see a return to sunshine on Monday Morning with temperatures rising through the thirties by late afternoon. We may not see much of a drop on Monday Evening as clouds move in ahead of a warm front. The models do not indicate much in the way of showers with the front. However, some fog or drizzle cannot be ruled out. We will have to monitor this warm front for potential freezing drizzle in the normally colder locations.

On Tuesday, yet again it may be a difficult temperature forecast with a bust potential existing. South and East of Philadelphia will have the greatest potential to enter the warm sector. Philadelphia struggled with the previous warm front, but I am optimistic for now that at least later in the day…Philadelphia can rise through the mid-fifties.
On Wednesday, with the front expected to clear much of the area (at least at this point)…temperatures may rise past 60 degrees in the city.

Considerable uncertainty exists for the remainder of the extended forecast. A cold front passes through on Wednesday Night and then questions exist about whether it will pass through or put on the breaks. This has significant sky cover, temperature, and precipitation type of implications.

Not As Mild Today But Still Above Average

2012-01-28T07:29:00.000-05:00

At this time yesterday morning we were flirting with 60 while it was raining out in many spots across the region. It's a bit more "typical" out there for late January as temperatures this morning are in the 30's under skies that range from partly to completely cloudy based on location. Today will not be as mild as yesterday afternoon was, nor as windy, but it will still be mild by January standards while we're dealing with occasional breezes that gust over 20 miles per hour.

In terms of temperatures, we should reach the upper 40's northwest of the city and the low 50's along I-95 and points southeast for highs. Our average highs in the city are around 40 so we're going to get about ten degrees above average today. In terms of skies, expect a varied mix of sun and clouds, with more cloud cover northwest of the city and more sunshine southeast.

The first of two troughs will push through the Mid Atlantic tonight, bringing a shower or sprinkle to the region between 6 and 10 PM. Temperatures will be mild enough locally where it will be liquid, not frozen...and not a big deal since the atmosphere isn't exactly abundant with moisture. These two cool fronts will knock temperatures back about five degrees per day for both Sunday and Monday...before another bounce higher in temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday...and yeah, 60 is not out of the question by Wednesday afternoon.

Weather History: January '77's Blizzard Night

2012-01-27T19:16:00.000-05:00

January 1977 was the coldest month in modern Philadelphia climate record, averaging over a dozen degrees colder than our current normals and averaging just 20 degrees for high/low blend throughout the month. Compared to the relatively mild January we've had, January 1977 would definitely be a shock to our system. It is the true gold standard of cold months though in Philadelphia and one that arguably will be tough to reach again.

The "warm" day of January '77 was January 28th -- a high of 43 degrees in Philadelphia and Atlantic City. The day was also marked by a passage of a strong cold front during the early evening hours. Philadelphia's had its share of strong cold fronts in the past that dropped temperatures 15, 20 degrees in an hour; however, this front also brought potent winds along with a period of snow, resulting in a short duration blizzard in the Delaware Valley.

The wake of the cold front resulted in intense winds, gusting to 56 mph in Atlantic City, 52 mph in Philadelphia, 58 mph in Reading, and 67 mph in Allentown. Temperature drops of fifteen to as much as 26 degrees accompanied the front as it passed through within an hour's time. This storm was more notorious to Buffalo and Upstate New York as the Blizzard of '77 -- bringing a foot of new snow along with multiple feet of wind swept snow off of frozen Lake Erie. Locally, the system didn't bring much much in the way of snow -- accumulations were trace to a couple of inches with the squall front as it blew through the region. However, the impact of the storm was a several day duration of arctic chill and strong winds -- the high on the 29th in Philadelphia was just 18 degrees and it taking until February 2nd before the high temperature got back above freezing.

Much of January '77 featured the above look aloft in the atmosphere -- a strong mid level low and polar vortex over Eastern Canada, with a ridge of high pressure situated along the West Coast. That resulted in the coldest month on Philadelphia's record.

January 28th, 2012 Forecast

2012-01-27T15:56:00.001-05:00

In the wake of today's brief and fleeting warm up in some places, a cool front will bring about a bit of a reality check. Temperatures will not drop much in the wake of the front but instead of talking about 60's we'll be talking low 50's in many locations tomorrow.

Winds will be an issue through most of the evening hours, gusting to 30 mph this evening before slackening off later on. Temperatures will drop down to around the freezing mark in the city by morning, with upper 20's and low 30's common throughout the rest of the region later tonight. Skies will feature a mix of clouds and stars later on.

Saturday's sky will feature more sunshine in the morning, some increase in clouds during the afternoon as a weak front moves in from the west. A few showers are possible after sunset on Saturday evening but they should be minor in coverage across the region. Highs should end up being in the 49-53 range across the region, with low 50's in the city.

The weak front will serve to knock temperatures back a few degrees on Sunday, with another minor front crossing the region Sunday night with another shot of rain or snow showers in the region. Monday will be the "coolest" day of the upcoming stretch before we moderate back into the 50's...perhaps as soon as Tuesday.

Temperatures' Gonna Jump Up, Jump Up, And Get Down

2012-01-27T05:34:00.001-05:00

If you're not a fan of 60 degree weather in January, today will bring a proverbial "House of Pain" to your dreams of snow as we'll get a few hours of fleeting warmth ahead of a cold front (at least in Philadelphia). It's eventually going to move in -- temperatures are near 60 in Virginia and Southern Delaware, 50's as close to us as Millville and Lancaster. We'll see that temperature bounce take place probably by 8 or 9 AM at the Airport, with temperatures bouncing to near 60 by late this morning and eventually topping out around 62 at the Airport.

High temperatures will vary quite a bit by location. The Lehigh Valley may stay in the 40's today, with 50's common south of Quakertown and Reading. I think the 60+ air hangs out generally east and south of 202 as a general boundary in the Philadelphia metro, with most of South Jersey getting to near or just above 60 degrees as well although the Shore may hang in the upper 50's for a time thanks to the effect of the ocean. Weird I'm saying that in January. Regardless, it will warm up for a time later this morning although the extent of how warm may vary a bit -- I do think the Airport will hit 60 for a couple of hours.

Showers and even a few rumbles of thunder are out to the west of the city and are generally moving east and northeast this morning. The first batch that's nearby at 5 AM will continue to lift northeast, with a second batch out west of Harrisburg which trails down south into Virginia that will push through between 9 AM and Noon for the city and west, with South Jersey and Delaware getting in on the steadier showers after 11 AM. As the morning progresses and warmer air pushes north, southerly breezes will increase to between 15 and 20 mph and the fog in place to the north of the warm front boundary will lift quickly as the milder surface air mixes in. As stated earlier, the warm front should cross through the Philly metro over the next few hours although it may struggle to get much north of the 202 corridor (which is why the outer north/west suburbs will probably only get to the 50's later as opposed to 60).

The cold front that will put an end of the March-like temperature madness is still out in Western Pennsylvania. That will cross through towards midday and in the early afternoon, putting an end to the warmth while temperatures begin a slow descent this afternoon. With the frontal boundary passing through, a shot of steadier/heavier rain and wind is possible, especially from the city on south. The Storm Prediction Center has Lower Delaware under a slight risk for severe "thunder"storms, which may ultimately be more a squall line of thunder-less wind and rain.

By evening, everyone north/west of the city should be back into the 40's, with low 50's still common in South Jersey and Delaware. Winds shift to the west and become a bit gustier (35 mph wind gusts are going to be common this afternoon) as we have a gradual return to more typical January weather.

Notes from the 92nd Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society

2012-01-26T18:00:00.001-05:00

Greetings from New Orleans! Writing this on Wednesday evening, and it's mild and muggy here, ahead of what should be a soaker of a rainstorm tonight and tomorrow.

I had an opportunity to attend the Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society this week for work (still one more day of talks tomorrow, but just going for a couple work-related items). For those of you that have never heard of the conference or were always curious about it, or heck, even never knew there WAS an American Meteorological Society, here's a link to the conference agenda. Also, for those of you that were curious about the details contained in the talks, the AMS provides a wonderful service by putting all the presentations online after the conference adjourns. (Just a caveat...I'm not 100% sure if that's limited to dues-paying members of AMS or not, but check it out in a week or two). They've also been blogging all week on the AMS "Front Page." Also, you can just do a twitter search for the hash-tag #ams2012 to get some insights on the goings on, both inside and outside the conference.

Anyway, the conference is the pre-eminent meeting of meteorologists from all background here in the US. It's usually held in January or February (early January next year in Austin) and some of the more frequent locations for it include Long Beach, CA, Seattle, Atlanta, Phoenix, New Orleans, and Austin. 2020's will be in mid January in Boston...I squirm a little at that! I tried to blend the talks I went to between (mostly) things I found useful for my day to day forecasting and work, along with interests in the field that I have. The following are some notes I took over the last few days from some talks you may find interesting. I'll try and be brief where I can, and don't hesitate to post questions in the comments or on Facebook if something doesn't make sense.

Climate Change

- Attended a talk on global extremes, specifically related to a possibly warming climate (staying out of the global warming debate on this...there were a LOT of talks on that with the latest research and all, but I didn't have a chance to attend many). There was discussion about the US Climate Extremes Index, developed as a way to gauge how extreme the weather has been and if there are trends. There was a push to develop "fact sheets" on certain kinds of events with a lot of information that will answer obvious questions after major/extreme events.

Seasonal and US Weather

- Several talks from folks at AER Inc. that are refining a "snow advance index" they developed that links October snow cover advances in Eurasia to the state of the Arctic Oscillation (AO).

- A group from Lyndon State College have found a link between a preconditions for extreme precipitation events in winter in the Northeast (rain or ice) and subsequent cold air outbreaks in the Central and Southeastern US (in other words, perhaps a way to predict the state of the AO as it changes).

- Some research that throws up a major caution flag on utilizing sudden warming events in the stratosphere to predict the state of the AO and possible pattern changes in winter.

2011 Severe Weather Season

The most sobering and eye opening talks I attended had to do with the tornado outbreaks of 2011. Here are some highlights.

- Research was done into how it was possible for three waves of tornadic thunderstorms to occur on April 27th (the Alabama Superoutbreak), and it was hypothesized that a very strong 850 mb low level jet out of the Gulf allowed for quick replenishment of the atmosphere after each wave passed.

- The early morning line of thunderstorms in Alabama and Tennessee (which is known as a Quasi-Linear Convective System (QLCS)...good info on that here) caused many, many power outages that possibly had a negative impact on the ability for people to receive warnings when the main event struck that afternoon. There was also talk about how those sorts of lines of thunderstorms need to have the warning size reduced for tornadic spinups. There's frequently a large warning issued to cover most of the line, when it should be smaller warnings issued for the main threat areas.

- It was also hypothesized that some people may have believed that the AM event WAS the main event.

- Some modeling was done on predicting tornado tracks of past outbreaks vs. April 27th, and the 2011 one showed insanely extreme characteristics in the modeling ahead of time...in other words, this was more than likely a once in a lifetime event.

- The NWS Service Assessment summary didn't really have much new to it. There's some discussion that Tornado Watches may have been issued almost too early. It was obvious that people seem to wait for confirmation of a threat before they believe what they hear about that possible threat.

- The talk at the conference seemed to indicate a strong consideration within and outside of the NWS for dynamic warnings (warnings that are issued by a meteorologist and then automatically refresh every 1-minute to reduce overwarning and free up manpower to work on confirmation, reports, analysis, etc.). There was also a push to produce more "familiar" placenames in the warnings so people hear the "trigger" they need to take action...this was also to remind TV meteorologists of the importance of that.

- During April 27th the NWS in Atlanta issued small polygon warnings for tornadoes, surrounding them with larger severe thunderstorm warnings to account for non-tornadic threats and to minimize overwarning. This seemed to be met with some consternation in the room, as that is a ton of work during an event like 4/27.

- No work is planned immediately to reduce the false alarm rate (FAR) of tornado warnings (major theme of the 2011 tornadoes was the public's warning fatigue in some of these places, namely Joplin, where sirens go off and warnings are issued, but "nothing ever happens here."). The NWS sees no benefit to that right away, but they are beginning work to make methodical changes to how business is done with the hopes of reducing FAR soon.

- NOAA Weather Radios have made a leap to SAME code technology, but there is word that a couple companies have developed prototypes for GPS based weather radios.

- The St. Louis Airport tornado last spring provided the impetus to force them to develop clearly marked shelter signs and a backup plan (that didn't exist) if they had to evacuate the airport control tower. Also, the FAA didn't disseminate tornado warnings to pilots (including two planes that were on the tarmac at the time the tornado hit) because those "aren't aviation specific products." And they still have not added them to their data suite...I'm beyond perplexed.

- One of the cooler talks related to the Joplin tornado in May, and it described how there was actually a seismic signature recorded as the tornado passed 1.7km from a station with a seismograph. These stations also come equipped with other sensors and there was a tremendously intriguing signature of a lot of turbulence that can't be explained as background noise once the tornado came within 10 km of the station. The moral of this talk was that there may be a way to detect tornadoes in progress when no visual confirmation can be confirmed.

- Consensus was that as bad as the Joplin tornado was, had it struck during a weekday or had the high school had its graduation as planned in the auditorium, it could have been far worse, as in death toll near 1,000.

- Mike Smith, who runs the Meteorological Musings blog and wrote a book (currently in my queue to read) called "Warnings" (about the amount of life saving work that's been done to improve the US warning system for weather) made what I thought was a poignant (but necessary) challenge at one of the talks regarding Joplin about the shortcomings of the warnings issued during that afternoon by the NWS in Springfield. There was much discussion about tornado sirens and how there needs to be standards regarding when they need to be activated, as their usefulness becomes diminished as people are overwarned continuously.

- Nate Johnson from WRAL in Raleigh gave a good talk on how social media has exploded in severe weather (specifically relating the North Carolina tornado outbreak in April as an example). It's actually become a vital tool now (not just for NWS, but for media) to get the message out and to gather up to date information.

All in all, there's a lot there, but these were serious talks that had to be made regarding the warning system, the sociological side of weather (what I like to call "sociometeorology"), and the methodology that we all go about trying to get the message to people. I found it to be very eye-opening, sobering, and it poses a significant challenge to folks in the NWS and the media going forward.

January 27th, 2012 Forecast

2012-01-26T14:59:00.000-05:00

Tonight: Steady rain north and west of the city will move south and east, bringing steady and heavier rain into the I-95 corridor late tonight. Early lows will be near 45 degrees. Temperatures will rise to near 60 degrees by 7 AM. Southeast winds will shift from the south at 5 to 15 mph. The sunset this evening is at 5:13 PM.

Friday: Rain through midday. It will be heaviest between 4 AM and 7 AM. High of 61 degrees in Philadelphia around 11 AM before temperatures fall into the mid-40s by 5 PM. South winds will shift from the northwest in the afternoon at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

Saturday: Mix of sun and clouds, cooler. High in the upper 40s.

Sunday: Few clouds and cool. High in the mid-40s.

Friday Planner

7 AM 59 degrees, Rain

11 AM high 61 degrees

Noon 59 degrees, Rain Begins to Depart

5 PM 46 degrees, Windy, Cooler

Sunrise 7:14 AM

Sunset 5:14 PM

Happy Anniversary Thundersnowstorm!

2012-01-26T09:00:00.000-05:00

It wasn't long ago that we were cracking backs, popping out shoulders, and digging ourselves out from large dumpings of snow. Our last big snowstorm in Philadelphia occurred a year ago today, bringing 15.1" of thumping to Philadelphia, with as much as 17" in some sections of the city.

Thunder, lightning, and a boatload of snow accompanied this storm system as it moved through in two waves...the first during the morning rush hour on Wednesday morning, bringing a rather nasty commute in many places and sending some school buses back home with kids as a few districts changed their minds on school while the snow blitzed through. Wave number two, moving in during the evening hours, brought the majority of snow in a six hour thump and was accompanied by the thunder and lightning show as the storm system rolled through. This low had originated in Texas, pushed east to Tennessee before a secondary low developed near Cape Hatteras. That second low lifted northeast and became the dominant low pressure system in rapid fashion. That explosive development helped fuel the large dumping the snow but also the instability needed to generate thunder.

Snowfall totals (see them above, with a full list here) reached over a foot in many spots in the Philly metro, immediate South Jersey, Wilmington, and into Southeast Pennsylvania...with our region generally in a bullseye swath of ten to twenty inches that extended back into Maryland and northeast into Southern New England.

That snowstorm was the second in a five week window that hit the Philly area, with the Boxing Day storm the front-end storm system for the region. Between the two storms, over 27" of snow fell in a winter that totaled 44", bringing Philadelphia its second back-to-back winter of 40" or more of snow.

Slow & Steady Climb Towards Rain & Warmth

2012-01-26T04:48:00.000-05:00

We're going to get a decent rain event out of the upcoming storm system, with the potential for an inch of rain in some locations by the time this storm system finishes its work in our region tomorrow midday. The first fingers of the storm system are in the region at this early hour -- showers are falling in some locations to our north, whether in the form of rain, sleet, snow, or some combination of the three. However, precipitation is light and no advisories are out since the precipitation really isn't a huge issue nor expected to be an issue as many surface temperatures are near or just above freezing.

Temperatures are starting in the 30's across the region and will slowly climb through the day today -- generally to the middle 40's by dinner from the Philly suburbs on south, with upper 40's at the Shore and lower 40's in the Lehigh Valley. Those will likely not be the highs of the day as temperatures will continue to climb through the evening hours and into Friday morning, where we could be approaching 60 degrees south and east of the city by early Friday morning as warmth pushes up the East Coast ahead of this next cold front. In the city, we're looking at 45 or so as the daytime high.

Showers will return later on this afternoon as the main brunt of the system pushes in from the west and southwest, with a steadier rain becoming likely towards dinner or in the evening hours. Rain will be occasional, steady at times, and some spots will pick up an inch of rain before this event is done tomorrow midday. No flooding issues are likely but some of the usual suspect spots could see some localized ponding of water early tomorrow morning. Along with the rains will be increasing wind from the southeast and south later tonight, with breezes that could gust over 20 miles per hour inland, approaching 30 at the Shore.

State Of Snow

2012-01-25T18:29:00.000-05:00

We've talked a fair bit about the state of the snow cover in the US in December and how putrid, pathetic, and awful it was...well, maybe not that exaggerated but we did chat about how snow cover in December and early January was the lowest we had seen since 2006 in the lower 48 and surmised about the various reasons behind it.

How are we doing now? Well, a bit better but compared to the last few years we're still a bit starved for snow.

Through yesterday, 40.8% of the lower 48 was covered by at least some snow, which is up a good bit from last December at this time (we were around 30% coverage on Christmas Eve). Snow cover is prevalent in the mountainous west, which has picked up quite a bit of snow over the past week or so, as well as increasing in quantity across the Midwest and Great Lakes after struggling to get snow for the early portions of winter. We (and our friends north and west of us in Central Pennsylvania) also had some snow on the ground, although a lot of that in the Appalachians and in portions of Southern New England will finish its melt by this time Friday thanks to incoming rainfall.

While we're getting better in the snowy standings, 2012 is still the least snowy year in the last few nationally. At the same time last year, we were looking at 47.3% of the nation covered by at least some snow, with the geographic extent of snow extending much farther south (Ohio Valley, Missouri, a bit more extensive snow pack across the Appalachians and Midwest, plus a healthy snow pack in the Northeast)....and this was before the thundersnowstorm that hit us a couple of days later.

The extent and depth of the snowpack in 2011 was higher than this year as well (the average depth nationally is 4.1" as of yesterday for those with snow on the ground, 6.7" a year ago). In terms of percentage, 2012 does rank above 2009 (38.2% through yesterday) in terms of percentage of coverage, but both years are the least snowy nationally since 2006. While not the bumper crop of snow that the nation has seen the last couple of winters, we're at least seeing a return some signs of January being January in a number of places nationally. Here, our January is acting a bit more volatile and moody in terms of temperature swings but at least we've even been able to cash in on a few flakes.

January 26th, 2012 Forecast

2012-01-25T16:06:00.004-05:00

A storm system is moving on in from the southwest and will bring us some steady rains tomorrow night and early Friday. However, the first fingers of the storm system will be working into the region later tonight as warmer air aloft works over a shallow "cool" layer of air at the surface. This overrunning setup could spit out some snow, sleet, or light rain showers to the city's west after 2 or 3 AM. Some of this might work into the city but the odds favor more the western suburbs and northwestern suburbs than the city itself. Any showers that do develop will generally be light but precipitation type is tougher to pin down because temperatures will be marginal at both the surface and aloft...but the best chances for frozen will be northwest, with a better chance of just "plain" rain southwest.

Thursday features those morning showers, perhaps a break for a time, with more showers spreading in during the midday and afternoon hours. Those showers could become a steadier rain towards evening, which will yield a decent rain event for Thursday night into Friday that could bring upwards of an inch of rain.

Temperatures tonight drop to near freezing in the city, in the upper 20's or low 30's in the burbs around midnight before leveling off and perhaps even rising a notch or two before daybreak. Thursday's highs will range from the low 40's northwest to the upper 40's southeast. With rains around Thursday night, temperatures hold steady for the evening, then rise after Midnight into the 50's for the city and south, perhaps to around 50 northwest for Friday morning.

Some Sun, Some Clouds, Some Nice January Temperatures

2012-01-25T04:48:00.000-05:00

We're dealing with a decent shield of stratocumulus (low to mid level clouds) early this morning. Some of this should thin out later on as the sun rises, leaving us a mostly sunny midday in a good chunk of the region. However, a storm system is organizing in the South and will push northeast, sending some clouds back into the region later this afternoon. In essence, a clouds and sun hodgepodge in the sky through today...but it will be dry once again and more melting will take place of the last few snow piles lurking around.

Temperatures this morning range from the upper 20's in Millville (where skies were clear most of the night) to near 40 in the city, with mid and upper 30's common across Southeastern Pennsylvania. Highs today will generally get into the middle 40's across the region, with northwest breezes around 10 mph this morning slackening off to 5 mph this afternoon.

We have a chance of a late night snow/sleet/rain shower as the first fingers of the aforementioned storm system work into the region. The best chances of any of that occurring will be west of the city after 3 or 4 AM. Temperatures will be close to freezing, hence the myriad of precipitation types listed. It shouldn't be a huge deal in terms of accumulations if it falls as frozen but it might be a coating type situation if we end up spitting snow out of the sky...nor will it last long on the ground as temperatures will be back into the 40's on Thursday as the storm system moves in with the prospect of a solid thumping of rain.

January's Theme Is Volatility

2012-01-24T18:32:00.000-05:00

We spoke of the roller coaster that has been January last week and yes, the pattern has continued over the past seven days with 50's sandwiching a cold and snowy Saturday and just plain cold Sunday. January is shaping up as a yo-yo type of month...although this week's coolest weather in general probably was what we experienced on Monday morning. We should generally be mild through Friday before we begin another pendulum swing back towards the colder.

Thursday features a storm system moving in from the southwest, with light showers starting up in the morning hours before becoming a steadier rain later in the day and in the overnight hours. Those light showers may start in the form of sleet or perhaps light snow over the Lehigh Valley and the Poconos IF they move in early enough in the day Thursday...but with milder air quickly moving in aloft and at the surface any frozen precipitation should transition over to rain in short order. This storm system will take a mild track for the region as low pressure generally will track up I-81 and the Appalachians, which puts us firmly in the warm sector...and rainy sector.

Rain becomes steady by Thursday evening, perhaps heavy at times early Friday before the front crosses the region. Temperatures will be on the rise on Thursday night and Friday morning into the 50's, perhaps even 60 degrees ahead of the front for South Jersey and Delaware. With another day of additional sunshine prior to this storm system, we should lose any last bits and pittances of snow that are still left in your yard. However, this storm system will bring a good deal of rain -- an inch or two seems to be a good bet as this moves through, perhaps with some gusty winds and a rumble of thunder across Delaware.

After the front crosses the region on Friday, cooler but not terribly cold air moves in for Saturday...however, a second cold front pushes down from Canada on Sunday morning, crossing the region and then intensifying in the Atlantic. Both the GFS and Euro show the front developing low pressure on it as it hits the coastline...with snow showers accompanying the frontal passage and then possibly being enhanced as the system moves northeast and strengthens. At this point, we're not talking about major snowfall but Sunday has the appearance of a blustery, chilled day with snow showers and flurries around.

Seasonably cold but nothing too chilly will linger in the wake of this front, with another storm system for the middle of next week looking to bring...you guessed it...more rain and potentially milder temperatures.

January 25th, 2012 Forecast

2012-01-24T15:18:00.000-05:00

Tonight: Mostly clear skies with a chilled breeze. Lows will drop to near 30 degrees. Winds will be out of the west-northwest at 5 to 15 mph. The sunset this evening is at 5:10 PM.

Wednesday: Sun to clouds, cooler. High in the lower to mid-40s. Winds will be out of the northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Thursday: Clouds thicken and rain moves in during the afternoon. High in the mid-40s. Rain will continue overnight, and temperatures will rise overnight.

Friday: Rain departs and it becomes windy in the afternoon. After an early high in the upper 50s, temperatures will fall into the lower to mid-40s.

Wednesday Planner

7 AM 31 degrees, Chilled Start

Noon 39 degrees, Sun to Clouds

4 PM high 43 degrees

5 PM 42 degrees, Cooler

Sunrise 7:15 AM

Sunset 5:11 PM

Clouds Will Lift, Eventually!

2012-01-24T04:18:00.000-05:00

We warmed up last night to 52 degrees before midnight in advance of the cold front, with temperatures generally holding in the 50's for much of the night in South Jersey and Southern Delaware as milder air hung in place...it merely took a lil while to get that level of warming into the city but it did arrive late in the evening. The front has crossed the city over the past couple of hours and temperatures have drifted back down into the 40's. For those south and east of the city, the low 50's on the map above will gradually trend down to the upper 40's over the next few hours as the front's "push" of cool air works in. It's still a mild morning and will be a mild day on the whole.

Clouds and fog are still with us -- the fog is locally dense across Central Pennsylvania and the far western suburbs where visibility levels are down to a quarter mile in Lancaster and Coatesville at 4 AM. We'll see fog and low clouds hang around for most of the morning before west breezes help scour out the low level moisture and gray malaise, leaving us a mostly sunny afternoon. Temperatures should rebound back up to 52 this afternoon in the city, near 50 north/west, and in the 53-55 range south and east of the city. While the weather will start gray and blah today, it will improve as we progress.

Alabama Tornado Outbreak (Again)

2012-01-23T19:00:00.000-05:00

Alabama was in the cross hairs of another severe weather outbreak last night, with at least 21 tornadoes from a line of severe weather that zipped through the state during the predawn hours of Monday. At least two died and approximately 100 were injured from that line of storms that raced through the state during the 2-6 AM timeframe.

The cause of the outbreak was the strong storm system that moved through the Great Lakes today, with a trailing cold front into the Deep South. Warm and humid air for January had been bubbling across the South for the past few days, with temperatures in Alabama in the 60's and 70's on Sunday ahead of the front. Thunderstorms broke out in Arkansas on Sunday evening and moved east through the night, spawning multiple tornado watches and touchdowns throughout the South as these storms moved through.

The worst of the outbreak was in Alabama though, generally near Birmingham and east during the 3-6 AM time frame. During this, those severe thunderstorms increased in intensity and multiple strong tornadoes developed as the line continued its march.

The radar shot up above was from 4 AM and showed the line barreling down on Birmingham, with tornadic cells just northeast of the city (it's the one with the 68 near the red blob), with other thunderstorm cells to the southwest later poised to become severe. One of those cells is outlined below on a screenshot from ABC 33 in Birmingham, with the venerable James Spann handling the severe weather play-by-play during the outbreak.

Damage from these storms was impressive, as this panoramic display shows from Center Point. Another slideshow from the Birmingham News shows the destruction and some recovery efforts already taking place. An amazing photo of what tornadoes can do (and sometimes not do) is from the town of Clay, specifically in the Steeplechase development where this tornado destroyed the one house in the picture below, yet left others pretty much unscathed.

Wintertime outbreaks of severe weather aren't overtly unusual; however, those outbreaks are typically wind-driven in nature and rarely feature over twenty tornadoes. One of the more nasty severe weather outbreaks in winter in the South in recent years was the Super Tuesday Outbreak in 2008. However, arguably the largest severe weather event in January was the January 1999 outbreak (150 tornadoes over a several day period). Regardless, it was a nasty day in the Deep South and another round of clean up for an area that has already been slapped around far too many times in the last year by Mother Nature.

January 24th, 2012 Forecast

2012-01-23T15:08:00.035-05:00

This evening's shower activity will clear out of here later on tonight, bringing us a mild couple of days by January standards for Tuesday and Wednesday. While it will not be as warm as modeling was surmising a week plus ago at this time, it will be a mild stretch of weather for the next few days until we ease into a more "traditional" late January look in the atmosphere by this time next week.

Temperatures through the evening hours will remain moderate some in the city and north and west, buoyed by the presence of showers and milder air ahead of the front. For those in Jersey, 40's and 50's will remain common. Showers should taper off after 10 PM west, around Midnight or just thereafter for the city and east. By morning, temperatures will drop to around 40 in Philly, mid and upper 30's northwest, and near or just above 40 southeast of the city. Some clearing is possible late in the evening as well.

Tuesday's weather will be mild, with mostly sunny skies and a modest west breeze at 7-14 mph. We're thinking the high temperature should reach 51 in Philadelphia, upper 40's to near 50 northwest, and lower and middle 50's southeast of the city. Between the potential midnight high and daytime highs, it's going to be close to see which one ends up being the "official" high for the day for people south and east of Philadelphia but we will get some temperature bounce out of the daylight hours on Tuesday despite a cold front passing through our region. Enjoy...it'll be a pretty nice day for January.

For now, I've seen the Saturday snow chances that was referenced yesterday out of the picture as computer guidance in a couple of runs has shoved this storm southeast. We're keeping an eye on it just in case the north trend shows up. There will be some flurries or snow showers around on Sunday, probably early, with a secondary cool front crossing through that may fire up a low in the Atlantic (or enhance the southern system). That timing might ultimately speed up into Saturday evening but it's still a good ways off as the late week forecast will be a bit in flux for a couple of more days.

Just Ducky For A Monday

2012-01-23T04:56:00.000-05:00

As of 4:30 AM, temperatures are slowly climbing throughout the region. We have mid 30's around Southeastern Pennsylvania, upper 30's and 40's southeast of the city, with lower 30's in Berks County through the Lehigh Valley. Freezing rain advisories are still up in the Lehigh Valley, Berks, and Poconos as temperatures are still below freezing in many locations up there and drizzle is also a bit more prevalent up there. Locally, despite temperatures in the mid 30's there will be a few slick spots out there on roads as a cold day yesterday and Saturday will keep temperatures on the pavement a bit low. However, side road conditions should be able to quickly improve through the morning as temperatures continue to rise.

A cold front across Ohio and trailing south will move east and northeast today, spreading showers into the region later on today. Showers are most likely from 2 PM on locally and they will be steady/occasionally moderate through the early evening hours. Rainfall totals should average out to a quarter, perhaps a third of an inch. Temperatures will moderate through the day, with the highest readings likely to occur towards dinner and into the early evening. However, they will vary a good bit by location. We could see some 30's lurk through some of the valleys in the Lehigh Valley and Berks County this afternoon but we're generally forecasting 40-45 for those folks today, with 45-50 for the Southeastern PA Counties. The city should get into the lower 50's, albeit not by much, with lower and middle 50's common for South Jersey and Delaware. Winds will generally be light today, east to southeast 5-10 mph away from the coast, and south-southeast 10-15 mph along the coastline.

Weather Rewind, January 15-21, 2012

2012-01-22T20:42:00.003-05:00

Temperatures last week averaged 0.3 degrees below average in Philadelphia, our first below average week in a while. We were buoyed by our snowy and sleety Saturday, which brought us a high of 31...as well as our cold Sunday high of 29 degrees (early in the day), which was the coldest high temperature we have had this winter. In between those, we did bounce warmer on Tuesday and early Wednesday, with temperatures spiking into the 50's overnight between the two days as a mild surge of air worked up the coast. That warmth helped average out the week in what has been...and what will be a yo-yo month of weather.

Sunday was our coldest day of the year so far as high temperatures failed to reach the freezing mark, with lows in the teens at day's end. Some parts of the Northeast were rather cold -- with lows below zero as close to us as North Central Pennsylvania (-11 in Bradford), and below -20 across Upstate New York. Of course, compared to Fairbanks this type of cold is rather wimpy but it is January after all and occasional forays of chill are expected. However, our lows of 18 on Sunday and 17 on Monday morning were below average...a rarity in this winter so far.

Forecast for Monday, January 23, 2012

2012-01-22T17:00:00.000-05:00

Warmer air will surge northward with a warm front tonight. However, we have cold air trapped at the surface thanks to recent snow and ice and an area of high pressure trying to continue to influence our weather with flow from the north…pumping in the Canadian air. The warm air going overtop the cold air will produce light, overrunning precipitation. Therefore, widespread drizzle is expected and areas of fog. The fog will become more pronounced as temperatures warm and mild air rides over the snow pack in place. Removed from the coast, temperatures will be slightly below or around freezing as the drizzle begins. This may allow for the tiny droplets to create hazardous black ice and leave a light glaze of ice. We anticipate the Pocono Mountains and the Lehigh Valley to hold below freezing the longest, perhaps into the Monday Morning commute.

Warm fronts can cause a wide variation in temperature for the area. This time of the year, especially with the snow covered ground, they can also get hung up and fail to move as far north as one would expect. Fog formation is another factor as mild air sits above a snow pack and the low sun angle takes time to burn fog off. Therefore, our forecast for Monday in the temperature department should be viewed as one made with low confidence. Assuming the more reliable models are correct, Philadelphia should make it to the mid 50s. More aggressive numbers have Philadelphia around 60. Should we get well into the warm sector, thunderstorms would be a possibility on Monday Afternoon and Evening with a strong cold front. The colder air lags about a day behind the front.

Another system approaching for Thursday will bring a chance for rain and maybe some sleet pellets. I would be watching this, especially across our northern areas, for possible colder trends which would increase the chance for less liquid and more frozen precipitation types. A secondary system forming to the south around Saturday will be fighting an area of high pressure just to our north. If the system can move northward enough, snow and sleet could break out in the region with the air appearing cold enough.

This forecast period is not one set in stone. Check back with us throughout the week for updates and tomorrow we will have an update on temperature ranges in our Daycast feature.

Raw, Chilled Day For Many

2012-01-22T06:43:00.000-05:00

Skies are a hodgepodge of clear to cloudy depending on location as some holes in the overcast have developed last night and we'll see a mix of clouds and sun through the day today, but with everyone gradually nudging over to cloudy later on this afternoon. The best chances for the most sunshine today will be north of the city today, with everyone south of the city dealing with at least some cloud cover today. Despite the sunshine, it's not going to warm up tremendously thanks to the fresh blanket of snow and sleet from yesterday that the vast majority of the region picked up.

Expect daytime highs today near freezing north/west, in the mid 30's in the city, and in the mid 30's south/east of Philadelphia. We'll see that transition to clouds take place in the mid afternoon, with the region generally cloudy by sunset. Warmer air aloft and additional moisture will stream into the region overnight, helping precipitation break out to our north/west initially...and then spreading into the Philadelphia region later on. Thankfully in the city and most of the burbs, temperatures should hold steady this evening and perhaps rise enough to help mitigate the threat for any significant travel problems from freezing rain or freezing drizzle. However, farther north/west in the Lehigh Valley and Berks, temperatures will be cold enough for some slick travel overnight tonight...freezing rain advisories are out for them and points north through west (Central Pennsylvania and the Poconos are also included) for the potential of some icy weather later tonight.

Weather History: Last Subzero Low In Philadelphia

2012-01-21T19:26:00.050-05:00

Thursday marked the 18th anniversary of Philadelphia's last subzero low temperature and what was the coldest day in Philadelphia in 60 years. January, 19th, 1994 featured a morning low in Philadelphia of -5 degrees, which was not only a record for the date but also one of the coldest lows the city has had in January, bested only by -7 on two occasions in the early 1980's during some notorious arctic cold snaps that gripped the Eastern US. The 1994 arctic outbreak isn't remembered as much around these parts compared to "Cold Sunday" in the early 80's or some of the late 70's arctic shots. January 1994 is remembered locally for its ice storms but this arctic cold shot carried a lot of pop as a myriad of winter storms in early January laid the groundwork and snow cover over the Midwest for a massive ooze of arctic chill that lead to a parade of record lows being broken across the eastern half of the country.

Lows on January 19th in the Delaware Valley included -8 in Trenton, -13 in Reading, -11 in Allentown, and -5 in Wilmington. "Highs" for the day generally only inched above zero in a number of spots...reaching just 3 in Trenton, 6 in Philadelphia, and 1 (yeah, that's it) in Allentown and Reading. Wind chills stayed below zero throughout the day with breezes that were in the ten mile per hour range in the afternoon adding just enough bit to make it feel several degrees colder.

When you blend together the low and high for an average temperature, the "average" of 0.5 degrees for January 19th, 1994 in Philadelphia is the fourth lowest daily temperature average on record...in other words, it was the fourth coldest day since 1874. Only December 30th, 1880 (high of 5, low of -5), February 10th, 1899 (high of 5, low of -6), and February 11th, 1934 (high of 10, low of -11) were able to out-cold January 19th, 1994. To put the shot of cold in perspective, since the 1994 cold outbreak there have been only three days in Philadelphia where the average temperature (high and low) was at ten or below for the day, none since January 2004. That current streak is not the longest...it had been nine years between such days prior to the January 1994 cold wave, with the last uber cold day in January 1985 forcing President Reagan's second inaugural ceremony indoors in Washington.

The 1994 wave was one of the rare cold outbreaks in the country's history that even forced schools to shut down in Minnesota by order of the state's governor...temperatures in Minneapolis reached -26 with wind chills below -45 on January 18th...and "highs" in Minneapolis on the 18th only reached -17.

Forecast for Sunday, January 22, 2012

2012-01-21T17:00:00.001-05:00

At mid-afternoon, areas that had temperatures at or just below freezing have slid back a few degrees in the wake of colder air behind the departing low pressure area. Areas that had risen a few degrees above 32 are also now dropping below the freezing mark. The result has been to take slushy and wet surfaces and cause them to freeze up, if they hadn’t already been a sheet of ice due to freezing rain. In some areas, freezing drizzle continues to add a light coating of ice with each passing hour.

The difficulty tonight is to determine if and when the misting will shut off. There is some suggestion that moisture remains trapped at lower levels and areas of fog and mist continue, despite gradual clearing above the surface. We have been watching drier air attempting at puncturing into Philadelphia. The RPM model does hint at clearing, but may not be detecting the potential fog. Either way, it will be slippery and treacherous.

Sunday will be mostly cloudy, with possible intervals of sunshine. Modeling has come in colder for Sunday Night into early Monday as warm air overrides the colder in place, allowing for overrunning precipitation to develop. This means that while light, some areas could deal with freezing drizzle or light freezing rain. Temperatures will result in a close call again. Some sleet pellets are also possible. Snow would be limited to Mount Pocono. The region will enter the warm sector on Monday and if the warm front moves as far north as indicated, temperatures could be in the range of 55 to 60 in the city. Sometimes, these fronts can get stuck and temperatures bust.

A thunderstorm is possible on Monday Night with the front!

Freezing Drizzle Lingering Around

2012-01-21T13:49:00.000-05:00

Winter weather advisories are out until at least 5 PM in the Delaware Valley (purple shaded areas) as freezing drizzle and sleet continue in parts of the region. Temperatures in Philadelphia are still in the 20's, likely not rising above freezing at this point as cold air at the surface continues to wedge in. Milder air lurks to our south and will likely stay south of the city at this point as precipitation pulls away and cooler air over Philly and points north oozes south.

Roads across the area range from good on the major highways to meh in your local neighborhood. As the sun sets later on this evening, some refreeze can't be ruled out in the neighborhoods and on side streets. Most major roads should remain in good condition though.

Snowfall across the region ranges from one to three inches south of the city down to a Dover-Avalon line, with two to four inches generally north of the Pennsylvania Turnpike and I-195 in New Jersey...pretty close to our projections from last night (except for South Jersey which did better than expected in the snowfall department).

Blogging Through Saturday Morning's Snow & Ice

2012-01-21T04:27:00.008-05:00

Track Today's Precipitation

More information available on twitter through the morning and midday.

As the second wave moves in at 7:30, sleet is the main precipitation type in the western burbs as milder air has jumped in aloft. However, in heavier bursts of precipitation within the band we're seeing snowflakes drag down to the ground and getting anywhere from a 50-50 mix of snow and sleet to even mostly snow for those farther north of 422. Temperatures at the surface are still subfreezing and will likely remain that way through the duration of the event. This mixed bag of precipitation will move through the Pennsylvania suburbs, with a snow/sleet mix possible even into the Lehigh Valley as the second wave moves through over the next few hours. Freezing rain will probably be the bigger issue along I-95 and in immediate South Jersey above the NJ Turnpike/295 with the second wave as it moves through although sleet will mix from time to time as well. Snowfall totals through 7 AM are generally in that 1-3" range that we discussed in our 7 AM update.

Wave #2 should taper off between 11 AM (far west) and 2 PM (east) with some additional accumulation in terms of snow...this second wave will be a sleety compote that will pack down our fluffy snows from early this morning. We might coax another inch or two out of the batch, especially for those that are getting more snow than sleet...but with the sleety mess in the mix I wouldn't be surprised if accumulation totals are held in check over the duration of the event...

Lighter precipitation -- freezing drizzle and sleet -- generally is falling over Philly and South Jersey at this hour as the first slug of precipitation has moved away. The second round sits back west of the suburbs and is about an hour or so away from picking up in intensity around here. For those who are above freezing already or about to go above freezing -- you will see this second round fall in the form of rain. Those along and northwest of 295 will have a myriad variety of precipitation types to deal with. Snow is most likely in the Poconos and Lehigh Valley, with a mix of sleet and snow from the Pennsylvania Turnpike north to the edge of the upper burbs (basically Quakertown-Reading as the northern extent), with a mixed bag of sleet and freezing rain, mixed with snow in higher elevations south of the PA Turnpike to 295.

Snowfall totals as of 7 AM generally range between one and three inches for most of the region -- highest totals are in the northern and western suburbs, New Castle County in Delaware, and the Lehigh Valley.

The changeover to non-snow is taking place in parts of the region at this hour. Philly has started to mix with sleet (at the Airport at least), and freezing rain is now reported in Millville and also in Harrisburg to the west. Warmer air aloft is working in...and the surface down to our south continues to moderate as well as temperatures are now up to 40 in Southern Delaware and in the mid 40's down in Ocean City, MD. That warmer air will stay away from the city proper at the surface but we will continue to see moderation in temperatures aloft over the next few hours.

The next heavier wave of precipitation is working into Central Pennsylvania and into Maryland -- this will work east over the next couple of hours and we should see a heavier/steadier burst of precipitation after 8 AM across the Philadelphia metro, probably a mixed bag of sleet/snow in the city and immediate north/west burbs (below the PA Turnpike), with freezing rain and some sleet in South Jersey between the Delaware River and the NJ Turnpike up to exit 6. Above the PA Turnpike, we could see more snow than non-snow although sleet and perhaps freezing rain will mix in the lower elevations of the suburban counties in PA.

Snowfall is continuing across the city, South Jersey, and points north of there as the dryslot that I talked about earlier this morning has moved into Delaware. Temperatures are now above freezing in Atlantic City, with the rain/non-rain line generally extending from Wilmington around south of Millville to Atlantic City, with Wilmington having transitioned over to light freezing rain as of 5 AM. I would expect as precipitation tapers off south of the city over the next couple of hours to see temperatures aloft rise up a bit and go above freezing. There is more precipitation back across West Virginia and Western Pennsylvania that is about 3-4 hours away from us -- when that moves through later, it will be primarily liquid for folks south of the city and east of I-295 in Jersey...whether it falls as sleet, snow, or freezing rain north/west sorta remains to be seen based on how much slackening in precipitation takes place north/west of I-95 over the next couple of hours and how much warming takes places aloft.

Snow's flying early this morning for many above a Dover-Avalon line as the first thump of winter is moving on in. Accumulations are in the inch or so inch range above the Garden State Parkway in Jersey, with a couple of inches in the higher hills in the northern & western suburbs of Philadelphia. The first thump of snow is not surprising...probably a lil bit surprising at the Shore as temperatures have held cooler aloft a lil bit better than expected. However, freezing rain is reported at Dover at 4 AM...a sign that warmer air is trying to work in.

You can see on the above radar picture that precipitation cuts off to the southwest of Wilmington in Maryland. This dryslot will work east over the next few hours and cross Delaware and South Jersey, with precipitation tapering off to lighter snow, which will likely transition over to freezing drizzle and light sleet for those of you south of the city. The lighter precipitation will not be able to fight the effects of warming aloft...and we will see temperatures respond in kind both at the surface but also in the atmosphere as precipitation slackens off in a couple of hours south of the city. Those of you that are in the city and points north should hold onto snow for at least a little while longer. Latest higher resolution guidance is keeping the snow/no snow line generally along the river between Philly and South Jersey and then east along Route 70. The Airport might waffle around between snow and a wintry slop in a couple of hours' time, with the majority of the city staying snow...it's a very close call at this point!

Updated Projection For Saturday's Precipitation

2012-01-20T18:32:00.056-05:00

Saturday's storm has trended ever-so-milder in the computer guidance, particularly in the middle levels of the atmosphere. This storm is not an easy one to nail down on specifics because of the hint...and in the GFS and NAM it's a rather loud hint...of icy travel in parts of the region on Saturday morning. For those in South Jersey -- generally south of Route 70 and east of Route 295 -- going to be tough to get much in the way of snow outside of a coating to an inch on the front end. The transition to rain should be a relatively quick one...and probably will take place before daybreak in most of South Jersey. However, that transition to rain might be accompanied by a period of icy rain or sleet.

The storm is still positioned to start between 1 and 4 AM from west to east -- that really hasn't changed. Precipitation is moving through Ohio and will shoot into Pennsylvania later this evening, hitting Philadelphia after midnight.

First, the Euro...which is painting a snowier and less icy picture than rest of the models. The model is showing more snow because it is bringing more moisture, having it fall heavier, and is just a smidge colder at the surface and aloft. The result is a snowier solution for most of the region. Those generally above 295 and in Pennsylvania would pick up a few inches of snow -- generally on the order of 2-5", with some 3-6" totals across the Poconos and upper portions of the Lehigh Valley. Even the city, on the Euro side of the fence, stands to pick up 3" or so of snow. This is the best case scenario...not only for snow starved but also for those who aren't fans of sleet and freezing rain.

However, the GFS and the NAM have nudged themselves back into an icy direction for the region...especially for Philly on north/west. That transition to icy rain and sleet could begin in the city by 7 AM, nudging quickly north into the Pennsylvania suburbs shortly thereafter. The middle levels of atmosphere will moderate above freezing while the surface stays below freezing or right at the freezing mark. This will result in icy travel generally along and northwest of I-295 up into the outer Philadelphia suburbs to the north and west. Whether it falls as sleet or freezing rain is immaterial...it does look like a variety of slop will far during Saturday morning and the roads will likely be pretty slick for a time with the myriad of precipitation types that will fall.

The "good" news is that most precipitation will taper off by midday -- precipitation should taper to drizzle or light sleet or light rain by Noon from the city on west, with New Jersey seeing precipitation continue into the early afternoon before ending, generally in the form of rain south/east of 295.

In terms of snowfall totals -- the city is still poised for 1-3" of accumulation, with 2-5" generally north of the Pennsylvania Turnpike and Interstate 195. 3-7" of snow is in the cards for the Lehigh Valley and the northwestern half of Berks County. The red shaded zone that generally bisects most of the 2-5" zone and 1-3" zone from Philly on north/west into the outer burbs is the likely zone where icy travel is most likely. We could see a good bit of freezing rain and/or sleet in these regions, making travel less than ideal on Saturday morning. In the 3-7" zone, the best chances for 7" totals will be in the Poconos and Northwest Jersey -- not everyone will see that amount of zone but it's possible in isolated spots.

January 21st, 2012 Forecast

2012-01-20T14:37:00.000-05:00

Snow's on the way...along with a bunch of other precipitation types. It's not the world's biggest storm but it is winter and temperatures will be cold enough to support at least some snow early Saturday morning across most of the region. That snow will gradually transition to rain from south to north and gradually the city will see at least some rain or icy rain on Saturday as well. It does look more likely that frozen or freezing precipitation will hold serve to the north and west of the city -- rain does not look likely there on Saturday morning. We will have a more thorough post with forecast totals sometime between 6 and 7 PM.

Snow will start up between 1 and 4 AM, with that transition to rain taking place south and east of the city towards morning, and perhaps into the city around daybreak. Temperatures will bottom out in the 20's around midnight and gradually rise from the city on southeast towards morning.

That transition of snow to rain will reach Philadelphia just after daybreak, with a transition to icy rain into the Philadelphia burbs north/west later on in the morning hours, sleet mixed in for some locations farther north as well. Snowfall totals in the city look to be in the 1-3" camp for now, with more to the north/west. Most of the precipitation should wrap up around midday although rain will linger south and east of the city into the afternoon hours. Daytime highs will range from near freezing north/west to the lower 40's along the coast to our southeast.

This Evening: An update on the snow and wintry slop for tonight.

Dry Friday

2012-01-20T05:25:00.000-05:00

Flurries and light snow fell last night -- in the atmosphere locally and in the Poconos in reality. Dry air at the surface and in the lower atmosphere pretty much zapped the flizzard and clipper of any ability to bring snow to the surface outside of the highest of elevations. Last night's clipper is exiting stage right, bringing in dry air in the wake on northwest breezes for the day. Temperatures will be pretty similar to yesterday across the region -- mid 30's northwest, upper 30's city and southeast, with a 40-42 type reading possible along the coast for good measure.

Skies today will feature a mix of sun and clouds -- the most sun regionwide will be later on this morning through mid afternoon before clouds increase from the west with the storm system. Precipitation should start up after Midnight (generally in the 1-4 AM timeframe from west to east) so travel in the evening hours should be fine.

Tonight's event is still on track with no real significant changes -- this is a snow to slop event for the city and the immediate suburbs. The only nudge if you will is that modeling from last night has nudged this event into more of a "front end thump" of snow that ends as a period of drizzle/sleet/freezing drizzle for the outer Pennsylvania suburbs (Quakertown, Pottstown, Upper Chester County) and the Lehigh Valley. A changeover to rain remains an issue for New Jersey (at least an issue for the snow starved), with perhaps some freezing rain in the transition out of snow on the front end of the event. Our forecast numbers from last night look realistic -- if anything, we might nudge an extra inch of accumulation across the northern burbs and across the Lehigh Valley corridor, but the city is still on track for a general 1-3" event. Because of the myriad of precipitation types, the NWS has a Winter Weather Advisory for the immediate Philly metro, Southeast PA, and Berks County. Winter Storm Watches were nudged into the Lehigh Valley.

This isn't an epic storm by any stretch but it's our second legitimate winter event -- and first since October.

Projecting Saturday's Snow/Slop

2012-01-19T19:07:00.045-05:00

The upcoming snow, sleet, and freezing rain....oh, and rain event for the region is a rather difficult forecast to pin down, especially if you are in the city and the immediate suburbs. I think the farther north and west you are the easier this forecast is to pin down...and for the snow starved, the happier they will be.

Precipitation will move into the region overnight Friday into Saturday, likely in the 1-4 AM time frame. Initially starting as snow, precipitation will gradually change over to a myriad of precipitation types based on location, surface temperature, and more. Temperatures aloft will moderate above the freezing point in some locations and this moderation in temperatures should occur relatively early on especially from the PA Turnpike on south...when temperatures aloft rise above freezing a transition to icy rain or sleet may take place. The question is how quickly that moderation in temperature takes place at the surface. If surface temperatures remain below freezing we could see rain freeze on surfaces or have a bunch of sleet pinging around. Given that there will be some subfreezing air out there to deal with at the surface you're going to have some issues with icing in parts of the region.

The NAM computer model (above) shows the profile for 7 AM on Saturday. It paints snow in blue, sleet in yellow, freezing rain in red, and rain in green. We could see a two to three hour period of freezing rain or sleet in/around Philadelphia during Saturday morning before temperatures at the surface rise above 32. We could also see the Airport/South Philly in better shape than Northeast Philly or Mount Airy with regards to icing. You can see farther north that there's snow across most of the outer suburbs and into the Lehigh Valley and Poconos. The Pennsylvania suburbs will change over a bit more slowly to sleet/icy rain -- might take until 9 or 10 AM and it might be on the tail end of the event where that transition takes place. Precipitation looks to exit the region around Noon or slightly afterwards so the changeover north of the PA Turnpike likely results in a shorter period of icy rain. There's some variance in the computer models at this point -- today's run of the Euro computer model shows the least ice in this event and is a general snow/no snow event, with the GFS and NAM showing at least some parts of the region getting ice. The Euro has shown ice in prior runs, however.

South/east of I-295, you'll see the snow transition over to rain, with a shortened period of icy rain in between. You should be rain by 7 AM in most of South Jersey although temperatures won't be much above freezing in this event.

In terms of accumulations, we're looking at a general swath of 1-3" of snow for most of the city, with some sleet and rain mixed in at some point during the storm. Keep in mind that the best chances for 3" will be north...with the city probably more in line for an inch or two. North of the Turnpike in Pennsylvania and from Trenton on north in New Jersey we're anticipating 2-4" of snow that will mix with at least some sleet towards the tail end of the event. The highest snowfall totals will be on the order of 3-6" and will fall across the Poconos and north of Route 222 in Berks County and the Lehigh Valley. This is a first guestimate on snow and is subject to change...we'll take a look at information and continue to tweak as necessary over the next 24 hours. We'll have another crack at this tomorrow evening.

January 20th, 2012 Forecast

2012-01-19T14:14:00.001-05:00

A clipper front will cross Pennsylvania and New Jersey tonight, bringing flurries and snow showers for folks from Philadelphia on north. This system will exit in the predawn hours on Friday morning, with tomorrow shaping up as a nice day as we are in between storm systems. Saturday's system will bring a myriad of precipitation types to the region, with the best chances for more frozen than not over the Poconos. The big question...and one that may not be resolved until the system actually moves in...is how long frozen precipitation holds before nonfrozen precipitation takes over, especially in the Pennsylvania suburbs. We'll try to unlock that question later on today...

However, tonight's clipper may bring a coating of snow north of the city...best chances of that are in the upper portions of Bucks and Montco, the Lehigh Valley, and the Poconos. Flurries are possible most elsewhere, with perhaps a sprinkle instead of a flurry in Southern Delaware. Lows will range from the 20's north to around 30 city and south. Friday is going to be pretty nice as far as midwinter is concerned -- mostly sunny skies but a bit breezy at times. Temperatures will top out in the mid 30s northwest, upper 30's in the city, and around 40 south and east of Philadelphia. West breezes will range from 10-15 mph, perhaps gusting to 20 in spots.

Weekend Sneak Peek: Saturday's system moves in during the predawn hours and exits during the afternoon, bringing a mixed bag of snow that transitions over to sleet/icy rain in the burbs before ending perhaps as rain as far north as the Lehigh Tunnel and Blue Mountain. We'll talk more about accumulations later this evening. Sunday is shaping up as a variably cloudy day as we transition to a milder day on Monday with another storm system approaching. Clouds will linger around, especially in the afternoon on Sunday, with temperatures in the mid 40's.

A Flurry Of Flakes For Some Tonight

2012-01-19T04:12:00.000-05:00

Temperatures this morning are "typical" for mid January -- generally high teens and low 20's throughout the region outside of the Poconos -- which is where we should be on a morning in January. Skies are clear -- winds are modest in many places and breezes are pretty light in most spots. It's cold but it's also January so it should be cold...and it's going to be a typically cold day for January as well as high temperatures top out in the middle 30's north/west of the city and upper 30's in Philly on south. There might be a couple of low 40's in Delaware today but on the whole today's a fairly "average" midwinter's day.

A clipper system is moving east and will cross Pennsylvania and New Jersey this evening, with the possibility of some flakes of snow from the city on north. Accumulation chances look to be confined to the higher elevations in the Pennsylvania suburban counties (especially Upper Bucks), as well as from the Lehigh Valley on north...not that we're talking about much but there is a chance for a coating in those spots to our north and perhaps an inch of fluffy snow in the Poconos tonight. Not going to be a big deal but for the snow starved that have been living and dying by each trace of snow and each flizzard of flurries that crosses their yard, it's something. Skies will transition from sunny to mostly cloudy this afternoon, with the flurry chances after 9 PM tonight.

The Economics of a Warm Winter

2012-01-18T18:00:00.000-05:00

While winter lovers and snow lovers have probably come close to pulling their hair out over the mild winter of 2011-12 thus far, there are some substantial fringe benefits because of it.

An article published by the AP over the weekend, discusses the ramifications of the very mild winter thus far (with the Dec-Jan period likely ending up as the warmest on record for the US...with reliable records to 1950).

What people don't always recognize about longer-term locked patterns like this is that they can prove to be major money savers. For instance, with the mild temperatures, you've more than likely noticed a year-on-year decrease in total energy costs. In fact an average energy bill has dropped 3% from last winter. With a glut of natural gas available due to both lack of use and increased production, the price of natural gas closed yesterday at $2.49 per million BTUs...and has been dropping steadily this month, thanks in part to the warm winter.

The energy benefits are probably the most obvious, but you also don't think of other things referenced in the article, such as airlines not having to de-ice planes as much (though something tells me we won't be seeing that reflected in the price of airfare!). In addition, delays and cancellations should be vastly improved this winter due to less wintry storminess. The article references United Airlines seeing a drop in cancellations last month from 29,000 in 2010 to a mere 7,000 in December 2011! Along the same lines, road crews are using far less rock salt to help clear roads and overtime costs are down.

Now, of course, with all the benefits, there are also some drawbacks. While most of us as consumers have no issues with this, some businesses are hurting this year because cold and flu cases are down a bit, so those medicines aren't flying off the shelves. The lack of snow means a lack of snow shovel/snow blower sales, as well as some pain for landscaping companies that run side businesses doing snow removal. There's also been a lack of winter clothing sales, which of course now means we can get lots of winter merchandise at rock bottom prices. So this may not be a bad time to restock the closet for perhaps later this winter (a big maybe) or perhaps the next few winters...because we all know sustained cold and snow won't stay away forever!

January 19th, 2012 Forecast

2012-01-18T14:54:00.000-05:00

Tonight: Mostly clear and cold. Breezy in the evening with gusts to 25 mph out of the north. Lows will drop between 15 and 22 degrees. The sunset this evening is at 5:03 PM.

Thursday: Sun to clouds. There is a 30 percent chance of flurries overnight. High in the upper 30s. Northeast winds will shift from the south in the afternoon at 5 to 15 mph.

Friday: Chilled under a mix of sun and clouds. High in the upper 30s.

Saturday: Light rain or snow on and off. High around 40 degrees. The chance of precipitation is 90 percent.

Sunday: Leftover rain or snow. Otherwise, mostly cloudy. High near 40 degrees. The chance of precipitation is 40 percent.

Thursday Planner

7 AM 22 degrees, Cold & Bright

Noon 35 degrees, Sun to Clouds

3 PM high 38 degrees

5 PM 36 degrees, Flurries Possible Overnight

Sunrise 7:19 AM

Sunset 5:04 PM

Saturday's Snow Chances Aren't Great, But...

2012-01-18T09:15:00.001-05:00

...there's at least a chance that some snow will fall near the region on Saturday with the second of two upcoming systems.The first one is a weak clipper front that crosses the region on Thursday night and early Friday morning, which will result in flurries or a few snow showers for the region and might bring a coating of snow to folks north of the Pennsylvania Turnpike and I-195 in New Jersey. It's not a huge system by any stretch but merely a quick moving wave of energy.

The Saturday system has a little more pop to it and will work into what was initially a colder atmosphere. However, the low pressure system is poised to track near or just south of Philadelphia. With east winds coming in off the Atlantic we'll probably see the colder air aloft retreat as the storm moves in. However, precipitation will be moving in as the cold retreats...so we may start as some snow or sleet in the city on Saturday morning before precipitation nudges over quickly to rain, similar to what happened with this last system that moved through but with a bit more precipitation.

Farther north/west of Philadelphia, temperatures aloft will gradually become an issue for most everyone despite a likely start to the event as some snow or snow/sleet mixed. Temperatures will moderate above the ground, resulting in a transition of snow over to sleet and/or rain from south to north...with some accumulations of snow and/or sleet possible as one travels north of Philadelphia during the front portions of the event. The GFS shows the potential for some icy rain/sleet across the Pennsylvania suburban counties as temperatures at the surface would be below freezing even though temperatures aloft will be above freezing. Since we're three days out on this event, this forecast is far from set in stone...and I tend to think in the end the icy rain potential will be a bit higher farther north (Poconos, generally between I-78 and I-80) than where the GFS is setting up shop now. For what it's worth, the Euro computer model (above) is a bit milder than the GFS and doesn't have the icy rain chances locally as it confines them to the mountains in Central PA -- around here it's a snow to rain type event, with some minor accumulations of snow possible north of the PA Turnpike.

It doesn't mean that it's going to be sunshine and lollipops for weather on Saturday in Philadelphia or the suburban counties north/west -- the early portions of the event might be a bit slick as temperatures will start out near/below freezing but we should see conditions improve as the day wares on in most of the suburbs. The system's timing suggests a morning start and a finish during the early to mid afternoon from west to east.

It's too early to speculate on specific accumulation amounts but the best chances of seeing anything more than an inch will be generally north of a Trenton-Pottstown-Reading line. A few inches of snow are possible in the Poconos if the system stays slightly "colder" aloft but I fear even there some mixing of sleet and even rain can't be ruled out.

Stepping Down In Temperatures

2012-01-18T04:57:00.000-05:00

Temperatures early this morning (before most of us all got up) were in the middle 50's in Philadelphia. A cold front crossed the region just after Midnight and temperatures have begun to descend back into a wintry flavor. While it's still mild out this morning -- expect temperatures in the lower 40's by 7 AM -- it will be a colder day heading home than it will be heading into the office as gusty west and eventually northwest winds will draw colder air into the region.

Radar shows the cold front exiting the cost (off of the Delaware coastline) just before 5 AM, with a band of lake effect precipitation back across Central Pennsylvania. Thanks to the gusty winds in place across the region today, some rogue flurries and lake effect flakes could work into the hills to the city's north and west but lake effect precipitation will impact farther north/west.

Winds will be strong today -- gusts to 30 mph or higher, sustained to over 20 mph during the afternoon -- and that will help send temperatures down a bit through the day. We're figuring the city gets under 40 by midday and into the mid 30's by dinner time, with colder readings north/west of town and slightly milder readings south/east. It's hardly arctic or brutal in the scheme of things but the wind will make it feel like a "typical" January day.

Bill Read To Retire From National Hurricane Center

2012-01-17T18:29:00.000-05:00

Bill Read, the director of the National Hurricane Center, announced that he is retiring effective June 1st.

Read took over the position in 2008 after a staff revolt at the National Hurricane Center cost the former director, Bill Proenza, his job. Over the past four plus years, Read brought stability to the NHC over the past four years, which included two rather active seasons in 2010 and 2011.

“Bill has provided superb leadership at the National Hurricane Center as 63 tropical systems formed across the Atlantic basin, including two of the more active seasons on record,” said Jack Hayes, director of the National Weather Service to the Associated Press. “Bill’s departure leaves a noticeable void to fill.”

Read, from Delaware, joined the Navy in 1971. He joined the Navy's Hurricane Hunter program in the mid 70's before transitioning to the National Weather Service in 1977. Prior to leading the Hurricane Center, Read was the meteorologist-in-charge of the National Weather Service in Houston for fifteen years.

I had the opportunity to hear Bill Read talk in 2008 at the University of Delaware as part of a meeting for the local chapter of the American Meteorological Society. I was impressed with his ability to explain meteorology at a level that left you with a piece of knowledge without sending the information out at too technical of a level. His expertise and knowledge will carry him onto the next phase of his career down the line. I'm sure we'll see more of Read at some point in the summer of 2012.

As for his replacement, Dr. Jeff Masters at Wunderground has some speculation on who may replace him. Some of the names are well known amongst the hurricane followers out there, including Dr. Rick Knabb at The Weather Channel and also Dr. Chris Landsea, who has been involved with hurricane research for NOAA and the NHC for over fifteen years.

January 18th, 2012 Forecast

2012-01-17T15:52:00.021-05:00

Our mini moderation will depart as a cold front to our west crosses the region late this evening, setting us back to a return of colder temperatures. After today's 40's and 50's, expect a return to "typical" January chill along with some stiff breezes from the northwest as winter tries to set up another round of reality across the region.

The front should cross the region around Midnight tonight, with Wednesday's highs likely to occur around then. Our "highs" for Wednesday will probably be near 50 in the city, 40's northwest, low 50's southeast, with temperatures dropping back into the 30's for most locations by daybreak as winds pick up behind the front and shift to the northwest. There could be a few showers accompanying the front, perhaps even a rumble of thunder? Skies will become a mix of clouds and stars later tonight after the front crosses.

Wednesday's daytime weather will feature temperatures that will generally hang in the upper 30's in the city, perhaps grazing 40 degrees for a time. Temperatures will feel about ten degrees colder thanks to a stiff northwest wind that could gust above 30 mph. There could be a few flurries in the Poconos but odds of a widespread "flizzard" of rogue flakes across Eastern Pennsylvania is quite low.

There is a chance for some light rain and/or snow on Saturday -- we will continue to refine and tweak the forecast over the coming days as this shot of precipitation moves closer to the region. Our warmup that we mused about a few days ago is not quite as warm in latest computer model projections. However, we do have a very good shot of getting into at least the 50's next week...the question remains how warm we ultimately get...and as of now the odds of a 60+ high look a lot lower than they did 48 hours ago.

Reviewing A Roller Coaster January 2012

2012-01-17T09:20:00.000-05:00

Sunday marked the effective halfway point of winter 2011-2012...for snow lovers, you're probably happy with the news because the winter's been pretty awful from a snow standpoint and has been the warmest we've seen in five years. The first half of winter 2006-2007 featured an average temperature of 44.1 degrees...thankfully we're not quite that warm but an average of 41.3 through yesterday is the warmest in those last five years and one of the warmer first halves we have seen.

January 2011's been mild -- 3.9 degrees above average so far -- but the warmth that we have experienced so far with six days of 50 and above temperatures has been tempered by four days of highs of 35 or below so far this month. Yo-Yo January weather has been the theme and will likely continue to be the theme over the coming days.

In terms of rain, we picked up 1.12" of rain through Sunday, which is about a third of an inch below normal for the month. Snowfall is a bit more dire for the snow starved as we've only picked up 0.2" of snow on the month, putting us to a paltry total of 0.5" for the season so far...again, the least snowy since 2006-2007. In that winter, we did not even pick up our first measurable snow until January 19th. It could be...and has been...worse.

Off & On Rains Today

2012-01-17T03:36:00.000-05:00

Temperatures haven't moved much overnight -- we are a few degrees warmer in general across the region at this very early hour. Dew points, which were in the single digits in spots in the mid afternoon yesterday, have moderated quite a bit as precipitation has moistened up the atmosphere. The sleet from last evening, which was the result of evaporational cooling in the lower atmosphere thanks to those dry dew points, has transitioned over to a general rain and drizzle, with the last batches of the first round of rain moving off the coast at 3:30 AM.

More rain is off to the west as this storm system extends back to Iowa...all of it moving east-northeast. Thanks to a relatively fast movement, precipitation should zip through during the day and exit stage right late this afternoon and this evening. Most of the precipitation will be rather light...and at times it will be more drizzly than showery...but expect a damp day, especially from the city on north. Rainfall amounts on the whole should be modest -- generally a half inch for the total event from the city on north, less south.

Temperatures will vary quite a bit by location -- it could be in the mid and upper 50's later on today along the South Jersey coastline and in Sussex County in Delaware, with Philadelphia struggling to reach 50 this afternoon. 40's will be common north of the city, with temperatures struggling to reach 40 in the Poconos. The potential for slick travel this morning will limit itself to mainly higher elevations in Lehigh Valley, Berks, and the Poconos, gradually only to the highest elevations in the Poconos later on today. The milder temperatures moving in will hold through much of the evening before a cold front moves in later tonight, perhaps accompanied by a shower, but definitely accompanied by another return to winter for a few days.

Updating Tonight's Rain (& N/W Sleet/Ice)

2012-01-16T17:58:00.000-05:00

We don't think icy rain will be an issue tonight in the city itself although a few sleet pellets can't be ruled out in the hills on the northwestern fringe of the city itself. Radar up above as of 5:30 shows the precipitation working into Central Pennsylvania, with clouds increasing quickly across the Delaware Valley this evening. Showers will first reach into the Lehigh Valley after 8 PM, probably into the Philly area around 10 or 11 PM this evening. These showers could be mixed with sleet as they move in later on.

Temperatures are in the 30's across the region, with dew points in the teens locally. They do increase...albeit slowly as one moves to the west. This is important over the next few hours as precipitation moves in. Temperatures might nudge down a few degrees in response to the light rain moving in. In the colder locations like Quakertown, Perkasie, and Upper Montco above 422 the chance of some slick travel will increase...and will be higher as one works north into the Lehigh Valley and then into the Poconos later on.

Conditions will improve late tonight as temperatures moderate above freezing in the Lehigh Valley, with slick travel mitigated by temperatures rising into the middle 30's. Roads could remain slick into the morning hours in the Poconos, however, as colder air lingers there longest.

This isn't going to be a significant storm by any stretch -- rainfall totals should be modest and generally on the order of a half inch or less...however, with temperatures marginal at the surface there will be some localized slick travel in the outer suburbs and some sleet mixing in down into the suburbs closer to Philadelphia.

More: Current Weather Page

Seattle Sled

2012-01-16T16:31:00.007-05:00

Seattle is not accustomed to snow...and with its hills and terrain throughout the city driving in any snow makes for something that makes our snow events in Philadelphia look rather pedestrian in comparison. The video above is from yesterday and captures two inches of snow and how Seattlites slid around town, struggled to put chains on their tires, and spun their wheels while appreciating their first snow of note this winter season.

They're not done with it either as not one, but two winter storm watches are out for the Puget Sound for the next 48 hours. A strong cold core low aloft and some arctic air (yes, it's cold somewhere in North America) has been bringing colder than average weather to the Pacific Northwest the past couple of days, with snow showers that occasionally flare up in intensity as a pair of disturbances track around the upper trough.

Snowfall potentially could end up among the five largest in Seattle recorded history and their largest since November 1985. Accumulations from the next wave (tonight/tomorrow) could end up reaching six inches, with another half foot possible from the second wave on Wednesday.

January 17th, 2012 Forecast

2012-01-16T14:33:00.002-05:00

Tonight: Rain developing in the evening. It will mix with sleet and freezing rain in the northwest suburbs. Lows will drop into the lower to mid-30s in Philly, near 30 north and west, and mid to upper 30s south and east. South winds will shift from the southwest at 10 to 15 mph. The sunset this evening is at 5:01 PM.

Tuesday: Rain in the morning tapering to just showers in the afternoon. It will mix with sleet and freezing rain in the northwest suburbs early before temperatures rise above freezing. It will be breezy and milder in Philly and points south and east with highs in the lower and mid-50s. Highs will hold in the lower to mid-40s north and west. Winds will be out of the southwest at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. The chance of precipitation is 90 percent.

Wednesday: Colder sun and breezy with a 20 percent chance of a flurry. High near 40 degrees.

Thursday: Sun to clouds, chilled. There is a 30 percent chance of snow showers at night. High in the mid-30s.

Get ready for a major January thaw starting Sunday. We'll be near record high temperatures on Monday !

Tuesday Planner

7 AM 36 degrees, Rain

Noon 43 degrees, Showers

5 PM high 51 degrees, Breezy, Milder

Sunrise 7:20 AM

Sunset 5:02 PM

Transitioning To Clouds Later

2012-01-16T06:52:00.000-05:00

It's a cold and mainly clear start across the region as high pressure is in control of our skies this morning. Temperatures are in the teens nearly everywhere, except the Poconos where single digits reside. Our cold start will give way to a less cold day today as the aforementioned high moves east and southerly breezes kick in later on today. Those southerly winds will help push temperatures into the upper 30's for Philadelphia, with mid 30's in the Lehigh Valley and low 40's in South Jersey and Delaware. Compared to yesterday's 20's, it will feel less cold outside today and more like a typical mid January day.

The retreating high will also allow clouds to increase later on as a storm system in the Midwest pushes east. Clouds will increase this afternoon from the west. While we will remain dry through the daylight hours, precipitation chances will increase after 8 or 9 PM west of us, after 11 PM locally, and after Midnight east of the city as light rain moves into the region in advance of the storm system. Since temperatures over the Lehigh Valley, Berks County, Poconos, and perhaps Upper Bucks County will be marginal for slippery travel, winter weather advisories are out for those places for this evening into early Tuesday morning in case rain freezes on road surfaces. Some of the upper parts of Montco could be slick -- we're talking above Pottstown and towards Pennsburg -- but the best chances of rain freezing on anything will Lehigh Valley/Berks on north. Rain thankfully will be light but it doesn't take much to foul up the roads. We'll have more information as the day progresses.

Weather Rewind, January 8-14, 2012

2012-01-15T23:12:00.000-05:00

Temperatures last week were mild for the most part -- 6.6 degrees above average for the second week of January. Until Saturday, typical winter chill was fleeting around here despite a cooldown from near record temperatures in the first half of last weekend (63 a week ago yesterday in Philly). Temperatures exceeded 50 degrees on Wednesday (ahead of evening rains), on Thursday morning (before drizzle and fog effectively locked in over everyone but Delaware), and on Friday morning (ahead of the cold front that sliced temperatures back into the 30's). In some respect, these temperatures are very "typical" of early December around here...despite the calendar suggesting it's the "heart" of winter.

In terms of rainfall, the Wednesday night and early Thursday event brought the lion's share of rain to the region -- generally around an inch or so for most locations. Friday morning's front brought minor rainfall totals and some snowflakes on the end of the event that briefly covered some lawns to the north of Philadelphia.

Nationally, much of January has been quite mild -- the last fourteen days (through Friday) shows nearly everyone in the lower 48 except for Florida with above average temperatures, with the warmest temperatures to average generally in the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains...with temperatures there running ten or more degrees above average so far with a relative dearth of snowpack. No wonder winter has been rather fleeting...

Chance For Freezing Rain Poconos/Lehigh Valley Monday Night

2012-01-15T18:16:00.000-05:00

Today's chill of winter will linger for another day but gradually ease as we work into Monday night. Computer modeling is showing the potential for some light freezing rain and/or sleet for parts of the region for Monday night and early Tuesday morning as a storm system approaches from the west. Cold air will be on the slow retreat...and the threat of freezing rain and sleet for anyone north and west of Philly depends mainly on how quick the precipitation gets into the region. I don't foresee any freezing rain or sleet in the city itself but there's a chance for those of us north of the PA Turnpike and west of the Delaware River late Monday evening.

Using the NAM as an example, the highest risks for freezing rain and/or sleet will occur in the Poconos and Lehigh Valley north of I-78 as precipitation moves in around Midnight into the western suburbs on Monday night. If it moves in a bit faster (which we can't rule out), it's possible the sleet/freezing rain event could reach into the upper portions of Montco and Bucks...we're talking Pennsburg, Quakertown, Perkasie...a few rogue sleet pellets are possible down into the 422 corridor and the PA Turnpike but in general, the chance of icing diminishes south of I-78 and is highest in the Poconos.

Temperatures won't be the greatest though on Monday night -- generally in the mid 30's in the Philly burbs...with the cold couple of days we've experienced the local side streets could be a bit slick at the onset into Upper Bucks and Montco if precipitation arrives relatively quickly...but temperatures should slowly rise through the night and the threat of icy travel should retreat to the Poconos. The good news is that we're anticipating precipitation to be light at the onset so the threat of "ice storm" is not really in the picture.

This threat of quasi-wintry weather will not last though as temperatures moderate into Tuesday. Modeling suggests temperatures getting into at least the upper 40's on Tuesday in most locations, perhaps reaching 50 or higher south and east of Philadelphia. Rainfall from the next system should total about a half inch or so...not a huge soaking but enough to reinforce the damp soil.

Forecast for Monday, January 16, 2012

2012-01-15T16:30:00.000-05:00

I expect a sunny start on Monday, followed by increasing clouds, and the potential for rain with some areas having the chance for sleet and freezing rain north and west of the city. Tom will have more on this potential early in the evening on the site. It could be slippery early on Tuesday north and west of town.

Tuesday we will be mild with highs in the fifties after an early morning mess in the suburbs, Lehigh Valley, and Poconos. Wednesday will likely be windy, but the driest day of the week. Thursday Night into Friday Morning we will have a clipper that could dust or coat a few areas with snow.

By the end of the upcoming weekend, it could turn quite balmy and mild. This mild stretch will linger for the majority of the last half of January, with perhaps a cold spell developing at the very tail end of the month into the first week of February.

Frozen Sunday

2012-01-15T06:34:00.000-05:00

If it were 100 degrees out that frozen sundae would sound pretty good...alas, it's not and it probably wouldn't unless you can scarf down ice cream in January. Not my cup of tea...but I digress. Flurries and light snow coated through parts of the region last night with a reinforcing shot of Canadian chill as it slipped southeast through the region overnight. The Poconos picked up an inch or two of snow, some of us mere coatings of pellets and powder, but collectively we're going to have a chilled and breezy day on tap.

We're starting in the 20's this morning for the city on south, with teens to our north. With the wind, it feels about ten degrees colder out there (chills in the single digits up north, teens for now in Philly). There isn't going to be much recovery in the temperature in Philadelphia, with a projected high near 30 degrees. 20's will be common to our north, with near 30 south of the city. Winds will be on the order of 12-20 mph from the north and northwest, bringing wind chills in the teens this afternoon to the region. Skies on the whole today will feature a mix of sun and clouds, probably a bit more sunny than yesterday in the region.

Today will be the coldest of this four day cold shot, with moderation starting tomorrow, continuing in force on Tuesday before we slip back into the 30's on Wednesday.

Where Winter Really Set Up Shop

2012-01-14T18:09:00.000-05:00

Coastal towns in Alaska are arguably among the winners of the golden shovel this winter as they continue to rack up inches...or dare we say, feet of snow.

Matt Lanza alluded to all of the snow that fell in Valdez and Cordova in a post here a few days ago but if you haven't seen it in a visual standpoint, it makes Cordova look like Erie or Buffalo after an epic lake effect storm. Cordova, at one point earlier this week, had 57" of snow on the ground....and had picked up at least two ten inch snowfalls in the first part of the month and some of the snow piles in town exceeded twenty feet in height.

Keep in mind a town like this doesn't have those shopping mall "snow mountains" that we're accustomed to seeing so having consistent piles of snow in the twenty plus foot range means there's been a LOT of snow.

Valdez, which is up the coast and to the west of Cordova, has fared even "better" from a snow standpoint. Since January 1st, the town has had measurable snow every day but one through yesterday, has 78" of snow on the ground as of yesterday morning, and has picked up nearly 100" of snow in the month's first thirteen days. An average January in Valdez brings 67" of snow over 31 days.

Snow on steroids, if you will.

The root cause has been the position of a cold trough over Alaska this winter, which has kept them in the proverbial freezer as the polar vortex has been over them much of the cold season. This has set the storm track up so storms track just south of Cordova and Valdez, keeping them cold enough but also in the right position to bring a lot more snow than usual. Anchorage is on pace for its snowiest winter on record and is approaching 100" of snow for the winter so far, more than the 61" of snow they picked up last winter.

Alaska has been the one place in the United States where the pattern has locked and loaded for winter chill and snow...the rest of us as a byproduct of that are mild and relatively snowless so far this winter. In the wake of this current cold shot in the East, the potential for another round of storms to track through Alaska could set up shop in about ten days' time, just in time for us in the East to experience another January thaw.

Forecast for Sunday, January 15, 2012

2012-01-14T17:00:00.002-05:00

A secondary cold front will push more Arctic Air southward into Philadelphia tonight. This secondary front will be accompanied by snow flurries and isolated snow showers which could dust a few areas (a few tenths of snow). Mostly Cloudy skies will clear eventually toward daybreak. Despite the breezy conditions and increasing cloudiness, forecasted lows get down into the single digits at Mount Pocono to lower twenties in the city. Wind chill factors will be in the single digits and lower teens this evening, colder in the higher terrain.

Sunday looks to be influenced by high pressure in the area and thus I am forecasting mostly sunny skies. A stray flurry in the Poconos cannot be ruled out. It will be a bitterly cold day with breezy, northerly winds and temperatures struggling to make it into the thirties. Bundle up!

Monday starts off mostly clear, but clouds will overspread the region. By Monday Night, a warm front is on our doorstep. Model guidance continues to indicate a surge of warm air aloft, limiting the chance for snow for just about everywhere except the Poconos and perhaps higher terrain of the Lehigh Valley. This system is currently scheduled to arrive on the heels of daytime heating. Daytime heating may push temperatures above freezing at the surface for most places which eliminates the potential for freezing rain when it begins to precipitate; but this isn’t in stone and there is chance that despite the heating, it won’t push temperatures high enough. It also has to be considered that should this system be delayed some, some early evening breaks in the clouds could allow temperatures to fall back below freezing.

With this said, I believe there is an opportunity for a period of rain, mixed with sleet for a good portion of the area. North and West of Philadelphia, it may start out as mainly sleet and gradually transition to rain…and if the surface is below freezing in spots…there could be a period of freezing rain.

Model guidance will have a better handle of the placement of the high pressure area and the extent of the Arctic air across area after the frontal boundary moves through tonight. It is possible that later model runs may turn out colder at the surface and develop cold air damming…which would increase the chance for icing.

I am expecting high temperatures to push greater than 50 degrees along the coastal plain inside the warm sector on Tuesday. Rain may turn showery once the warm front moves northward. This front may hang up in the far northwestern counties and Mount Pocono may deal with freezing rain in the early morning and temperatures barely making it above freezing for several hours.

A cold front pushes through on Tuesday Evening and Night. Again, there could be some gusty winds ahead of it and a squall line of showers, heavy at times with embedded thunderstorms. It will turn windy on Wednesday with a possible snow flurry in the Poconos.

A weak little system may clip us Thursday Night into Friday Morning with a round of snow showers. It doesn’t appear this will be significant, but it may dust or coat the ground. The best chances of this happening are in the northern areas.

There have been some indications of a mild stretch developing in the long range. There have been times where temperatures have spiked to 70 degrees, followed by snowstorms, slizzards, and ice storms.

Chilled, Variably Cloudy, Maybe A Flurry Or Two

2012-01-14T07:31:00.000-05:00

We're back to winter although temperatures this morning are milder than average as clouds held in place for much of last night and prevented a dropoff in temperatures around the area. We're starting Saturday in the 20's in a number of locations, with just a couple of rogue 30 degree readings out there in the burbs. Combined with some breezes in excess of 10 mph, the wind chill is down in the teens for many this morning.

Highs today should top out in the middle 30's for most, upper 30's south of Philly, with the projected high going to 36 in Philadelphia this afternoon, under variably cloudy skies. Arguably more clouds on average city and north, some additional sun south of the city. With west breezes at 12-18 mph, chill factors will be in the 20's later on today. We won't be clouded for the entire day -- some sunshine will be out/about, especially this morning. A disturbance aloft in the atmosphere will help enhance the lake effect machine downwind of Lake Erie, spreading some light snow showers and flurries into Central and Northeastern Pennsylvania. A few flurries can't be ruled out into the Pennsylvania suburbs or Lehigh Valley later on today.

How Sustained Will Cold Shot Be

2012-01-13T19:08:00.001-05:00

Much was made ado about more sustained cold about a week ago and that this upcoming shove of winter would last a bit longer. Well, it will last a couple of days longer than the shot of winter we had about ten days ago but it won't last on the order of ten days like we discussed in our post last week. The next ten days will feature more of the yo-yo January weather that's been "the norm" this year, only this time featuring cold for three more days, warm for a day (as a storm system moves through and warms us up ahead of the front), and then cold for two to three more in the wake of the frontal boundary. The upcoming cold won't be anything that we're not used to...and very "typical" January weather as temperatures will hang in the 30's on the cold days, potentially warming into the 50's on the day(s) where the front is around next week.

Getting this cold pattern to sustain itself is potentially an impossible task, however. While there was a shift in the pattern in the Pacific, the lack of a sustained blocking pattern in the Atlantic will prevent any sort of sustained cold pattern from setting up for us on the East Coast. The longer range modeling is suggesting a milder look will begin to take hold after eight/nine days, with the week of January 22nd potentially quite mild for the Eastern US. The country sets up in a bit of a zonal/gradient pattern, with the Atlantic featuring a bit of a ridge of high pressure with the Pacific featuring a bit of a trough farther out. Given the broader nature of the trough/ridge relationship, it results in a cold setup in Alaska and Northwest Canada but returns much of the US to above average temperatures...with cold fronts sliding along on the border and putting a dent into the chill occasionally to our north.

The week of January 23rd might be one of the warmer to average weeks we've seen in a while. Not going to say it's quite the warmest week of winter but it's possible we get a full blown January "thaw". My tongue is firmly implanted in cheek when I say that given how little winter we've really had but if this look in the computer models from the GFS and Euro holds -- we could get a sustained period of at least 50 degree weather for the week after next...with 60's a distinct possibility and the chance it could approach 70 late in the month. We aren't saying it necessarily will hit 70 but that the possibility is there if everything breaks right.

The pendulum swings back in a warm direction after a week generally on the cold side.

For ultimate fun, I have the complete list of January 70 degree days (all 13). The list is a rare accomplishment to make but we have done this...but in 1906, 1932, and even 1950 I could imagine the snow starved's reaction to the utter lack of winter weather when the thermometer cracked 70 on multiple days within January. This winter, for us at least, is shaping up a bit like 2001-2002 or 2007-2008...occasional shots of cold sandwiched around those warm shots that last a lot longer. Whether that pattern persists into February remains to be seen but the latter portions of January, at least, are looking pretty warm at this point.

January 14th and 15th, 2012 Forecast

2012-01-13T15:00:00.000-05:00

Tonight: A mix of clouds and stars with seasonably cold temperatures. Lows will drop into the mid-20s. Winds will diminish a bit, but it will still be breezy with west winds at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. The sunset this evening is at 4:58 PM.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy, and chilled. High in the mid-30s. Winds will be out of the west-northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Sunday: Cold sun with less wind. High in the lower 30s. Winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Monday: A mix of sun and clouds. Not as chilled with a high near 40 degrees. There is a 60 percent chance of rain and/or snow showers overnight.

Saturday Planner

7 AM 26 degrees, Cold Start

Noon 33 degrees, Breezy

3 PM high 36 degrees

5 PM 34 degrees, Chilled

Sunrise 7:21 AM

Sunset 4:59 PM

Hey...Winter's Sorta Back!

2012-01-13T04:47:00.000-05:00

Winter's "grip" hasn't been much this winter but for a few days at least some sort of "typical" winter weather will return to the East Coast. That reality is being marked by a cold front marching east this morning, bringing a gusty line of showers along with it as it zips through. Radar and temperature overlay from the 4 AM hour are above, showing you the warmest part of the day around here as temperatures will slowly slip through the day from our near 50 degree readings in the pre-dawn hours. To give you an idea of the chill behind this front...it's 22 at 4 AM in Pittsburgh while it's 50 in Philly. By dinner tonight, we should be in the 30's locally, with wind chills in the 20's thanks to a gusty west wind at 20-30 mph that will drive wind chills in the lower half of the 20's, if not the upper teens up to our north.

Wind advisories are out for those gusty winds, which could reach 40-45 mph at times today.

In terms of precipitation, any lingering showers from the cold front should exit stage right by 7 AM locally but will linger around a bit longer to the north. As colder air filters in from the west and northwest, those showers could end as flurries or a period of snow showers in the Poconos and upper edges of the Lehigh Valley. Flurries are possible north/west of the city later on today thanks to residual lake effect snow bands but those should be nuisance in nature.

The Gradual Transition In Weather At 1060

2012-01-12T19:15:00.026-05:00

For four decades, KYW 1060 has been known for "Traffic and Transit on the Two's" and for Accuweather forecasts featuring Elliot Abrams, Bob Larson, Joe Lundberg, and countless other meteorologists. That long-standing synergy and branding has been a major cog in the success of the all news outlet as it has grown, while also helping Accuweather's brand grow into the weather forecasting organization that it is today.

Bob Dylan surmised in the 1960's that the times they are a changin'...that phrase is still somewhat true to this day...this time in a different sense.

Recently, 1060 has branded more extensively with its parent company (CBS), utilizing CBS 3's forecasting team outside of the morning drive. While you still hear Elliot Abrams with Accuweather, you now hear Kate Bilo, Kathy Orr, and the rest of the CBS 3 forecasters throughout the duration of the day, night, and weekend. Synergy is the theme at play here...first was the phasing of all of the CBS media properties in Philadelphia under the cbsphilly.com umbrella, which would also include WOGL-FM, WPHT, and WIP-FM...now comes the brand synergy between CBS 3 and KYW.

To be honest, this isn't a completely new piece of the puzzle for 1060. CBS 3 has occasionally slipped in weather forecasts for a few years now during the 3:30 PM Reporters Roundup show and has occasionally provided forecasts here and there at other points through the afternoon drive. The usage of CBS 3's weather team hasn't been to this extent, however.

The deal with Accuweather wasn't cheap, likely in the six figures if Tony Wood at the Inquirer is right. If CBS in Philadelphia can save a buck or two while utilizing their own forecasters, it makes sense and cents to do so. To be honest, outside of Elliot, Dr. Joe Sobol, and Bob Larson handling forecasts during the day, the weekend and late night forecasters were becoming a revolving door of different meteorologists who didn't have the same name recognition nor last on the station as long or as frequently as the three that were mentioned. While Accuweather's radio forecasting group is one of the biggest positives of the organization, the general lack of "names" doing the weather during the weekend isn't a strong point for them. This is where CBS 3's incorporation makes total sense in my opinion.

Does that mean Elliot Abrams will soon no longer be on air here? Probably not. Elliot has been forecasting on 1060 for nearly forty years and has tremendous name recognition and a very, very good reputation in the Philadelphia market. In my nearly eleven years here, I've never heard anyone in the professional or passing on the street realm say a bad word about him. He's also a Philly native...that's a big plus in forecasting weather in this part of the world. It's likely that as long as Elliot is working for Accuweather, he will likely have a place at 1060.

January 13th, 2012 Forecast

2012-01-12T15:17:00.020-05:00

Our yo-yo weather going to take another loop on the temperature roller coaster tomorrow thanks to a cold front that's working in from the west late tonight. Temperatures will likely stay relatively mild for much of the night but by this time tomorrow we'll be looking at a much more typical January day in the Delaware Valley with a chilled wind and....dare we say it...wind chills in the 20's and upper teens.

That front passes through the region between 3 and 6 AM from west to east with a shot of gusty showers accompanying the front. I doubt there will be anything of significance with the band of rain other than winds picking up from the west and gusting at times to 30 mph late, late tonight. Temperatures will drop to around 40 by daybreak in the city, 30's to the west, while still sorta mild in the lower/mid 40's east of Philly.

Winds will gust to over 30 mph on Friday, blowing colder air into the region through the day. Temperatures will drop tomorrow bit by bit as the push of winter returns into the region. Temperatures will be in the lower and mid 30's for much of the day, especially along and northwest of I-95, with wind chills several degrees cooler. Any rain showers accompanying the front will end by 8 or 9 AM, possibly as a quick shot of snow up to the north and west of Reading and Allentown.

Weekend Sneak Peek: Temperatures will be in the 30's for the weekend, not unseasonably cold, but colder than average. Saturday will feature a breeze that will add chill to the air, with a reinforcing shot of chill moving through Saturday night with a weak upper level disturbance passing through. Sunday looks like the coldest of the upcoming stretch as highs may only reach the low 30's in the city.

Rain Ends Soon, Mild Weather Ends After Today

2012-01-12T06:03:00.000-05:00

Mild weather is with us today...the rains will thankfully not be with us much longer. Radar from early this morning shows rainfall moving north through the Philadelphia area as low pressure moves along I-95. Rainfall will taper off over by 9 AM or so across the region as this system continues to scoot along. Rainfall totals should average out to around an inch or just above that, which won't cause widespread or significant flooding issues and is our first significant rainfall in about three weeks around here.

Once the rain ends, skies will brighten later on and sunshine (with some clouds mixed in) will take over from midday on. It will be breezy at times with west and southwest breezes at 12-18 mph later on.

Temperatures are starting in the 50's from Philadelphia on south, with 40's to the north. We'll warm up into the upper 50's for many locations today, with low 60's not out of the question in some locations to the south of the city. The only "cool" spot will probably be the Poconos and Lehigh Valley where temperatures will climb to the 40's (Poconos) and lower 50's (Lehigh Valley) this afternoon. This is the last of the real warm days for a stretch as a pretty decent cold front will push through late tonight and early tomorrow morning, bringing a round of showers to the region that may end as snow from I-78 on north. Temperatures will take a hit tomorrow in response to the front passing through, with a seasonably cold weekend on tap.

More on the Quirky Snow Season of 2011-12

2012-01-11T18:00:00.000-05:00

In a winter this quiet, it's been a struggle to come up with ideas about what to discuss. I could talk about brief cold snaps, debates over pattern changes, modeled snow events that may or may not happen (not that there have been many), among other topics. We could discuss how weather impacts voter turnout, but that's a topic for another time. I'm a numbers kind of guy...I like interesting, quirky stats about weather. Sometimes I think that's even more interesting than forecasting! So with that, let's talk about some quirky snow statistics.

The Upstate New York Snow Drought

While it may not be technically a drought, Upstate NY is one of the snowiest places in the country, with Syracuse ranking as the snowiest major city in the country by most metrics. That said, this year has featured quite a departure in the snow department thus far there. Some stats...

Syracuse, NY: 12.9", Normal: 53.1" (-40.2")
Buffalo, NY: 5.5", Normal: 45.3" (-39.8")
Rochester, NY: 7.3", Normal: 38.1" (-30.8")

The least snowy winter in Syracuse since 1950 was the winter of 2001-02, when they saw a putrid 59.1". Syracuse's snow totals can often be considered somewhat inflated compared to the majority of the metro area, as Hancock International Airport is several miles north of the city, in the northern suburbs, closer to the lake effect snow belt. All of these cities should at least add to their snow totals in the coming days, though it may be hit or miss in spots. The NAM forecast of snow from this morning is posted on the left below, and you can see at least a few inches are likely in NY and New England, though most should fall south of Buffalo and northeast of Syracuse (also note finally a fair amount of snow for places like Milwaukee and Chicago).

Credit: http://wxcaster.com

From the "Did You Know?" department: The cities of Upstate New York vie annually for the (perhaps, not so) coveted Golden Snowball Award! The battle is waged each winter between Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, Binghamton, and Albany. The winner is that city which records the most snowfall during the winter season. Syracuse has won the award over 50 times since the 1940s! The official stats are located here, including some details on disputed championships, especially by Buffalo, in the 1940s. Buffalo, however, holds the title of most snow in a season with just shy of 200" back in the epic winter of 1976-77. It's a fun game to play during winter, and having lived in Upstate NY, I can tell you, it's not always an award you want.

Midland, TX Snow

If the Golden Snowball were expanded to include the Lone Star State, at this point, it would be given to Midland, TX. For real? Yep. Midland, in Western Texas, an area plagued by drought last year, recorded 10.6" of snow yesterday, a daily record, and their seasonal snowfall total now stands at 19.5", which is an all-time record. This outpaces not only Upstate NY, but also Minneapolis (10.3"), Duluth (12"), Chicago (1.9"), and Burlington, VT (15.1").

Western US Drought

Source: High Plains Regional Climate Center

West-wide, we've seen a drought of snow this winter. In general, precipitation has been running behind overall as well. In California, the Sierra sits at about 14% of normal snowfall for the season. On the left, you can see the map of percent of normal precipitation over the last two months. What you'll notice is that there's a lot of red, orange, yellow, and brown. Essentially no one in the West, with the possible exception of New Mexico, has seen anywhere near normal snowfall or rain this winter. The best ski conditions in the country can in fact be found in New Mexico. Places like Colorado and California have struggled, though snowmaking is helping to at least lighten the blow some. Interestingly, if you go just north of the US/Canada border, they've had a great winter in parts of British Columbia.

Alaska Snow

With all this said about wimpy snow and snow in strange places, you had to figure Alaska had something interesting to offer too. Well, they do. And in fact, if you wanted consistent winter this year, Alaska is the place to be. Here are some numbers....

Anchorage: 81.4", Normal: 42.0" (+39.4")
Juneau: 72.7", Normal: 37.2" (+35.5")
Barrow: 57.1", Normal: 24.7" (+32.4")

And last but not least....

Valdez: 303.4", Normal: 147.6" (+155.8"!)

That last number is astounding on almost every possible level. Alaska has been hit harder than anyone in the US this winter. Issues getting needed supplies to rural parts of the state are piling up as quickly as the snow.

Here's an NPR report on Cordova, AK and its issues.
More details from Anchorage's News Tribune

All in all, the Winter of 2011-12 is going to go down, if not for anything, for the snow in Alaska and the unbelievably paltry amount of snow received in other typically snowy areas during (at least) the first half of winter.

January 12th, 2012 Forecast

2012-01-11T17:07:00.000-05:00

Tonight: Rain, heavy at times. Breezy with lows in the lower 40s. Temperatures could rise a bit overnight. Winds will be out of the east at 10 to 20 mph. The chance of rain is 100 percent.

Thursday: There is a 40 percent chance of rain early in the morning. Otherwise, look for clouds and a few breaks of sun. High around 60 degrees. There will be a mild breeze out of the southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Friday: A mix of clouds and sun with a cold wind. High near 40 degrees. Winds will gust to 45 mph.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, not as windy. High in the upper 30s.

Thursday Planner

7 AM 47 degrees, Leftover Rain

Noon 55 degrees, Plenty of Clouds

3 PM high 60 degrees

5 PM 58 degrees, Mild Breeze

Sunrise 7:22 AM

Sunset 4:57 PM

Sunny Start, Soaking Finish Tonight

2012-01-11T04:32:00.000-05:00

Rains on the way tonight -- at least an inch of rain can be expected for many locations as a southern soaker comes barreling through the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Rains are, as of early this morning, extending from Southern Indiana down into Southwestern Virginia, with the center of low pressure in Alabama. This system will move northeast through the day today and its shield of clouds will move overhead towards midday, with rain moving towards the Philadelphia area later this afternoon.

Rain should move into the city after 4 or 5 PM, steady to heavy later tonight before tapering off towards the morning commute. It may start as a period of sleet or snow in the Poconos this evening before temperatures aloft and in the lower atmosphere moderate just enough to allow transition to rain for them. Winter weather advisories are out for Carbon and Monroe Counties to our north for this evening with the storm system bringing an inch or so of slushy accumulation before that changeover takes place.

Temperatures are starting in the 20's for the vast majority of the surrounding area, with the city clinging to low 30's this morning under clear skies to start. We should reach a high of 48 this afternoon under increasing clouds, with the vast majority of the daylight hours dry and fair. East breezes will increase towards dinner to around 10-15 mph, increasing more tonight (12-20 mph in the city, 15-25 at the Shore plus higher gusts). In a nutshell, today starts chilled but decent and descends into a rainy night as the southern storm moves on in later on.

A Soaking For Most Tomorrow Night

2012-01-10T18:06:00.000-05:00

Another round of rain from another southern system forthcoming tomorrow night. This storm system will bring rain to the vast majority of the Delaware Valley. However, farther north could see a period of icy rain, sleet, or snow at the onset of the storm and for at least a portion. Most computer guidance except the GFS model shows at least some frozen/freezing precipitation in the Poconos and the higher elevations of the Lehigh Valley tomorrow evening. Precipitation moves into the Philadelphia region around 4 PM, with the Lehigh Valley in on the event around 6 PM or so. The icy rain or sleet/snow combo should transition over to rain for everyone in the Poconos but the higher elevations up there might get a couple of inches of snow or some icy surfaces for a time before temperatures moderate above freezing aloft and at the surface.

For us here in Philly, rain will be steady to heavy at times from about 7 or 8 PM through Midnight and until 3 or 4 AM before tapering to showers before the morning commute on Thursday. Rainfall could be heavy enough to cause some minor streams and the usual suspect streams to flood or approach the top of their banks later tomorrow night. We've been pretty lucky as it's been relatively dry the last month outside of a couple of larger rainfall events so the region can handle a decent rainfall without much difficulty. However, because of the amount of rain expected in a short timeframe there is some potential for minor flooding in spots.

Rainfall totals should exceed an inch in most spots, with the potential for a couple of inches in the heaviest locations (NAM suggests that, with the other models solidly in the one to one and a half inch department).

After this, we will transition to colder weather late Thursday night with a second cold front coming in from the west. That front will bring more showers to the region, which may end as a shot of snow to the north/west of Philadelphia on Friday morning. Accumulations would be minor if that changeover to snow does occur...and probably most likely on the highest hills and in the Poconos.

January 11th, 2012 Forecast

2012-01-10T15:24:00.000-05:00

Today's nice weather is a fleeting reminder of the winter we haven't had. A taste of winter chill is coming in starting on Friday, with a couple of less-than-stellar days forthcoming to mark its transition. While most of Wednesday will be decent, rain moves in towards dinner tomorrow and overspreads the region through the evening hours. Some of that rain may start in the form of snow or sleet in the Poconos and higher elevations of the Lehigh Valley, with the potential for a few inches of snow in the Poconos Wednesday night as temperatures should hold near or just below freezing during the event. Locally though, it's gon' rain...

Tonight's weather will be mostly clear but not terribly cold. Low temperatures will be in the 20's in the colder burbs outside of the city, lower 30's along the Shore and in the city. We'll start with mostly clear skies on Wednesday morning but clouds will increase from southwest to northeast through the day as the storm system approaches. Rain should move into Delaware and Maryland during the afternoon, into the city by dinner time. Temperatures tomorrow will range from the lower 40's in the upper Lehigh Valley to the upper 40's south of the city. Winds will nudge around to the east at around 10 mph in the afternoon hours.

We will have an update on the rain for Wednesday night (and Pocono snow chances) later on this evening!

Mainly Sunny, A Bit Breezy

2012-01-10T05:07:00.000-05:00

Last night's coating of snow for Extreme South Jersey and Southern Delaware is almost a distant memory -- a few slick spots reside down there from last night's coatings of snow, with some lingering clouds still around in the predawn hours south and east of the city. Locally in Philadelphia and points north/west, skies are pretty clear and we're snowless since the precipitation from last night scooted to our south.

Temperatures are starting out in the 30's for many, with some upper 20's farther to our north. The relatively decent temperature start will result in a relatively decent day for all -- temperatures will get into the upper 40's for most places, with a couple of 50-51 degree readings thrown in for good measure. Philly's projected high today will be 48. Breezes will be a bit of a factor today -- generally west-northwest at 10-16 mph, enough to add a bite to the air if you're not in the sun. However, with mainly sunny skies the rule today the wind won't be much of a negative factor today...just a nuisance.

Weather Rewind, January 1-7, 2012

2012-01-09T20:00:00.000-05:00

Temperatures last week averaged out 3.7 degrees above normal...you can thank Friday and Saturday for the vast majority of that as we exceeded 55 degrees both days and almost set a record with 63 on Saturday. Through Wednesday, temperatures had averaged out exactly normal as the cold shot of Tuesday and Wednesday balanced out the mild Sunday and early Monday the region experienced.

We did pick up a couple of tenths of an inch of snow on Wednesday evening in Philly with a weak disturbance that pushed through the region, and also received some flurries and morning snow showers on Tuesday as a reinforcing shot of cold air pushed into the region from Canada on the heels of Monday's gradual cooldown.

The lack of precipitation last week has helped to dry us out a bit -- rainfall totals the past month are running relatively close to average in many locations. We've picked up just a touch over two inches of rain the past 30 days since our two inch rainfall on December 7th in the city brought some minor flooding with it. The region's soils are starting to dry out a bit and some of the streams are starting to slow in their volumes...although a heavy rain later this week may 'fix' that problem.

Light Snow & Rain Next Few Hours South

2012-01-09T17:34:00.000-05:00

Radar is showing an area of light snow (and some mixed rain) moving back into Delaware from the west. Washington has picked up some coating to an inch type accumulations with this batch of precipitation and similar type totals can't be ruled out this evening for those south of a Smyrna-Millville-Egg Harbor line. Precipitation should fall mostly in the form of snow, especially in the heavier/steadier bands this evening as it works east.

Temperatures are in the mid 30's in Dover and Millville -- it won't take much for snow to fall given that atmospheric conditions but odds favor most of the accumulations on lawns and car tops. Some slush can't be ruled out on the roads...enough to possibly gunk things up out there later tonight as this moves through. Precipitation should end around 10 or 11 PM in Delaware, possibly lingering to Midnight along the Jersey Shore.

More: Current Weather Page

January 10th, 2012 Forecast

2012-01-09T16:19:00.000-05:00

The weak southern system that is spreading some showers of rain and snow across the Mid Atlantic will scoot away tonight, with sunny skies returning for all on Tuesday. Those of you north of the Turnpike were wondering about "what southern system" since the sun was out for much of the day in the burbs as well as in the city from time to time.

The nice weather won't last unfortunately as a storm system moves in late Wednesday, continuing into Thursday with a period of rain that could be heavy at times late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. That storm system will then usher in a colder pattern for the end of this coming week and the weekend, with a persistent round of chill ahead.

Tonight: Precipitation is possible until about 10 or 11 PM for those generally south of Philadelphia. It wouldn't surprise if a coating of snow accumulated across parts of New Castle County into the Pinelands after sunset but anything of substance is highly unlikely. Clouds linger around for much of the night, with clearing expected towards morning. Lows in the 20's in the coldest spots, low 30's in the city with light winds.

Tuesday: Skies will quickly go mostly sunny during the day and it's shaping up as a nice January day. Highs get to upper 40's north of Philly, around 50 in the city, low 50's south. West breezes at 10 mph could occasionally nudge higher but with sunshine it won't feel too chilled out.

We'll update more on the Wednesday night storm tomorrow but the cliffs' notes version is generally a rain event with the potential for over an inch of rain for much of the Delaware Valley. Temperatures will moderate Wednesday night as the storm moves into the region, with mid 50's possible Thursday morning as a steady if not heavy rain falls.

Passing Of Herb Clarke

2012-01-09T04:36:00.003-05:00

Herb Clarke, retired Channel 10 weatherman, passed away on Sunday from complications from Alzheimer's Disease.

Clarke was 84.

Clarke, known also in his post-retirement years for his gardening segments on KYW 1060, was employed at Channel 10 for nearly four decades before retiring at the end of 1997. He also was a radio and television announcer in a number of stops before moving to Philadelphia, including helping to start up a television station in Richmond, VA.

Clarke is most known for being a weather forecaster here in Philadelphia but he also anchored the Sunday evening news during the 1960's and 1970's, as well as covered health and science.

Clarke won an award from the Associated Press for his coverage of Hurricane Agnes in 1972.

Below is a video found on YouTube of Clarke's last on-air forecasts on NBC 10, including most of a tribute video of his time on air. The video is from December 31, 1997.

More information on Clarke's life is available on the Broadcast Pioneers of Philadelphia website.

Gray Monday, Chance of Rain/Snow Showers South

2012-01-09T04:08:00.000-05:00

A vail of overcast is in place in much of the region this morning as a weak storm system tracks to our south through the Carolinas. The closest precipitation to us is in West Virginia this morning, with other showers across North Carolina, all generally moving east. Overhead, some moisture is trying to squeeze out of the clouds but nothing is reaching the ground locally as the bottom atmosphere is pretty dry and dynamics above the ground aren't the greatest. Today's generally going to be gray for much of the daylight hours, with a few breaks in the clouds from time to time...those breaks will be most common this morning.

The area of precipitation in West Virginia as well as back in Kentucky will track east into the DC area later on today, gradually working towards Delaware and South Jersey for this afternoon and early evening. The first batch (in WV) may result in sprinkles or flakes falling south of the city after midday today, with the Kentucky batch crossing through after 5 PM with a steadier round of showers or light snow mixed in. Model guidance generally suggests most of the precipitation stays south of a Wilmington-Long Beach Island line today and that much of it will be light. If precipitation is a bit steadier across Delaware and South Jersey, a coating of snow to perhaps an inch may fall this evening if everything breaks right. Don't count on much falling and sticking and it's just as possible given the light nature of precipitation on the radar this morning that this event is more liquid than frozen for the coast.

In terms of temperatures, everyone tops out in the lower 40's today. Philly and the burbs should get to about 43, with everyone else just notching above 40 for a time just after midday. Winds will be light but with the general lack of sun through much of the day it won't exactly feel too warm out today.

Coating of Snow Or Simply Light Rain Possible Tomorrow Evening?

2012-01-08T20:29:00.030-05:00

A weak low pressure center will work off of the Carolinas tomorrow evening, spreading some light precipitation northward into the Mid Atlantic after about 4 or 5 PM. There's some question about how far north that precipitation spreads but a period of light rain and/or snow will move into South Jersey and Delaware at minimum...the question is how far north that system gets. The European computer model has been the most aggressive in bringing precipitation into Philly and even into the northern suburbs as the low pressure center depiction on it is a bit stronger than the other models. If the Euro depiction is right light snow will coat into the Philadelphia metro, with a coating to an inch accumulating across South Jersey and Delaware away from the Shore.

The NAM has been inching farther north and brings some precipitation into Delaware and South Jersey. It along with the GFS generally keep measurable precipitation out of Philadelphia as of late this afternoon. The NAM suggests that the vast majority of the precipitation that falls will be light rain. The NAM is also the weaker of the three various models with this system and results in a slightly milder outcome for the storm.

Right now, the potential for a coating to an inch or snow falling in/around interior South Jersey and Delaware (generally Kent & New Castle Counties) seems like a reasonable call. We could see a coating into Philadelphia if we get a slightly more robust solution and everything breaks right for us. In terms of timing, precipitation is possible after 4 or 5 PM spreading in from the south, with the "best" chance of anything moving through Philadelphia during Monday evening...just after rush hour.

This isn't a big storm by any stretch -- it's a minor system -- but it could drop a coating or an inch in spots. We'll keep an eye on it through tomorrow.

Forecast for Monday, January 9, 2012

2012-01-08T18:23:00.006-05:00

On Monday Evening, a wave of energy will slide to the south of our region. The computer model guidance has trended northward over the past few runs with the system and now bring measurable precipitation into the southern half of our forecast area. The 12z European model brings measurable snow into a good part of Southern New Jersey and Delaware. The GFS from 12z and 18z brush the area with a period of snow. The NAM from 12z and 18z is further south and holds the precipitation into the Delmarva. The EURO did quite well with the clipping of snow we received this past week. In addition, we tend to see a northward inching with these southern sliders as the event approaches on our model guidance. This is going to have to be watched carefully. Now we are not talking about a moisture loaded system, but the potential is there for a coating to an inch of snow in some areas Monday Evening and Monday Night.

We also have to consider possible sleet and or rain mixing in, especially close to the coast and in Southern Delaware. Temperatures will probably drop as precipitation begins due to evaporative cooling; assuming it does precipitate and we will also lose a few degrees with darkness settling in. It may take sometime for the column to moisten up, especially with high pressure trying to hold firm. We will have snowfall forecasts and updates, if needed, in the future. We will include a chance of snow for southern areas Monday P.M.

The big event this week will be a roughly 996 MB low pressure area and associated fronts approaching on Wednesday, perhaps lingering into early Thursday. We expect rain to expand into our area Wednesday with the heaviest rain Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Night. It will turn windy in the region, with the strongest gusts in open fields and along the coastal communities. Mild air will come in, especially south and east of Philadelphia. Philadelphia may observe a late day high on Wednesday and an early high on Thursday of around 56 degrees. There is also some indication that as the low swings through with an accompanying cold front…some low-topped thunderstorms may develop. There could be a period of strong gusts of wind with this line. It will become windy and cooler on Thursday in the wake of this intensifying low pressure area.

A secondary cold front could approach late Thursday into Friday, bringing a chance of snow and rain showers. I wouldn’t be surprised to see spotty coatings with this event as well. Lake Effect snow showers may also impact us on Friday.

I will also include a chance for snow showers on Sunday.

Stepping Back Towards The Norm

2012-01-08T07:19:00.000-05:00

After yesterday's toasty high of 63 degrees a weak cool front has slipped on through the region and will bring a sense of normalcy to the weather for the next few days. While temperatures will still be mild compared to the average high of 40 for this time of the year, records aren't likely as the ridge of high pressure that perked up in the Midwest and West has fully been squashed with a more "zonal" pattern for a couple of days.

All in all, today's a nice day as far as January is concerned...just a good bit cooler. Expect a mix of sun and clouds and temperatures that will top out in the middle and upper 40's for most, near 50 or so in South Jersey and Delaware. West to northwest breezes will average around 10 mph, occasionally nudging in gusts to 20 mph. The breeze will add a touch of chill to the atmosphere but it's hardly a brutal day on tap by any stretch as we will get a decent amount of sun at times through the day.

Santorum's Stormy Weather Past

2012-01-07T21:09:00.021-05:00

If you're a weather geek, you might remember way back in 2005 when then Senator Rick Santorum proposed legislation to curtail general public forecasts from the National Weather Service (likely to benefit a certain private forecasting outlet located within Pennsylvania)...or his criticism of the NWS' handling of Hurricane Katrina (when in fact the Weather Service and National Hurricane Center were lauded for their efforts to warn). The proposed bill actually would have counteracted a prior Bush administration policy change that allowed the Weather Service more leeway in releasing information and products over the internet. So much for following the party line...I guess money talks in politics in the end.

Not that I think Santorum has much of a chance of winning the Republican nomination...nor does Intrade and others who "predict" such things and personally I think the Devil will have a snowball fight in Hell before Santorum gets elected President...but this chicken is coming back home to roost.

Through various punditry outlets and through others in the online realm, the long-since shelved attempt to mute the National Weather Service is gaining new light in response to Santorum's result in the Iowa caucus earlier this week. The Politico article goes into a rehash of the bill and muses whether there's a chance this bill could be resurrected and actually pass through Congress and become law regardless of whether Santorum were to be elected President or not. I tend to agree with Dr. Masters' opinion in the article that a proposal may creep back into Congress at some point given the general discourse in Washington over austerity and the possibility of some axe wielding to the budget taking place in the coming years. While I don't think such a proposal along the lines of Santorum's actually makes it through, there may be some changes to the structure of the National Weather Service in the coming years if the budget axe indeed gets sharpened up...just thankfully not a full blown muting.

Forecast for January 8, 2012

2012-01-07T16:45:00.000-05:00

Record warmth intruded a good portion of our region this afternoon. A cold front will pass through tonight. Current guidance indicates a dry frontal passage. However, given the unseasonable warmth ahead of the front and higher than anticipated temperatures, I feel a few isolated rain showers could potentially develop. We will include a slight chance of a sprinkle or shower, with most observing increased cloud cover.

It will be more like winter reality on Sunday with high temperatures in the mid and upper forties. It still is above normal for January. Daytime hours should be mostly sunny. We will see an increase in cloudiness on Sunday Evening and Sunday Night.

I have been a bit worried about a southern piece of energy on Monday into Monday Evening. The majority of our model guidance suppresses it to the south. However, a northward trend may develop very close to the actual event taking place, and some of southern areas may get clipped with a shot of precipitation, which may even be a wintry mix. Lows on Monday Night are around the freezing mark, even considering quite a bit of cloud cover. For now, I will include a slight chance during this time frame as well. Earlier this week, one run of the GFS had indicated a swath of precipitation coming pretty far north. But in the last 36 hours, all runs of the GFS keep the precipitation south of Delaware.

The biggest and most noteworthy storm for the forecast period arrives Wednesday and lingers into Thursday Morning. A potent low pressure area will track west of the region. This is typical of a La Nina pattern. This will flood us with moist air and warm air, making the precipitation liquid rain. Temperatures could even approach 55 to 60 degrees from the city and points south as the warm sector takes over. Once again, a cold front will approach as the low swings away and this could be associated with a narrow line of low-topped thunderstorms with little lightning…but decent wind gusts of 45 to 50 MPH. It also looks like this may end up being a windy period for the typical wind prone areas.

Colder air arrives in the wake of this departing low pressure area. It will then be worth watching a system moving up from the south late Friday into Saturday. Colder air will be in place as the system makes a close approach to the Middle Atlantic States and perhaps this could yield a shot at some snow and or a wintry mix. But should this be a strong blast of arctic air, it may suppress the system to the south which would mean a cold, but dry weekend. It is possible that a pattern change may be developing in the long term which would mean a snowier and colder second half of winter, which isn’t surprising for La Nina in Philadelphia.

Breaking Records Across The Country

2012-01-07T08:42:00.000-05:00

The past couple of days have featured a parade of record highs across the northern tier of the country and parts of the West Coast thanks to the development of a ridge of high pressure that has moved east across the country in the wake of the early week cold shot that hit the East with record cold. Over 600 record highs were knocked between Thursday and Friday in nearly two dozen states in the western and central portions of the country.

Some of the more impressive records included Minnesota's first 60 degree reading in the first seven days of January as the thermometer cracked 60 in a few towns in Western Minnesota on Thursday afternoon. Other records were smashed in South Dakota, with Philip hitting 74 and Rapid City hitting 73. Warmth in South Dakota is a bit more common in the winter due to the influence of the chinook downslope wind that warms the air downstream of the Rockies and the Black Hills; however, daily records in these places were smashed by 15 or more degrees. Records were also knocked out in the Pacific Northwest...also due to downsloping on southerly and southeasterly winds that helped boost temperatures. Cliff Mass' blog talks about the causes in more detail in the Pacific Northwest.

Today may feature some additional record highs in the Northeast but the ridge responsible for the significant warming is weakening in response to a flattening of the jet stream nationally. Cooler...and more typical temperatures for this time of the year will be forthcoming starting tomorrow in the Northeast.

Is It January or March?

2012-01-07T07:22:00.000-05:00

Temperatures going out the door this morning (or rolling out of bed) are starting on the mild side for many but are quite varied around today -- we have 20's in the coolest spots in the region, some 30's mixed in through many of the suburbs and in Philadelphia, and a couple of lower 40's mixed in places in South Jersey and in the suburbs. Despite the variety of temperatures this morning (under clear skies with light winds) we will see a universal warming throughout the region today that will send temperatures to the upper 50's in much of the Delaware Valley, with a few lower 60's mixed in south of the city for good measure. Philly's projected high of 58 might even be a bit low...wouldn't surprise me to see us hit 60 today at the Airport. Our record high is 65 -- we likely avoid hitting that mark but temperatures that are 20 degrees above average are still a bit noteworthy.

Winds will pick up from the west later on, especially towards midday, and gust to around 20 mph. The wind increase will coincide with a cool front crossing the region later on today. The front lacks a lot of "cold" with it although temperatures tomorrow knock back a few notches...but the downslope effect with the west wind and plenty of sunshine will result in a really mild day. Enjoy!

Weather History: Ice, Ice Baby

2012-01-06T19:44:00.000-05:00

January 1994 was known around here as the month of ice. Several events moved through the Delaware Valley over the course of the month, spreading freezing rain across the immediate city and suburbs...and in some cases, bringing snow to the Lehigh Valley. Philadelphia picked up four inches of snow in January 1994 while Allentown picked up 34", benefiting from its location away from the ocean and having a touch of elevation. The month was also punctuated by an arctic outbreak that brought Philadelphia its last subzero low to the present day on the 19th of January. The first of the ice events occurred on January 3rd and 4th -- a nor'easter that brought a mixed bag of rain and snow to the East Coast and brought some freezing rain to those in the suburbs to the north of Philadelphia. It was an event on the 7th and 8th, however, that caused more significant headaches into the city itself.

The ice storm on the 7th was a minor storm in the scale of storms that have impacted us over the course of our history (a minor low travelling along the jet stream is nothing 'major' in comparison to the Superstorm or a hurricane) but its 0.35" of freezing rain that fell on the 7th and into the predawn hours of January 8th caused a bevy of problems around the Delaware Valley because of its duration, lasting nearly 24 consecutive hours. The satellite image below shows the stream of moisture coming from the Pacific northeast through Texas and into the Mid Atlantic, pulled northeast into the train of weak low pressure that rode along the jet.

Some of the video of the ice storm (above, there are three parts on YouTube that have been submitted) is shown above. The image about three minutes in of Paul Moriarty standing on a vacant Schuylkill Expressway was telling of how the ice was causing problems on area roads.

The atmospheric look shows the fetch of moisture (green shading) stretching from Louisiana and Texas northeast through the Mid Atlantic. The yellow line (the freezing line at 5000' in the atmosphere) was to the city's north but the surface was at or below freezing through much of the region, resulting in our icy encasement. At the peak of the ice storm, nearly 600,000 lost power.

Two years later, almost to the day, the Blizzard of '96 made its own headlines.

January 7th, 2012 Forecast

2012-01-06T15:37:00.012-05:00

Mild air in place today will hold around here into tomorrow before a weak cool front nudges down from the northwest and knocks temperatures back a few degrees. No arctic or wannabe arctic air on the horizon with this front so temperatures in the 40's will replace the 50's that we got today and will get tomorrow. More sustained cold is about a week away, however...

Skies tonight will feature a mix of clouds and stars on a relatively mild night for early January. Low temperatures will range from 30 in the Lehigh Valley to the mid and upper 30's in Center City and points south. We'll warm into the 50's in many locations on Saturday with mostly sunny skies. There will be a touch of a breeze from the west during the day that could gust to 20 mph as the cool front slips through. Despite the front pushing through, temperatures will only drop into the mid 40's on Sunday with mostly sunny skies (just some high clouds around it seems at this point).

For now, we're keeping precipitation out of the forecast for Monday. One of the computer models is trying to slip a southern system into the region on Monday morning with light snow here, rain at the coast. This system is tracked on the vast majority of all computer modeling to remain far enough to our south as to not impact much of the region. If there is a change we'll certainly update you on it over the weekend but as of now odds favor dry over not dry but it may be at a minimum a cloudier day on Monday than what we're forecasting...

Winter Takes A Break

2012-01-06T05:27:00.000-05:00

Winter is taking a bit of a break from its relatively modest impacts on the region so far this winter as milder air slides through the region for today and tomorrow, buoyed by west-southwest winds at the surface and a retreat of the mid level trough that brought us a couple of cold days earlier this week. While our start this morning is pretty frosty around the region -- temperatures generally in the 20's and low 30's -- we will see a mild afternoon as we get a mix of sun and clouds through the day.

Expect high temperatures this afternoon in the 50's -- 54 is our prediction for Philly, with mid 50's common in the Delaware Valley and south (low 50's in the Lehigh Valley). West to southwest breezes at 10 mph could occasionally gust towards 20 but the mild breezes will help boost temperatures and not bring too much of a bite to the air today. No record highs are in danger locally today -- our record high is 73 degrees from 2007 -- so we should be able to avoid the litany of record highs that hit up the Midwest, Plains, and West over the past couple of days. However, winter is retreating after a small invasion for a little while before the chill returns late next week.

Signs Of More Locked In Cold Coming Soon

2012-01-05T20:25:00.000-05:00

The pattern seems to be setting up for another shot of Canadian chill in about a week to ten days from now. Computer modeling over the past couple of days has been relatively consistent in suggesting that we see the final rumination of the mild to warm pattern that dominated December and will dominate this weekend into early next week. One could argue...and frankly, I'll be the one to do it here, that the pattern has been in evolution mode the past week or so since December 23rd/24th and that the upcoming cold look is the full force of the change taking place. Temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday, which were in the 20's both afternoons, were rather cold...so the pattern itself isn't going to shockingly "flip" over to cold from warm...we've been dragged into it and will get fully shoved into it later next week.

The way things look right now -- mild weather looks to hold serve starting Friday and continuing through Wednesday, with a storm system slashing through the East next week bringing rain to I-95, while phasing with a deepening trough from Canada. This interaction sets up the Euro's look for next Saturday (seen below), which is showing a reinforced look of cold over the Eastern US, with the coldest temperature anomalies likely in the Great Lakes or Midwest. Signs are suggesting that a cold blocking pattern sets up for at least a little while -- a period of at least a few days, perhaps up to ten days -- with temperatures similar to those we've dealt with the prior two days. In other words, real winter chill.

The GFS (seen below) from yesterday shows more chill loading up in Western Canada for the week of January 16th. This particular run of the GFS suggests in the lonnnnng range (out towards two weeks) that we get a secondary shot of cold air after the 16th, with cold reinforced in about two weeks' time. In terms of storm threats, it's still far too early to say specifically when/if we get snow but a colder pattern would be more favorable for snow chances...and considering we are now about the enter our snowiest six week stretch of weather on average the potential for snow should be there...eventually. Simply still too early to pin those specifics though.

Obviously much can change between computer modeling and reality but the warm November in December is a thing of the past...we'll swing on the pendulum for another week, perhaps longer...first going milder, then back to the chill we are about to escape from.

January 6th, 2012 Forecast

2012-01-05T19:34:00.000-05:00

We are on an upward swing in temperatures...today marked a transition away from the cold with temperatures that were much more typical for this time of the year. Warmer air is on the way for the next couple of days. While it's not quite shorts weather, it is definitely more typical of the "November in December" theme we had of late.

Tonight: Skies will feature a mix of clouds and stars overall. There could be a flurry or two to the north of the city overnight but any dusting type accumulations do not look likely. Expect lows in the 20's northwest to the low 30's in the city and most places south of town.

Friday: Milder weather hits the region as skies break for some sun and southwest and west breezes at 10 mph boost temperatures into the middle 50's in Philadelphia, with lower to middle 50's common throughout the Delaware Valley. Might be sunroof weather if we cross our fingers!

Weekend Sneak Peek: Saturday features a frontal boundary passing through the region but temperatures will still be mild...expect highs in the lower 50's. That frontal boundary will knock temperatures back a few degrees for Sunday but a mid 40's high on Sunday is still a few degrees above average. All in all, nice weather is expected for the first full weekend of 2012.

Dusted Overnight, Less Harsh Temperatures Today

2012-01-05T04:27:00.000-05:00

Last night's dusting of snow for city, parts of Delco, and South Jersey was the first measurable snow since October 29th around these parts and enough to get the snowstarved teased with a taste of winter. The Airport picked up 0.2" of snow...it's our second biggest snowfall of the winter so far...of course, it's only our second measurable snow to boot. Don't worry, more snow will eventually arrive...probably not for a while yet as the pattern will transition milder for the next couple of days and at least tolerable the majority of the next week. Today is the beginning of that transition as the disturbance responsible for last night's flurries and dusting of snow is out of here, replaced with west breezes and a mix of sun and clouds through the day.

Temperatures are starting out in the 20's to near 30 this morning, similar to a couple of mornings ago. The difference will be that today will feature moderating temperatures and not falling temperatures. Expect highs near 40 in Philly and points north, low 40's south of the city. West breezes at 10-16 mph could occasionally gust to 20 so there will be a bit of chill to the air but we won't see anything along the lines of what we dealt with Tuesday and Tuesday night as chill factors should be near 30 or so this afternoon.

The National Snow-Cover Problem

2012-01-04T18:00:00.000-05:00

2010: 58.1%

2011: 47.8%

2012: 21.7%

The numbers above represent the percentage of the Lower 48 covered in snow on January 4th of those respective years. I think one thing a lot of people fail to really appreciate about the last couple of winters is just how widespread and significant winter weather was on a national level...not just in the Eastern US or even just the Northeast. Winter came and it hit a LOT of people hard the last two years.

The simplest way to look at this is with temperatures and how different 2011-12 has been from 2009-10 and 2010-11. But the most interesting, in my opinion, is to look at snow depth. In the interest of full disclosure, I got the idea for this from a weather blog in Southern Louisiana at KLFY-TV in Lafayette.

Three maps are posted below for you...with the snowpack from January 4th in 2010, 2011, and now 2012. While the numbers above are impressive, the maps are even moreso.

2010

Click to enlarge (Image Credit: http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa)

In 2010, snow cover was incredibly widespread, with coverage all the way south into Mississippi, Arkansas, and Oklahoma, and plenty of mountain snow in the West...especially California and the Cascades. Almost every location north and east of about Oklahoma City, OK had snowpack on January 4th, 2010. 58% is a strong number for snowpack.

2011

Click to enlarge

In 2011, the map is somewhat deceiving. Had I gone back 3 or 4 days, over 50% of the country would have been covered, but with the melting of the Boxing Day Blizzard, only 47.8% was covered in snow. Still, it's extremely impressive, especially when you look at how much snowpack had been laid down in the Sierra, Northern Rockies, and Cascades out west. They got crushed for awhile last year, and even down south into Arizona and New Mexico saw a very frontloaded winter. The Dakotas and Minnesota saw quite a bit too, and of course, this foretold the story of epic flooding in some of those areas that subsequent spring. So 2010 was great for snow lovers, 2011 was solid, then what of 2012?

2012

Click to enlarge

"Anemic" describes it best. And again, this is on a national level. The snow cover you see in the Great Lakes and Appalachians was barely there as of a few days ago. We're at 21.7% of the country covered in snow now. A couple days ago, we were sub-20%. While the aerial coverage certainly is a stark contrast to the last few winters, note some of the more striking changes....out West. Things are a little better in New Mexico and Arizona than is normal, but it's all mostly confined to the high terrain. It's hit hard in spots out in those areas and further north, but it hasn't really gone widespread. California is hurting terribly this winter. After a great 2010 and an almost Biblical 2011, 2012 has been horrendous for ski resorts an'll d water supply. Thankfully, there was enough in 2011 to carry over into 2012 for water supplies, which is great news. But California snow water equivalent is at 19% of normal, over the entire Sierra!

The US has been flooded by Pacific air and mild conditions all winter. At best, cold air intrusions have been brief and not with much moisture. Most of the snow has fallen, as you can tell, up in British Columbia, even a little moreso than the last couple winters. Alaska has been frigid, with incredible cold. That's a tell-tale sign of problems getting widespread snow and winter in the Lower 48...and until that breaks down, the snow drought continues. Until that breaks down, I say? As you'll be hearing more about in the coming days I'm sure, that may finally be in the process of actually breaking down. Tom will have more on this possible change for you tomorrow.

The national snow drought might not last the entirety of winter, but the first half has certainly been something impressive!

January 5th, 2012 Forecast

2012-01-04T14:59:00.000-05:00

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with flurries possible. This morning's low was 14 degrees in Philadelphia, but tonight will not be as cold with lows in the lower to mid-20s which is normal for this time of year. Southwest winds will shift from the west-southwest at 5 to 10 mph. The sunset this evening is at 4:49 PM.

Thursday: After a chance of morning flurries, expect a mix of clouds and sun. High in the lower 40s. Winds will be out of the west at 5 to 15 mph with gusts around 20 mph.

Friday: Partly cloudy and milder. High near 50 degrees.

Saturday: Mix of sun and clouds, warmer. High in the lower 50s.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy and cooler with a 40 percent chance of rain. High in the mid-40s.

Thursday Planner

7 AM 26 degrees, Flurries

Noon 38 degrees, Mix of Clouds & Sun

3 PM high 42 degrees

5 PM 40 degrees, Not As Cold

Sunrise 7:23 AM

Sunset 4:50 PM

Brr...inging In Wednesday On A Cold Note

2012-01-04T07:36:00.000-05:00

As of 7 AM, lows across the region are the coldest we've seen since January 24th of last year, when Philadelphia dropped down to 8 degrees for a low. The morning low of 14 is quite a bit colder than any previous morning we've dealt with and exceeds yesterday's "midnight low" of 19 (set just before Midnight last night) by five degrees. Temperatures were in the single digits as close to us as Doylestown and Quakertown, both of which dropped to 9 this morning. Teens were the rule for morning lows south/east of I-95, with lows near 10 in Reading and Pottstown to our north/west.

The coldest lows, not surprisingly, were up north in the Poconos where morning lows dropped to five in Wilkes-Barre and four in Mount Pocono. Below zero temperatures occurred in Bradford (northern tier of Pennsylvania), with a low of -11 and in Binghamton, NY (low of -1 through 7 AM).

Yesterday's high of 33 and low of 19 in Philadelphia were the coldest day to average locally (seven degrees below normal) since October 30th, 2011.

Coldest Morning Of Winter So Far, Coldest Day Ahead

2012-01-04T06:39:00.000-05:00

It's quite cold out this morning in the Delaware Valley -- temperatures have dropped into the teens, with single digits in Bucks County and the Lehigh Valley. Temperatures this morning for everyone are the coldest they have been so far this winter as the brunt of Canadian chill is completely being felt throughout the Mid Atlantic. With modest breezes, the wind chill factor is near or even slightly below zero in a few spots. Temperatures, thankfully, will gradually improve through the day but it will be the coldest day of winter so far. Expect high temperatures in the upper 20's, with low 30's south of the city this afternoon. The wind, which was a factor in the last couple of days, will not be as gusty today and will generally average out around 10 mph.

Skies start clear for most this morning but clouds will increase towards midday and into the afternoon hours as a weak clipper-type low passes to our north. It will send a wave of energy through the Great Lakes, agitating the sky (clouds) and triggering a few flurries in spots. The best chance of any flurry activity sets up to our north but anyone has at least a chance of getting a few moments of flurries later on this afternoon and this evening.

The Wacky Year In Weather, Caught On Video

2012-01-03T22:38:00.001-05:00

2011 had its share of meteorological mayhem moments caught on video and shared for the world through YouTube. From upset and cranky weathermen complaining about a lack of airtime to bloopers to just unique and bizarre, 2011 had its moments that epitomized a wacky year.

Here are arguably the three weirdest moments of weather blooperness. The first two were live "on air" in television, with the third just a wacky moment of serenity for the equine world. First, to LA where Henry DiCarlo wasn't happy about his lack of air time when he had to do a live interview.

Second, stupidity knows no bounds, not even during Irene. In 2008, the "Ike Bear" roamed Galveston. This year, the Virginia Streaker ran the streets during Irene (video below may not be suitable for work).

Last, turn around and don't drown seems to not apply to horse and buggy. This was from Kutztown in the wake of Irene.

January 4th, 2012 Forecast

2012-01-03T17:21:00.002-05:00

Tonight: Philadelphia will approach some of the coolest temperatures it has seen all winter tonight as temperatures dip into the teens. Skies will be mostly clear, but conditions will be breezy as 15-20 mph winds are forecast.

Tomorrow: Cloudy skies are forecast for tomorrow with a slight chance of flurries and maybe even a snow shower in the afternoon. Highs will fall in the upper 20s and winds will be from the west at 10 mph.

Cold Shot Hits Florida As Well

2012-01-03T10:59:00.025-05:00

Temperatures throughout the eastern half of the nation are trending colder with this cold shot. For a year that's been generally winterless so far, the current cold shot is a not-so-friendly reminder of what "typical" winters are like. This shot of chill is impacting the Southeast as well, with the potential for below freezing temperatures down into portions of South Florida (away from the water) for tonight.

The NAM is projecting lows in the 20's (the teal-ish shade) for areas north of Fort Myers, with low 30's possible down into the northern fringes of the Everglades late tonight and tomorrow morning, with much of the region under various frost and freeze advisories through tomorrow morning as well. Temperatures this morning in the Sunshine State were in the 30's and 40's at daybreak but were accompanied by very low dew points (single digits and low teens north of I-4 in Central Florida), with wind chills at or below freezing. Not much worse than us but for them, it is a bit more "biting".

Such chill is not unprecedented for South Florida in short stretches -- you might remember how chilly temperatures in the Southeast two winters ago endangered Florida's manatee population because of consistent and persistent relative cold for South Florida. However, short-lived cold snaps like this one are not out of the ordinary...and for this region they will see temperatures quickly rebound by week's end as high temperatures in Miami will approach 80 degrees, slightly above their average high of 76 for this time of the year.

Coldest Day Of 2012 (And Winter!) So Far

2012-01-03T04:08:00.000-05:00

Snark alert...today's high temperatures will likely be the lowest we've seen in 2012 so far. Considering yesterday's midnight high of 49 and Sunday's high of 54 are a good 15 and 20 degrees warmer than what we'll see today, it's a pretty silly but accurate statement. It's also going to be the coldest daytime high of winter so far as well as our daytime highs will likely only get just above freezing at the Airport, with many locations not even cracking 30 as a reinforcing shot of Nunavut chill is pushing into the region this morning.

Temperatures are starting out in the upper 20's and around 30 at the very early hour of this post and will move little through the morning hours, even falling this afternoon slightly as gusty northwest winds at 15-25 mph help drive wind chills into the teens and low 20's locally during the "warmest" portions of the day, probably into the single digits to our north as we work into the evening hours. Skies will feature a mix of sun and clouds through the day, with clouds increasing in coverage this afternoon thanks to the lake effect machine firing up and with an upper disturbance moving past to our north. The combination of those two factors will fire up flurries that could move through nearly any location, with snow showers possible farther north and west of the city. The wind and the reinforced chill will set up the coldest night of the winter season so far in the region as lows will crash into the teens for many, with single digits in the Poconos.

Coldest Night So Far Tomorrow Night

2012-01-02T21:12:00.013-05:00

As Brian pointed out in our forecast earlier this afternoon tomorrow night is going to be a cold night with a low at the Airport projected to be 17 degrees. It will be the coldest night of the winter season so far, easily besting the 26 we had a week ago.

How cold can it get? This is the NAM computer model prediction for 7 AM on Wednesday morning. The magenta shade are single digit temperatures, with the light blue readings in the teens. If the NAM is correct the entire region will get into the teens, with mid teens into the suburbs (perhaps 13, 14 for a low down to King of Prussia), with lower teens into the Lehigh Valley (maybe 10, 11 at Allentown).

Single digit lows would be confined to the Poconos. However, with winds remaining a factor for much of Tuesday as temperatures remain chilly we could see some single digit wind chills into the Lehigh Valley, perhaps the outer suburbs on Tuesday night before winds subside later on at night. In a winter where cold has been limited and minor in nature, this upcoming blast of chill will certainly bring a healthy reminder of the potential of cold air in early January.

January 3rd, 2012 Forecast

2012-01-02T13:26:00.001-05:00

Tonight: A mix of clouds and stars with flurries or a snow shower possible, especially north and west of the city. It will be a breezy and seasonably cold night. The normal low for this time of year is 27 degrees. Lows tonight will drop between 21 and 26 degrees. Winds will be out of the west at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Wind chills will be between 5 and 10 degrees. The sunset this evening is at 4:47 PM.

Tuesday: A mix of clouds and sun with flurries possible. The high will be around 30 degrees. There will be a cold wind out of the northwest at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Wind chills will be between 10 and 15 degrees.

Wednesday: Increasing clouds with less wind. It will still be cold with a high in the lower 30s.

Thursday: A mix of clouds and sun. It won't be as cold with a high in the lower 40s.

Tuesday Planner

7 AM 26 degrees, Cold Wind

11 AM high 30 degrees

Noon 29 degrees, Flurries Possible

5 PM 26 degrees, Wind Chills 10 to 15 degrees

Sunrise 7:23 AM

Sunset 4:48 PM

2011 in Statistical Form

2012-01-02T10:55:00.001-05:00

2011 is finally, mercifully, in the books. The wettest year on record, the 4th warmest year on record, and so much more. The statistics for this year are lengthy, with many records broken in many locations throughout the Delaware Valley. Summing up the year in weather in cliff's notes, short attention fashion would be to simply say wet, wacky, wild, warm. Those four probably sum it up the best.

Click on graphic to see in full size (800 px)

Wet -- This was the wettest year on record in Philadelphia (64.33"), breaking both old records from 1867 (before the National Weather Service records started in 1872) and 1996 (the "official" record). Other wet records were set in Allentown (71.72") and Harrisburg (73.73"). Those wet records were approached in Mount Pocono (2nd wettest), Trenton (4th wettest), Reading (4th wettest), and Wilmington (5th wettest).

Wacky & Wild -- May the top ten weather stories (in our eyes) of 2011 suffice. These probably sum it up best for the region over the past year. There are plenty of wild and wacky weather stories nationally -- the severe outbreaks, flooding rains, heat, and even some cold. In terms of temperature spread, Philadelphia's spread of 95 degrees from its highest high (103 on July 22nd) and its lowest low (8 on January 24th) is the highest spread we've had in temperature over the course of the year since 1995 (98 degree spread between a low of 5 and a high of 103). The all time single year temperature spread is 113 degrees (102 high, -11 low) set in 1934, a record that arguably is one of the toughest to break given that -11 is the gold standard of record low temperatures in this city.

Warm -- This was the 4th warmest year since 1872 in Philadelphia, with an average temperature of 57.68 degrees, coming in about a half of a degree below 1931 (the warmest on record). Ten of the twelve months in 2011 were above average, including the hottest July on record this year. Around the region, it was the warmest year on record in Atlantic City (average temp of 57.1 bested the old mark from 1953 by about a half degree) and in Trenton (56.6 bested the old mark of 56.2 set just last year) second warmest on record in Mount Pocono, and ninth warmest in Reading.

You can view all of the climate data for Philadelphia from 2011 and before at our climate page.

Windy Winter Classic

2012-01-02T06:41:00.000-05:00

Winter returns with a bit of a vengeance today on the strength of gusty west winds. While temperatures this morning aren't terribly cold by any stretch -- mainly between 35 and 40 in most locations -- the wind is and will be a factor all day, helping to nudge wind chills down several degrees from the actual air temperature. Winds today will range between 15-25 mph on the sustained side, gusting occasionally over 30 in many spots.

Temperatures won't move much today -- we'll probably coax a return to 40 degrees in the city late this morning and hold out near or just above 40 for the midday hours before slipping south later this afternoon. Skies will feature a mix of clouds and sunshine through the day -- more sun this morning, more clouds this afternoon as a reinforcing shot of chill approaches the region. Flurries are possible west of I-81 and north of I-80 later today thanks to dying lake effect bands.

The chill is certainly going to be in full force tomorrow with high temperatures likely to avoid the freezing mark in many spots north and west of the city both days, probably avoiding it in the city as well.

Recapping December 2011

2012-01-01T19:50:00.000-05:00

December 2011 was the fifth warmest on record in Philadelphia, featuring a monthly average temperature of 43.3 degrees and a departure of nearly six degrees from average. Temperatures were only cold in a few spikes, generally around the 10th, 18th, and 29th; otherwise, the rest of the month was an old fashioned November in December month as temperatures cracked 60 on five occasions. That itself wasn't a record (the record of 60+ days is eight set in 1998) but a persistent lack of atmospheric blocking and persistent upper level ridge of high pressure over the South helped bring on a much less wintry month.

In terms of rainfall, we picked up 4.37" of rain in Philadelphia and did not record any snow at the Airport, the first time since 2001 we avoided getting even a trace of snow. After two Decembers of over ten inches of snow and a record-breaking snow in 2009, we definitely swung the snow pendulum the other direction. The 4.37" of rain was above 30-year averages but below the average of the last ten years (4.42"). Much of the rain that fell during the month occurred in two shots -- one on the 7th and 8th (2.11") and the other on the 22nd and 23rd (1.39"). The rest of the month was tranquil and generally mild.

Frosty Changes Forthcoming

2012-01-01T18:10:00.002-05:00

We're nudging down from a mild high of 54 degrees and we won't sniff that in the temperature department for a week as winter comes back with a bite tomorrow, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Showers in association with the cold front that's bringing that frosty change are working through the region this evening, having come through in a couple of rounds so far and with the main front itself still off to the west in association with one final band that as of 6 PM is stretching from State College on south.

Showers will continue to push east and east-northeast for the next couple of hours, with the last line of rain crossing through after 9 or 10 PM this evening. A few rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out along the Shore as well as there seems to be a bit of instability down there this evening. Winds will remain up through the night, switching from the south to the west and gusty at times through the night. In terms of total rainfall, not much will be expected but it will make the transition back into winter for the region.

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